Insight
Gas heats up the eastern Mediterranean by Luigi Scazzieri 23 April 2020
Disagreements over who gets to exploit gas in the eastern Mediterranean have raised tensions in the region, led to EU sanctions on Turkey, and made resolving the Libyan conflict more difficult. Much is now riding on Ankara’s next moves. Over the past decade substantial natural gas reserves have been discovered in the eastern Mediterranean. In theory, this gas could benefit the countries in the region by satisfying their energy needs and generating export revenues, and help the EU to diversify its energy supplies. Gas could also underpin the economy of a united Cyprus one day, should the dispute that has divided the island since 1974 be resolved. Some of the region’s gas reserves are already being exploited: Egypt and Israel are using their deposits for internal consumption, and Israel is also exporting gas to neighbouring countries. However, Cyprus has struggled to commercialise its reserves, and exporting gas to Europe has proved difficult. Despite hopes that the discovery of gas might help bring Greek and Turkish Cypriots together, it has instead increased tensions between Turkey and the EU. Turkey, which imports three quarters of its energy, and relies on Russia for around half of its gas imports, has not yet found any gas of its own in the eastern Mediterranean. Yet even without gas of its own, Turkey could have been involved in efforts to exploit eastern Mediterranean gas by offering up its pipeline infrastructure as a route to market. This would be the cheapest way to deliver the gas to Europe and would bring significant benefits to the Turkish and Cypriot economies. But in practice, Ankara’s bad relations with its neighbours have blocked this option. Other countries in the region have ploughed on with projects that do not involve Turkey, further increasing Ankara’s fear of being shut out of a regional gas bonanza. In January 2019, Cyprus, Greece and Israel, together with Jordan, the Palestinian Authority and Italy, set up the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum, an organisation that aims to co-ordinate policies and establish a regional gas market. Turkey’s absence was notable.
CER INSIGHT: Gas heats up the eastern Mediterranean 23 April 2020
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