Insight
Brexit deal done – now for the hard part by John Springford 15 November 2018
Theresa May’s Brexit deal offers some crumbs to Tory hardliners, the DUP and soft Brexiteers. But if the deal passes through parliament, a UK-EU customs union is likely. In the knowledge that no deal was not an option, Theresa May has agreed a withdrawal deal that is on the EU’s terms, but gives a little something for various factions in parliament. However, it is far from clear whether it will be enough to satisfy them. The woolly political declaration points towards a single market exit, with talk of a “free trade area”, and financial services trade being governed by unilateral equivalence decisions rather than joint rules. That is the result of her – and her country’s – desire to end free movement, and the Tory right’s distaste being subject to EU laws. The withdrawal agreement includes most of the EU’s Northern Ireland protocol from March, which she had rejected, saying that no prime minister would ever sign up to it. But it is complemented by a customs union for the whole UK and EU. That customs union would prevent the tariff and quota checks for goods crossing the Irish Sea, in the hope that the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) will support the deal. A customs backstop might also pose some problems for Labour – since it is their policy to negotiate one if they form a government, and journalists will ask why they will reject a deal in parliament that includes one. However, since the agreement is largely on the EU’s terms, it only provides some crumbs for supporters of hard or soft Brexit. EU officials described the backstop as a ‘swimming pool Brexit’, with the UK as a whole in the shallow end of a customs union, and Northern Ireland in the deep end, participating in the single market for goods – if there is no other agreement on the future relationship that prevents a hard border returning to the island of Ireland by the end of the transition period. Yet the customs union is extremely minimal. If the backstop is triggered, the UK will maintain the EU’s tariff regime, which prevents customs checks in the Irish sea and between Great Britain and the continent. But the backstop does not cover regulatory agreements between the EU and the UK, such as free movement for lorry drivers, agrifood
CER INSIGHT: Brexit deal done – now for the hard part 15 November 2018
info@cer.EU | WWW.CER.EU
1