What future for a ‘geopolitical’ Europe? by Luigi Scazzieri
Ursula von der Leyen wants her Commission to be ‘geopolitical’. COVID-19 is likely to make this harder, while also underlining its importance. The fallout from COVID-19 will further destabilise Europe’s neighbourhood, at the same time as China, Russia and Turkey are becoming more assertive. The way the EU responds to these challenges will be a test case for whether it can act more geopolitically. Many of the EU’s neighbours will struggle to cope with the economic and social impact of the pandemic, even if COVID-19 has not so far hit most of them hard. Few of these countries are in a position to enact the measures necessary to restart their economies. Many are dependent on income from tourism, which is unlikely to recover fully soon. Others, such as Algeria and the Gulf states, rely on energy revenues, and will suffer from the fall in global prices. Exports will fall, investment will dry up, foreign-currency denominated debt will balloon and remittances from citizens overseas will shrink. Economic difficulties will translate into reduced government revenue and increased unemployment. This will fuel social strife and give renewed impetus to street protests, like those last year in many countries in the Middle East and North Africa. At the same time, there is no sign that the pandemic is leading to a lull in ongoing conflicts in Libya or Syria. Both people
fleeing from conflict and those seeking better economic opportunities are likely to migrate to Europe in large numbers, potentially causing a repeat of the 2015-2016 migration crisis. This could strengthen anti-immigration eurosceptic parties and deepen divisions between memberstates, destabilising the Union. The EU’s biggest neighbours, Russia and Turkey, have caused the Union many headaches in recent years. Russia has resisted resolving the Ukraine conflict, and has increased pressure on the EU’s eastern member-states. For the first time since the break-up of the Soviet Union, Moscow has established itself as a Mediterranean power, thanks to its involvement in Syria and Libya. Meanwhile, Turkey-EU tensions have risen due to Turkey’s drilling for gas near Cyprus, and Ankara’s intervention in the Libyan conflict. There is little sign that COVID-19 will push Turkey and Russia to lower their ambitions. Moscow is seeking to consolidate its influence in Libya. Turkey has also established itself in Libya, and shown no indication of wanting to calm tensions in the eastern Mediterranean. Russia and Turkey could use their footholds in Libya to manipulate migration flows to the EU. Moreover, both Moscow and Ankara could become even more assertive if their economic difficulties mount.