Three questions on the German election by Christian Odendahl
As the floods in Germany change the dynamics of the race, the CDU could win the most votes yet end up in opposition. In that case, the chancellor could be the SPD’s Olaf Scholz. The German federal election on September 26th is fast approaching. Angela Merkel is stepping down as chancellor after 16 years, and will leave Armin Laschet, current prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia, in charge of the Christian Democrats (CDU) and well-placed to succeed her as chancellor. But Germany’s political landscape is evolving: the largest parties – the CDU and the Social Democrats (SPD) – are a lot smaller than they were and the Greens have become a serious contender for the chancellery. The current strength of the Free Democrats (FDP), a conservative-liberal party, also adds coalition options to the menu. Who will come in first? For a while in the spring it seemed as though the Greens could overtake the CDU, but now the polls have reversed, with the CDU ahead by 10 points. Excitement around the Greens’ candidate for chancellor, Annalena Baerbock, has subsided. The Greens’ campaign failed to anticipate the high level of scrutiny Bearbock would be subjected to. Her credibility has been undermined by writing an unnecessary book with the help of a lot of copy and paste, embellishing her CV and being late in declaring additional income to the Bundestag. Her approval rating is still around 30 per cent, but her disapproval rating has increased strongly.
But just as the press was full of articles asking whether the Greens should have instead nominated the more popular Robert Habeck as their candidate, torrential rains caused severe floods in Germany and Laschet’s state in particular, killing more than 160 people. This was an opportunity for Laschet to display his leadership credentials. But he made every conceivable mistake. He ignored detailed and alarming flood warnings and travelled to southern Germany to campaign, leaving the affected counties to deal with the fallout. He failed to realise that the severity of the situation required a state task force – and changed his views on whether the floods should affect German climate policy three times in 24 hours. He was then caught laughing in the background of a sombre TV interview with the German president in one of the worst-affected towns in his own state. A recent poll suggests that Laschet’s approval ratings have taken a severe hit, from already low levels. His plan to become chancellor by doing and saying very little – which worked well until the flood – is obsolete. Which leaves an unlikely winner of recent weeks: the SPD’s Olaf Scholz, who is by far the most experienced chancellor candidate. His response to the flooding was measured, and focused on putting together a financial rescue