Insight
Taking a hard line with Italy may do the EU more harm than good by Luigi Scazzieri 10 June 2019
The European Parliament elections destabilised Italy’s coalition government, by weakening the Five Star Movement and strengthening the League. The EU should avoid giving populists an excuse to lash out, or it may find itself with an even more eurosceptic government in Rome. The European Parliament elections last month were a key test for Rome’s coalition government between Matteo Salvini’s right-wing, anti-immigration League and the populist Five Star Movement (5S). The result was a profound shift in the country’s political landscape: the League doubled its share of the vote compared to the March 2018 general election to 34 per cent. In contrast, 5S lost half of its votes, with its support halving to 17 per cent. The centre-left Democratic Party made up for some of the ground lost in 2018, securing just over 20 per cent. Meanwhile, Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia looks like a spent force, with less than 10 per cent of the vote. The two parties in the governing coalition maintained their combined votes share, but the power within has shifted strongly to the League. For now, the coalition just about endures. A collapse now would mean voting in the middle of the summer holidays, which would reduce turnout, and Salvini is wary of pulling the plug, as the public might consider him to be throwing the country into crisis out of personal ambition. Nor would the government’s fall necessarily lead to snap elections that the League might win. Italy’s president would first gauge whether a new majority was possible. The numbers in parliament are such that the centre-left opposition and the 5S could form a coalition. Although they currently say they would prefer elections, there is a chance both the 5S and the centre-left could change their mind if the government falls and they are faced with a high likelihood of defeat. The political distance between the two parties has shrunk: the Democratic Party has shifted to the left after Matteo Renzi stood down as leader. Meanwhile, parts of the 5S have always looked favourably on an alliance with the left, and an agreement with the Democratic Party may seem even more appealing following their bruising experience of governing with the League. The possibility of a 5S-Democratic Party coalition, even if unlikely, explains Salvini’s apparent reticence to try to capitalise on his strong position. Additionally, Salvini would prefer to steer clear of an alliance with Berlusconi, and a League-led coalition may not win a majority without Forza Italia’s votes. Therefore, Salvini stated he will try to continue governing with the 5S, on condition that they stop stalling on the CER INSIGHT: Taking a hard line with Italy may do the EU more harm than good 10 June 2019
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