Insight
Why Brexiters should get behind Philip Hammond’s transition by John Springford 1 August 2017
A comprehensive transition that includes continued membership of the single market and customs union is ultimately in the interest of hardliners in the British government. Once four facts have been established, it should become clear to pro-Brexit ministers that they should enthusiastically champion Philip Hammond’s transition plan. Last week, Hammond said he would be seeking a transition that preserved membership of the single market and the customs union, after the UK leaves the EU in March 2019. He reportedly told business leaders that the government was planning an “off the shelf” transition, tacitly accepting that free movement would continue during this period. The facts are these: first, a transition is needed because a trade deal with the EU will take longer to negotiate than the time available under the terms of Article 50. And the EU will not allow Britain to opt out of free movement but continue to enjoy the benefits of the other pillars of the single market during that transition. Second, if Britain went over the cliff-edge, leaving the EU in 2019 without a transition deal in place, the sudden rise of trade barriers would cause chaos. An economic and political crisis would be inevitable, and it is hard to see how the Conservative government could survive. Third, membership of the European Economic Area (EEA) would be politically intolerable as a final deal, because Britain would be less sovereign than it would be as a full member with voting rights in the EU’s institutions. Fourth, since ‘no deal’ is too costly and EEA membership politically untenable, the only sustainable Brexit outcomes are a trade deal that falls far short of single market membership – or Britain changing its mind before March 2019, and remaining a member of the EU.
CER INSIGHT: WHY BREXITERS SHOULD GET BEHIND PHILIP HAMMOND’S TRANSITION 1 August 2017
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