A new migration crisis may be brewing by Camino Mortera-Martinez and Luigi Scazzieri
Member-states have made some progress towards a common asylum system. But large divisions endure and the EU’s efforts to increase co-operation with third countries will continue to face difficulties. For EU policy-makers, a new migration crisis is never far from sight. After dropping sharply in 2020 – when most people could not leave home, let alone cross borders – the number of migrants arriving irregularly in Europe is rising. According to Frontex, the European Union’s border agency, arrivals during the first five months of 2021 increased by 47 per cent compared to the same period in 2020. In May, around 12,000 people crossed illegally from Morocco to the Spanish enclave of Ceuta in less than two days. The crossings followed Spain’s decision to provide medical treatment to Brahim Ghali, a leader of the Sahrawi people who want independence from Morocco. In response, Morocco instructed its border forces to look the other way. Then in July, Frontex had to intervene on the border between Lithuania and Belarus, after a sharp rise in border crossings. The migrants mostly came from sub-Saharan Africa and were reportedly flown in and pushed across the border by the Belarusian government, in retaliation for EU sanctions. The numbers are not as headline-grabbing as those of 2015-16, when 1.4 million people arrived irregularly in Europe. However, they point to how willing disgruntled neighbouring countries are to exploit desperate people in order to put pressure on the EU – especially in
the case of Belarus flying in migrants from other continents. This is not a new phenomenon, but it should bring migration back to the top of the EU’s agenda. The EU and its member-states managed to weather the 2015-16 migration crisis by striking controversial deals with countries like Turkey and Libya, to stop migrants from reaching Europe. Since then, the Commission and the member-states have given more powers to Frontex and national law enforcement bodies to police the external borders of the passport-free Schengen area. The Commission has also tried to create a common asylum system, including solidarity measures that would distribute asylum-seekers between member-states. In September 2020, the Commission relaunched negotiations among the member-states with a proposal for a ‘new migration pact’. On the surface, the politics of migration in Europe remain toxic. Delays and failures in registering and processing asylum applications at Schengen’s external borders have caused bottlenecks and pitched frontline and destination countries against each other. The former claim that they need more help in dealing with asylum-seekers; the latter say border countries are simply unwilling to do their