Insight
Not so special: Why the US won’t help Britain in the Brexit talks by Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska and Rem Korteweg 25 October 2016
It is an article of faith among some Brexit supporters that America will ride to Britain’s rescue if relations with the EU get difficult. Things look different in Washington. President Barack Obama warned before the referendum in June that if Britain decided to leave the EU it would be at the “back of the queue” for a trade deal with the US – a warning since repeated by US officials. But perhaps America’s next president will care more about the ‘special relationship’ and help Britain get a good deal with the EU? Key US policy-makers are upset to see Britain leave the EU. The UK has often been America’s proxy in Brussels; sharing an agenda of economic liberalism and foreign policy activism (including, though rather less in recent years, a willingness to use military force). But Washington’s engagement with the EU is not limited to London. As the UK’s relationship with the EU has cooled, the Obama administration has strengthened its ties with other member-states, particularly Germany and France. Berlin has been pivotal to the EU’s response to the eurozone and refugee crises. France has become a preferred partner for the US in counter-terrorism operations in Africa. American officials also regularly meet their counterparts from the Commission and the Council in meetings on, among other things, justice and home affairs or energy. After the European Parliament voted down the US-EU agreement on terrorist financing tracking in 2010, American officials realised that they also needed to nurture close relations with MEPs. The Americans worry, however, that Brexit will distract Europe from the serious challenges it faces. They fear that the unprecedented negotiations connected to Britain’s divorce from the EU will make the EU and the UK less resolute in their responses to terrorist threats or an increasingly assertive Russia. Despite its ambivalent attitude to justice and home affairs co-operation, Britain has been an essential partner in EU counter-terrorism efforts. The UK has also championed EU sanctions against Russia, following Moscow’s annexation of Crimea. After Brexit, member-states like Italy, Hungary and Slovakia, which favour rapprochement with Moscow, will have relatively more clout. So the US will hope for continued EU-UK co-operation on foreign policy and justice and home affairs. It may be keen to offer advice on how to achieve this. The US Secretary of State, John Kerry, and Federica Mogherini, the EU’s High Representative, have a good working relationship. Mogherini recently invited CER INSIGHT: Not so special: Why the US won’t help Britain in the Brexit talks 25 October 2016
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