Insight
Britain prepares for a softer Brexit by Charles Grant 27 June 2017
Britain’s general election has increased the chances of a ‘softer’ Brexit. But what would a softer Brexit look like? And could it include a customs union with the EU? Theresa May’s first government was committed to a hard Brexit, meaning one that prioritised sovereignty at the expense of close economic ties. She said that she would exclude the European Court of Justice (ECJ) from post-Brexit Britain; she implied that she wanted the number of EU immigrants to fall significantly; and she argued for Britain to leave both the customs union and the single market. But the election took away May’s majority, greatly weakening her, and the new Parliament seems unlikely to pass the legislation required for a hard Brexit. This article examines whether a softer form of Brexit is feasible and considers what it could look like. Since the election, May and David Davis, her secretary of state for leaving the EU, have said that they are sticking to existing plans for Brexit. Nevertheless just a handful of pro-EU Conservative MPs could defeat the government, if they joined forces with the opposition, most of which wants a softer Brexit. On June 21st the Queen outlined eight pieces of legislation that Brexit would require over the next two years, covering trade, customs arrangements, international sanctions, nuclear safety, agriculture, fisheries and immigration, as well as the ‘repeal bill’ which will transform existing EU rules into British law. It seems implausible to suppose that all that can be passed unless the government softens its stance. Negotiations between Davis and his opposite number representing the EU, Michel Barnier, began on June 19th. The first few months will focus on the legal separation set out in Article 50 – notably the rights of EU citizens in Britain and vice versa, the UK’s financial obligations and the Irish border – rather than the future relationship. This gives the government several months to rethink its approach to the future economic relationship. Whatever May and Davis are saying in public, Brexit policy is in fact in flux. The coalition of forces pushing for a softer Brexit is considerable. Business lobbies note that they have more access to senior figures in the government than they did before the election, and they are CER INSIGHT: Britain prepares for a softer Brexit 27 June2017
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