Insight
Trump and Europe: The sun sets on the West by Ian Bond 9 November 2016
Donald Trump’s election will strain the transatlantic partnership. Populism in Europe and the US will threaten post-Cold War security and prosperity. Europe will need to work with Trump and to hedge against risks. Donald Trump has achieved a stunning victory in America’s presidential election in the teeth of pollsters, the Democratic Party and much of the Republican establishment. He may put America first, but the ‘leader of the free world’ (if he aspires to live up to the title) will have a potentially enormous impact on Europe (and the rest of the world) as well. Trump’s foreign policy statements have often been incoherent, but there are a number of recurrent themes. They are not reassuring for America’s allies. The international liberal economic order has relied on partnership between America, the EU and Asia-Pacific countries like Japan and Australia. Even if President Obama wanted other countries and international organisations to take on more responsibility for global problems, America has long seen its engagement with the world as win-win. Trump, like Russian President Vladimir Putin, sees relationships with foreign countries as zero sum. Trump’s statements during the campaign have implied that if America’s allies – or economic rivals like China – benefit from their relationship with the US, then America must be losing out. That is a bad basis for future partnership. On the security front, Trump has repeatedly suggested that America’s defence of its allies in Europe and Asia is for their benefit, not America’s, and that they should therefore pay for the protection the US offers. He has suggested that he would look at getting rid of NATO (though on other occasions he has said that the US should not pull out). NATO countries should certainly invest more in their own defence; but the essence of the alliance is that the threats members face are shared and that they need a joint response. Trump caused shudders in Europe (especially Central Europe and the Baltic States) when he implied that he would decide whether NATO allies were contributing enough to their own defence before responding if one of them was attacked; one of his campaign surrogates, former Speaker of the House of Representatives Newt Gingrich, described Estonia, a NATO ally, as “in the suburbs of St Petersburg”, and questioned whether the US should risk nuclear war to defend it. Russia’s Duma (lower house of parliament) burst into applause at the news of Trump’s victory: they think it is also a victory for Russia. CER INSIGHT: TRUMP AND EUROPE: THE SUN SETS ON THE WEST 9 November 2016
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