Insight
How should the EU react to Britain’s general election? by Simon Tilford and John Springford 15 June 2017
The EU-27 can force Britain’s politicians to acknowledge Brexit’s trade-offs, by offering the British four options from which it must choose. The EU has a strong interest in forcing Britain’s politicians to come clean about the trade-offs facing the country. Almost a year after the Brexit referendum, British eurosceptics, the Conservative government and much of the opposition Labour Party continue to downplay Brexit’s painful dilemmas – or deny that they exist. The EU needs Britain to have a debate about how much economic and political damage the country is prepared to inflict upon itself to end freedom of movement, and how Britain can continue to enjoy deep economic integration with the EU-27 without shared rules, updated by political institutions, and enforced by a common court. Only once Britain engages in an honest national debate about the options will it be possible for the British to agree on a coherent negotiating position, and for the EU to negotiate with it. The EU-27 could help by publishing four options for Britain to choose from early in the negotiations, forcing British politicians to stop avoiding Brexit’s hard truths. Brexiters are plain wrong to argue that the EU has no interest in a soft Brexit, or that the EU is determined to punish Britain. While Britain would be the principal loser from quitting the EU, it is hard to see what the EU would gain either. The optimal outcome for the EU (and for Britain, of course) would be Britain to rethink and remain in the EU. This would also constitute a major propaganda victory for the EU, and help cement the Union’s resurgent self-confidence. Bar that, the best outcome for the EU would be maintaining as close ties with Britain as possible. But the EU also needs a politically sustainable outcome – and one that does not give Britain a better deal than it had within the EU. Put bluntly: Britain cannot be a member of the single market without continuing to abide fully – without fudges – by the four freedoms of goods, capital, services and labour, with the ECJ enforcing those freedoms. The EU has responded to the political chaos by upping the pressure on Britain to start the negotiations on time. If Theresa May persists with an uncompromising approach to the negotiations, the EU has
CER INSIGHT: HOW SHOULD THE EU REACT TO BRITAIN’S GENERAL ELECTION? 15 June 2017
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