Insight
EU has little choice but to try to keep the Iran deal alive by Luigi Scazzieri 11 May 2018
The EU is unlikely to risk a major confrontation with the US over the Iran deal. But even small steps can help buy time and preserve the deal. US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the international agreement designed to stop Iran developing a nuclear weapon, was hardly a surprise. Trump has always opposed the deal, ‘decertifying’ Iranian compliance in December 2017. In January he set May as the deadline to fix the deal, and American and European diplomats had been working to address his concerns and keep it alive. They had made progress on substantive issues, including the International Atomic Energy Association’s (IAEA) access to nuclear sites, Iranian missile development, and Iran’s destabilising actions in the Middle East. But negotiators found it impossible to agree on how to address the JCPOA’s ‘sunset clauses’ – the fact that limits on Iranian enrichment begin to expire in January 2026. The failure to agree to a ‘fix’ by the May deadline prompted Trump to pull out of the JCPOA. His stated aim is to force Tehran to renegotiate the agreement, finding a ‘real, comprehensive, and lasting solution to the Iranian nuclear threat’. Trump judges that sanctions and aggressive military posturing have brought North Korea to the table to discuss denuclearisation, and thinks he can replicate this approach with Iran. Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain welcomed Trump’s decision. European leaders criticized the move and stated that they would uphold the deal. The Iranian response was also measured, with President Rouhani stating that the deal could remain in place if its remaining signatories found ways to co-operate. The deal has now entered a grey area. There is still time for last-minute moves: Trump’s decision not to renew US sanctions waivers does not mean that sanctions will be re-imposed immediately. Some, such as those on civil aviation, dealings in Iranian currency, and precious metals will be re-imposed in 90 days. The most damaging sanctions, on Iranian oil, banking, and shipping, will be re-imposed in 180 days.
CER INSIGHT: EU has little choice but to try to keep the Iran deal alive 11 May 2018
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