Insight
Britain will struggle to make EU migrants ‘go home’ by Camino Mortera-Martinez, John Springford 5 August 2016
The British government is likely to let all EU migrants who arrive before the date of Brexit stay in the country. Other options may be politically attractive, but are impractical, of dubious legality, or against British interests. In the run-up to Britain’s EU referendum, the think-tank British Future organised an admirable campaign to allow the three million EU nationals in Britain who arrived before the date of the vote, June 23rd, to stay in the country regardless of the outcome. Leading Brexiters, like Tory MEP Daniel Hannan, UKIP MP Douglas Carswell, and Labour MP Gisela Stuart endorsed the idea. But since she came to power, Prime Minister Theresa May has refused to guarantee the right of existing EU migrants in Britain to stay after the country formally leaves the EU, saying that their rights will be subject to negotiation. May’s rationale is that if she were to guarantee that everyone could stay without the same commitment for the 1.2 million UK citizens who live in other EU member-states, she would put herself at a disadvantage in the negotiations over the terms of Brexit. As things stand, few are arguing that the UK should curb free movement before the date of Brexit, because it would be violating the terms of the EU treaties while still an EU member. And were it to do so, the EU would probably retaliate. Rather, the debate is about whether the UK should revoke the rights of some migrants once it leaves the Union. There are three groups of EU migrants whose rights might be revoked. First, people who arrived before June 23rd may be sent back, after EU withdrawal, if they do not have indefinite leave to remain. Under European law EU (and EEA) nationals who have been resident for five years or more are entitled to remain permanently, but the Social Market Foundation think-tank found this week that nearly 600,000 EU nationals living in Britain would not have been resident for that long if Britain leaves the EU in 2019. The second group is those who arrive after June 23rd. Britain is still an EU member, and so they are moving to Britain legally, but the UK might revoke their rights after Brexit. Third, the minister in charge of Brexit, David Davis, suggested the government might pre-announce a cut-off date before Britain formally leaves the EU. People who arrive after that date would have their right to stay revoked upon Britain’s withdrawal. CER INSIGHT: Britain will struggle to make EU migrants ‘go home’ 5 August 2016
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