Insight
A Brexit deal may yet emerge from the current confusion by Charles Grant 22 September 2020
Despite the brouhaha over the Internal Market Bill, both the British government and the EU still want to clinch a deal, and that remains a plausible outcome. Many observers of the Brexit saga assumed that Boris Johnson’s Internal Market Bill was intended to wreck the talks on the future relationship. The bill includes clauses that would enable his government to override parts of the Withdrawal Agreement that it recently negotiated with the EU. It is true that the trade negotiations have been bogged down and that the bill makes it somewhat harder for the UK and the EU to reach an accord before the transition period expires at year-end. But although the outcome of the current talks is far from certain, Britain could still leave with a free trade agreement (FTA). The case for pessimism The Internal Market Bill has shocked the EU. It is not unprecedented for a country to breach international law. But it may be unprecedented for a government to negotiate a treaty, proclaim the result as a triumph during a general election campaign, but then – less than a year after signing the document – unveil legislation designed to scrap parts of it. Many EU leaders, even in countries traditionally close to the UK, are fed up with Johnson’s antics. They ask how they can continue to negotiate with a government whose signature cannot be trusted. Goodwill among the EU-27 towards the British government is at an all-time low. Faced with a chorus of opposition from Conservative backbenchers and peers, as well as the legal profession, Johnson has made a partial retreat, conceding that Parliament would have to approve the use of the bill’s contentious powers. He also says the bill should be seen as an insurance policy that would only be used if the FTA talks failed. But these concessions do not remove the problem, as far as the EU is concerned: the bill still allows the UK to breach the Withdrawal Agreement. The bill does not seek to eliminate the customs border in the Irish Sea that Johnson agreed to last October – merely to weaken aspects of it. Nevertheless the bill has led to fears in Dublin and elsewhere that Johnson may ultimately seek to scrap that entire border. After all, last winter he several times proclaimed that there would be no controls on goods crossing the Irish Sea. The reason why this matters CER INSIGHT: A Brexit deal may yet emerge from the current confusion 22 SEPTEMBER 2020
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