Insight
You can leave Afghanistan, but will Afghanistan leave you? by Ian Bond and Luigi Scazzieri, 19 August 2021
The Taliban’s victory is a disaster for Western policy, but it is not the end of the story. The West must now work hard to mitigate the fallout. The news from Afghanistan is grim: diplomats burning embassy archives before fleeing to the airport; desperate Afghans trying to get out of the country; and reports of the Taliban assaulting women and executing people who worked for the old government or Western organisations. Western leaders will want to draw a veil over this huge policy failure as soon as possible. US President Joe Biden’s August 16th broadcast to the American people – which blamed the Afghan authorities for the defeat and described America’s involvement as “a military action that should have ended long ago” – was clearly intended to mark a break with 20 years of intervention. But it would be morally bankrupt and strategically foolish for Western leaders to turn their backs on Afghanistan. They need to assist Afghans (particularly refugees); prepare for regional instability; and persuade partners and adversaries alike that the West will recover from this setback. The first priority should be helping those Afghans who have worked with Western governments, or with foreign aid agencies, NGOs or media organisations, to leave the country if they want to. Some (such as former interpreters for Western forces) will be more exposed, but despite some reassuring noises about women’s rights and pardons for opponents, all are vulnerable to the Taliban’s revenge. The speed of the Taliban’s victory has prevented Western governments from completing planned evacuations. Flights out will be possible as long as Western military forces hold Kabul airport. But Western countries will need to negotiate safe passage for departing Afghans with the Taliban, and speed up the issue of visas to priority groups. Next, Western governments and donor organisations including the EU will have to decide what kind of relations to have with the Taliban, and what kind of humanitarian and economic development programmes to run in and for Afghanistan. Before 2001, the Taliban never controlled the whole of Afghanistan. Western governments hedged their bets, and maintained contacts with the opposition Northern Alliance. This time, there seems little doubt that the Taliban will control the whole country, at least nominally. Western governments will have to deal with them as Afghanistan’s de facto government, and engage with them when providing aid. CER INSIGHT: You can leave Afghanistan, but will Afghanistan leave you? 19 August 2021
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