Insight
Could Germany end up with a minority government? by Christian Odendahl 4 September 2017
The SPD has probably bottomed out and a centre-right coalition might not have the numbers. But neither the SPD nor the Greens are keen on the junior role under Merkel. One really feels for foreign journalists having to cover the German election: the campaign is under way, but the Social Democrats (SPD) struggle to make themselves heard and Angela Merkel tries to campaign as little as possible – she knows that a dull campaigning season should tilt the odds in her favour. Yesterday’s TV debate, the only one between Merkel and her challenger, Martin Schulz, was so dull that a seasoned British journalist called it one of the most depressing political experiences of his life. Schulz failed to dent Merkel’s popularity and boost his own, meaning that the next chancellor will almost certainly be Angela Merkel. The debate in Germany will now shift to which coalition will govern Germany after September 24th 2017. Will the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) govern with the SPD once more, or join forces with The Greens and/or the Free Democrats (FDP)? However, the next German government may not be a coalition at all. Instead, Merkel may have to head a CDU/CSU minority government. As the polls currently stand, Merkel’s CDU/CSU will be the largest party by a wide margin (see Chart 1). But the party will need a partner to command a parliamentary majority. The most natural coalition partner would be the FDP, a pro-business centre-right party that has been part of governing coalitions for much of Germany’s post-war history (the last time between 2009 and 2013). If numbers permit it, Merkel’s CDU/CSU would choose the FDP over the SPD as coalition partner. But polls currently indicate that this ‘Black-Yellow’ coalition would fall just short of 50 per cent of the seats (with a combined vote share of 47 per cent).
CER INSIGHT: Could Germany end up with a minority government? 4 September 2017
info@cer.EU | WWW.CER.EU
1