Transatlantic relations for the Biden era and beyond by Ian Bond
Most European leaders responded to Joe Biden’s election victory on November 3rd with undisguised enthusiasm. They expect him to repair some of the damage that the transatlantic partnership suffered in Hurricane Donald, but pre-Trump America no longer exists, and European policy must reflect that. Following Biden’s win, the EU published ‘A new EU-US agenda for global change’ in December, setting out a number of topics for possible collaboration: global health, climate change, trade and technology, and strengthening democracy. The Biden administration’s first moves in these areas – rejoining the World Health Organisation and the Paris Agreement, for example – have been encouraging. But the EU must also learn the lessons of the last four years, in case relations run into trouble again after Biden. The first lesson is that the US remains a deeply divided society. More people voted for Trump in 2020 than for any other presidential candidate in history, with one exception – Joe Biden. Trump may have left the political stage, but his supporters are likely to shape the future direction of the Republican Party for the next few years at least. They will not believe that there are benefits for them in the kind of policy co-ordination that the EU is calling for – on climate change, what the EU calls “open and fair trade” or the United Nation's sustainable development goals. Biden will prioritise narrowing divisions at home over winning favour in European capitals – as
shown by his January 25th announcement of protectionist ‘Buy American’ measures, which among other things increase domestic content requirements for government procurement. European representatives in the US should work harder on influencing opinions in the South and the Midwest, where Trump’s fans are most numerous. The EU delegation in Washington has various outreach programmes, mostly through universities; it should target these regions more. The larger European states should use their networks of consulates in support of the general European interest, not just national objectives. Though outside the EU, the UK can still use its posts in the US to encourage continued transatlantic co-operation and popular support for NATO. The second lesson is that Congress still matters. The November elections reduced the Democrats’ majority in the House of Representatives from 38 to 11. Many House Republicans remain loyal to Trump: two-thirds of them voted to reject Pennsylvania’s election results, in an effort to deny Biden his victory. Biden is likely to struggle