Insight
The Brussels view of Brexit by Charles Grant 14 May 2019
The EU is no longer as united as it was on how to handle the British. But just about everyone working on Brexit in the EU’s institutions and governments is fed up with them, and they do not believe that Britain’s politicians are capable of getting their act together and resolving the problem. Many people in Brussels expect a further extension of Article 50, well into 2020. Ever since the British referendum of June 2016, the EU has maintained an impressive degree of unity. The 27 member-states and the EU institutions understood that they would be in a stronger position vis-à-vis the UK if they kept together. And they did so, under the leadership of the European Commission, France and Germany. But last month’s European Council revealed cracks in the EU which are unlikely to disappear quickly and could widen. There are two sets of divisions – on tactics and on substance – but they overlap. On tactics, there was an argument at the summit over the best way to get the British Parliament to ratify the withdrawal agreement. Michel Barnier, leading Task Force 50 in the Commission, and Emmanuel Macron, the French president, argued that the British would not work out what they wanted unless faced with the precipice of a no deal exit. Macron and Barnier therefore pushed for a short extension of only a few weeks or months. The opposing camp – including European Council President Donald Tusk, Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker and most member-states – considered that a long extension would make hard-line eurosceptic MPs fear losing Brexit altogether, and therefore vote for Theresa May’s deal in Parliament. This camp had other arguments against a short extension, too: an acrimonious or hard Brexit would threaten western coherence at a time when autocratic leaders – such as Putin, Trump and Erdoğan – were working hard to undermine the multilateral order in general and the EU in particular (Chancellor Angela Merkel made this argument). And they did not want the EU to be blamed for any disorder that followed the UK crashing out; the world had to see that the UK was responsible for its own fate. This camp wanted an extension of nine or 12 months. In the end the compromise between Macron and the other leaders was for an extension of six months, until October 31st, unless May was able to pass her deal sooner. CER INSIGHT: The Brussels view of Brexit 14 May 2019
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