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To be influential in the EU, Spain must rebuild its political centre by Camino Mortera-Martínez, 31 July 2023 Spain’s inconclusive electoral results will diminish Madrid’s influence in Europe. As holder of the EU’s rotating presidency, Spain will be diligent but distracted. Conservatives and socialists should work to rebuild the centre. Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez surprised many when he decided to call a snap election after the poor performance of his Socialist Party (PSOE) in May’s regional elections. But he himself was probably surprised by the results of the general election, held on July 23rd. Sánchez expected to be defeated and hoped that a quick campaign would minimise his losses. Opposition leader Alberto Núñez-Feijóo was poised to be Spain’s next prime minister, with his Conservative Party (PP) winning comfortably. As the campaign went on, though, it became clear that Sánchez was not going to lose as badly as many initially expected; and Feijóo’s road to Spain’s prime-ministerial La Moncloa palace was not going to be as smooth as the polls predicted. All pre-election projections put PP consistently ahead, and assumed that Feijóo would be able to govern with the support of the far-right Vox. PSOE, which is in coalition with the far-left Podemos, was projected to lose as many as 20 of its 120 seats in Spain’s 350-seat parliament. But the Conservatives and Vox collectively failed to score enough votes to form a government. Feijóo hoped he could either gain enough seats to try to form a minority government, or to enter into a supply and confidence agreement, or even a coalition, with Vox. For that, he needed Vox to perform quite well. But contrary to lazy headlines, Vox was not on the rise in Spain. The polls predicted it would lose about 21 of its current 52 seats. It ended up losing 19 seats. To become prime minister, Feijóo also needed PSOE and its junior partner, the newly created Sumar, to do badly. His strategy backfired. Spain’s rushed electoral campaign was Feijóo’s to lose – and he lost it. While PP obtained the most seats (with 137, up from 89), PSOE’s surprisingly good results (121 seats, up from 120) make it almost impossible for Feijóo to become prime minister (see Chart 1). Feijóo only has a route to power if Sánchez fails to gather enough support for his own bid and agrees not to block Feijóo’s attempt at forming government – and the latter will not happen. Sánchez, by contrast, could find enough backing for a second term with the support of a collection of smaller parties. But negotiations with these mostly regional parties will not be easy. If they fail, Spaniards could be heading to the polls again this winter. CER INSIGHT: TO BE INFLUENTIAL IN THE EU, SPAIN MUST REBUILD ITS POLITICAL CENTRE 31 July 2023
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