Insight
The Ukraine model for Brexit: Is dissociation just like association? by Beth Oppenheim 27 February 2018
Some argue that a Ukraine-style association agreement offers the UK a viable model for its future relationship with the EU, combining both ‘sovereignty’ and close economic ties. But in fact this model would not work for either the EU or most Brexiteers. The EU has presented the UK with a stark choice between ‘Norway’ and ‘Canada’. That is, between single market membership and a free trade agreement – between close economic ties and ‘sovereignty’. Some experts have pointed to the EU’s association agreements as a way of escaping this binary choice. A Ukraine-style association agreement looks at first glance like a possible route for the UK to circumvent unwanted obligations, whilst preserving some of the economic benefits of membership. The provisions on goods and services are theoretically far superior to those offered by the Canada option, but there is no free movement and the involvement of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) is limited, unlike in the Norway option. But is this too good to be true? Closer analysis shows that despite their generous appearance, the association agreements are firmly slanted in the favour of the EU, and that key obligations are omitted not out of generosity, but for pragmatic reasons that would not apply in the case of the UK. The EU has signed over 20 ‘association agreements’ to create a framework for co-operation with non-member-states. These take a variety of forms, and aim to promote political association and economic integration. They liberalise trade, but also encompass other issues like security and defence, or energy. Most recently, the EU has concluded association agreements that incorporate ‘Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements’ (DCFTAs) with three of the six ‘Eastern partners’ of the EU – Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. Ukraine’s was the first and is the most advanced, offering an “unprecedented level of integration”, according to the European Commission. These countries are not members of the single market or customs union, but are still granted deep and comprehensive market access and customs co-operation – though only in return for aligning their domestic laws to EU law. CER INSIGHT: The Ukraine model for Brexit: Is dissociation just like association? 27 February 2018
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