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Ukraine’s progress towards NATO membership: Going from Bucharest to Vilnius without moving? by Ian Bond, 8 June 2023 At its upcoming Vilnius summit, NATO is likely to offer Ukraine a closer relationship than before, but less than full membership. That will be a mistake: NATO should extend its defence guarantee to all Ukrainian-administered territory. When they met in Bucharest in April 2008, NATO leaders discussed the membership aspirations of Georgia and Ukraine and declared “these countries will become members of NATO”, but gave them no timetable or road map to joining the alliance. Fifteen years later, as NATO leaders prepare to meet in Vilnius on July 11th and 12th, allies seem to be coalescing around offering Ukraine an as-yet undefined closer relationship with NATO, while putting off membership, again, for a future that may never come. In Bucharest, the US was the main cheerleader for incorporating Georgia and Ukraine into the alliance; this time it seems to be one of the main obstacles – though there are plenty of others. The current NATO position gives Russia a de facto veto over Ukraine’s future foreign policy orientation and its accession to the alliance: as long as Russia occupies some Ukrainian territory, refuses to make peace and keeps the war bubbling with occasional attacks, NATO will continue to say that Ukraine is an unsuitable candidate for immediate membership. US hesitation gives Vladimir Putin hope that one day, with a friendlier president in the White House, the West will stop supporting Ukraine militarily and Kyiv will have no choice but to surrender to him. NATO’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said recently that everyone agreed that Ukraine would become a member, but added “to become a member in the midst of war is not on the agenda and that is not the issue. The issue is more what happens when the war ends, in one way or another”. To many allies, including the US, offering a security guarantee to a country at war with the nuclear power next door seems too risky. But NATO leaders should think again. Bringing Ukraine into NATO as quickly as possible, along with the other countries caught between the alliance and Russia, would be a better way of stabilising the region than the various alternatives proposed. Putin’s preferred option of the total surrender of Ukraine and its subjugation to Russia is no longer achievable, if it ever was. The fantasy, entertained by a few commentators in Ukraine and the West, of CER INSIGHT: UKRAINE’S PROGRESS TOWARDS NATO MEMBERSHIP: GOING FROM BUCHAREST TO VILNIUS WITHOUT MOVING? 8 June 2023
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