When negotiations begin: the next phase in EU-Turkey relations By Heather Grabbe ★ Turkey has shown an impressive ability to transform itself, and the forthcoming negotiations with the EU will be an important catalyst for further change. However, the accession preparations will prove much harder than Turkey’s political and business establishment is expecting. ★ Membership of the EU requires much more profound change than joining NATO or other international organisations. The EU will intrude into the most sensitive areas of Turkish life, such as rights for the Kurdish minority and relations with neighbouring countries. ★ The experience of the latest countries to join the EU offers important lessons for Turkey, such as the value of enlisting the Commission negotiators as allies.
Turkey has succeeded in completing the first group of Herculean tasks set by the EU. Ten years ago, it was hard to imagine that Turkey would abolish the death penalty, permit children to learn in Kurdish and place a civilian in charge of national security. Less than a decade ago, the military forced an Islamist party out of government. Now the successor to that party has made Turkey a more liberal democracy. The Turkish political system has proved itself capable of radical and very positive change. But these reforms are just the beginning of what Turkey will have to do before it can join the EU. At their December 2004 summit, the 25 current member-states are likely to set a date for Turkey to start accession talks. The European Commission confirmed in October that the Turkish government has enacted most of the reforms demanded by the EU as a pre-condition for starting negotiations. In particular, the EU wanted to see improvements in the protection of minorities and human rights. However, in order to qualify for EU membership, Turkey will now have to comply with the other exacting criteria for accession, known as the ‘Copenhagen conditions’.
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In 2005, the Commission will set out in detail those other conditions for entry – particularly those that concern economic reform and the implementation of the EU’s rule-book, known as the ‘acquis communautaire’. EU accession requires an enormous range of changes, from environmental policy to financial services. Many of these reforms will be difficult for Turkey to swallow because they will entail significant costs, as well as deep restructuring of the public administration over a long period. Accession negotiations could take a decade to complete. During that period, Turks will learn much more about the EU and how it works. They may well be disappointed to discover that most of the acquis is about market regulation and common EU policies; implementation of the acquis does not automatically lead to West European levels of prosperity. This essay is about the challenges that lie ahead for the EU and Turkey once accession negotiations begin. It considers which aspects of the accession process and the EU’s rule-book will be unpalatable to various Turkish interest groups. The essay concludes with
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