Insight
What the Italian election means for the EU by Luigi Scazzieri 18 April 2018
The Italian election complicates the EU’s reform agenda. If the EU engages with the Five Star Movement, Rome could yet play a constructive role. But if Brussels fails to win over disillusioned Italians, the consequences for the EU could be serious. Italy’s election last month was a watershed moment. The incumbent centre-left Democratic Party collapsed, while the anti-immigration and eurosceptic League performed very well and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement became the kingmaker of Italian politics. Three factors drove the vote: dissatisfaction with old elites, a decline in living standards and the migration crisis. An important compounding factor was a perceived lack of European solidarity with regards to the eurozone and the migration crisis: Italians have become much more critical of the EU than they were prior to 2008. However, the vote was not a clear-cut victory for euroscepticism. The Five Star Movement, which topped the polls with about one third of the vote, has an ambiguous stance towards the EU, with leader Luigi Di Maio defining the party as pro-European, and reportedly preparing to leave the eurosceptic EEFD group in the European Parliament. Italian euroscepticism is not yet virulent, but many Italians feel the EU does not work for them. Coalition talks are underway, but it is not yet clear what government will eventually emerge. The lack of a clear winner suggests a broad government of national unity could be the likeliest outcome. Other options are also possible. One is a coalition between the Five Star Movement, the League and possibly also former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia. This would require some political acrobatics, and it is likely that a compromise figure would become prime minister. Other are a coalition between the League, Forza Italia and part of the Democratic Party; or a coalition between the Five Star Movement and parts of the Democratic Party. Italy’s election adds a new layer of difficulty to the EU’s reform agenda. The weakness of the mainstream parties and likely inclusion of the Five Star Movement and the League in government further complicates eurozone reform. It is unclear whether the French and German visions for overhauling the bloc were compatible in the first place. Emmanuel Macron has called for sweeping reforms, including the creation CER INSIGHT: What the Italian election means for the EU 18 April 2018
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