Insight
Trump and the Iran deal: Not yet the nuclear option? by Luigi Scazzieri 13 December 2017
Trump has placed the international nuclear agreement with Iran in jeopardy. The EU should try to save the deal, but be prepared in case it fails. The leading international powers congratulated themselves in 2015 on curbing Iran’s nuclear weapons programme with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the ‘Iran deal’. But in October, US President Donald Trump ‘decertified’ Iranian compliance with the agreement, placing it in jeopardy. Trump called the JCPOA “one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into”. This move was criticised by the other signatories: the EU sharply condemned Trump’s decision while China and Russia argued that Tehran was abiding by the terms of the JCPOA. The decision to decertify Iran’s compliance did not kill the deal. Trump passed the buck to Congress, encouraging it to ‘’fix’’ the deal or re-impose sanctions on Tehran. Congress had until December 12th to re-impose sanctions under an expedited procedure – but was not obliged to. But Congress seems to have little appetite for re-imposing sanctions, as it has missed the deadline. It has also been unable to reach agreement over how to fix the deal. Unless Trump responds by immediately deciding to re-impose sanctions, all eyes will be on January 2018. The terms of the JCPOA require the US President to waive sanctions regularly – with the next waiver expiring in January. It is possible that Trump may choose to re-impose at least some sanctions. If the US re-imposed sanctions on Iran, the JCPOA would be severely undermined. But even if Congress and Trump do not impose sanctions in the immediate future, the future of the deal is uncertain. Trump’s unpredictability and long-standing hostility to the deal make it possible that at some point in the future he will torpedo the deal – and there are plenty of Republicans in Congress who would support that move. This uncertainty means international business will steer clear of Iran, which will limit the already small economic benefits of the lifting of sanctions. In time, this is likely to prompt the Iranians to lose interest in the agreement, as its economic benefits were the main selling point.
CER INSIGHT: Trump and the Iran deal: not yet the nuclear option? 13 December 2017
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