Turkey rising? by Luigi Scazzieri
Turkey’s foreign policy has become increasingly militarised and assertive, driven by a mix of ambition, security concerns and domestic politics. However, despite its recent successes, Ankara is at risk of overreaching. Turkish foreign policy has become increasingly assertive and militarised over the past few years as Ankara has drifted further from the West. Turkey has behaved aggressively towards Greece and Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean, sending exploration vessels accompanied by warships to prospect for hydrocarbons, and asserting its claims both to contested waters and a share of the region’s gas resources. Earlier this year, Ankara encouraged thousands of migrants to try to cross into Greece, a move that the EU saw as an orchestrated assault on the Greek border. At the same time, Turkey’s relationship with the US has severely deteriorated as a result of Washington’s support for the Syrian Kurds and Ankara’s purchase of a Russian S-400 air defence system. Turkey has become involved in many conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa. Turkish forces have carried out several incursions into Syria since 2016, establishing a buffer zone in the country’s north to prevent the Syrian Kurds from consolidating their presence on Turkey’s border, and to prevent Russia and the Assad regime from defeating the remaining rebels and creating a wave of refugees that would pour into Turkey. At the same time, Turkish forces have fought against the Kurdish PKK terrorist
group in northern Iraq. In September, Turkey irritated its NATO allies by providing Azerbaijan with political backing, drones and – reportedly – fighters from Syria during its recent offensive to recapture the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region. The war cemented Turkey’s status as a key player in the Caucasus. Turkey has also sought to expand its influence in the Middle East and Africa. Early in 2020 Ankara intervened in Libya’s conflict, providing military assistance to the beleaguered UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli. Ankara’s support allowed the GNA to repel military commander Khalifa Haftar’s attempt to seize power, stabilising the situation and creating the conditions for the parties to agree a ceasefire. At the same time, Turkey has also tried to deepen political and economic links with countries like Algeria, Niger and Tunisia, as well as establishing a military base in Somalia. Turkish foreign policy is being driven by a combination of three factors. The first is President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ambition to revive Turkey’s status as a major regional power. This ambition is fuelled by nationalism, often tinted with religion, and underpinned by a belief that