Insight
What happens if Parliament rejects May’s Brexit deal? by Charles Grant 16 November 2018
Theresa May has clinched her deal with the EU and persuaded a majority of the cabinet to support it. Despite the resignations of senior ministers like Dominic Raab and Esther McVey, she is more likely than not to survive any immediate leadership challenge; it suits a lot of Tory MPs, both Leavers and Remainers, to keep her in place until she has delivered Brexit. But after EU leaders sign off the deal at a special summit on November 25th, May has promised the House of Commons a ‘meaningful vote’. That is likely to be held in early December and it is hard to see how she can win it. May’s deal consists of a withdrawal agreement in the form of a treaty and a political declaration sketching out the shape of the future relationship. She says the choice is between her deal, exiting without a deal – or, as a threat to potential Brexiteer rebels – staying in the EU. The government hopes that momentum will build for backing her draft plan, as an alternative to chaos. Business leaders, many of whom are very fearful of no deal, will speak out in favour of May’s proposal. EU leaders will add their voices, saying that no other deal is possible. May’s problem is that a clear majority of MPs appears to oppose her deal. She has a working majority of 13, including ten MPs from the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), who normally vote with the government. Many eurosceptic Tories in the European Research Group (ERG), led by Jacob Rees-Mogg and Steve Baker, are certain to vote against the government. They object in particular to the prospect of the UK being tied to the EU in a customs union for an indefinite period, and thus unable to negotiate free trade agreements with other countries that cover goods. They bridle at the UK having to be a ‘rule-taker’ not only on trade policy but also in so called ‘level playing field’ areas like labour and environmental standards, state aid, competition policy and tax. Nor do they like the commitment to voluntarily follow EU standards on goods. More than 20 Conservatives from the ERG and other eurosceptic caucuses seem likely to oppose the government. On the opposite wing of the Conservative Party, five to ten pro-Europe parliamentarians will follow the lead of Dominic Grieve and Jo Johnson and vote against the deal, hoping that its defeat will lead to another referendum. CER INSIGHT: What happens if Parliament rejects May’s Brexit deal? 16 November 2018
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