Insight
Theresa May’s Irish trilemma by John Springford 7 March 2018
Theresa May must choose two of the following three options: an exit from the single market and customs union, no hard border with Ireland, and an all-UK approach to Brexit. It has been a busy few weeks for Brexit watchers, with two speeches by Theresa May, one each by Boris Johnson and Liam Fox, and the publication by the European Commission of their draft withdrawal treaty, and the European Council’s draft guidelines on the future relationship. The two sides agree that the economic relationship will be a free trade agreement, but disagree on its scope and depth. And the Irish border issue still threatens to bring the negotiations down. That is because the EU is pushing the UK into a ‘trilemma’, which means that it can only choose two of three options: leaving the single market and customs union, maintaining a border-free Ireland, and pursuing a whole-UK approach to Brexit.
Chart 1: The Irish trilemma Single market and customs union exit
Whole UK Brexit
CER INSIGHT: Theresa May’s Irish trilemma 7 March 2018
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No Irish border
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