Insight
No shock in Russian election: But can Europe surprise Putin? by Ian Bond 26 March 2018
After his re-election, the West is more likely to face Putin the aggressive nationalist than Putin the economic reformer. It should respond firmly. Russia’s presidential ‘elections’ lacked the element of suspense that most democratic elections have. Russians, and the rest of the world, have known ever since President Vladimir Putin said that he was running again that he would win. The only question was by how much, and how many people would vote. The more interesting – and worrying – questions for the West are first, what he will do with his new mandate; and second, how to respond. By preventing the only credible opposition candidate, Aleksei Navalniy, from standing, Putin ensured that his margin of victory would be very large. He won more than 75 per cent of the votes cast, compared with 64 per cent in the 2012 election. Turnout was also higher than last time, at 67 per cent, versus 65 per cent. This is a suspiciously high figure, given Navalniy’s call for a boycott, the lacklustre campaign and the obviously predetermined result. It relied at least in part on blatant ballot stuffing, some of it carried out right in front of the CCTV cameras in polling stations. The cameras were installed to prevent a repetition of the electoral fraud that took place in the Duma (parliamentary) elections in 2011. Then, election rigging led to street protests in Moscow. This time, the population seems to be entirely apathetic, resigned to six more years of Putin. According to the Russian constitution, this should be Putin’s last term in office. He himself indicated in post-election comments that he did not want to stay in power till he was 100 (he is currently 65), and that he was not planning to change the constitution “for now” – which perhaps gives him room to change his mind later. But he has returned to power without having had to defend his record over the last 18 years, let alone set out a manifesto for his next term. Apart from finding a successor who will protect his interests – or concluding after a search that he cannot risk stepping down – does Putin have a ‘Six Year Plan’? CER INSIGHT: NO SHOCK IN RUSSIAN ELECTION: BUT CAN EUROPE SURPRISE PUTIN? 26 March 2018
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