CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN REFORM
briefing note
WHAT HAPPENS IF FRANCE VOTES NO? In just over two weeks France will hold a referendum on the EU constitutional treaty. The outcome of the May 29th referendum remains on a knife-edge with the latest polls suggesting the country is split down the middle. Whatever the final result, President Chirac is likely to reshuffle the French government, although he will probably not resign if the referendum is lost. For the EU, the consequences of a No are likely to prove long-lasting, almost certainly killing off the constitutional treaty and plunging the EU into a severe political crisis.
1. WHY THE FRENCH COULD VOTE NO The French are traditionally pro-European. As a large founding member France has played a key role in shaping the EU. Unlike Britain, for example, France participates in all EU policies, from the euro to the ‘Schengen’ area of passport-free travel. Moreover, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, the former French president, was the chairman of the Convention that prepared the draft text of the constitutional treaty. France successfully proposed a number of innovations in the treaty, such as the creation of a president of the European Council (which brings together EU heads of government). The treaty also safeguards some of France’s key concerns, such as the exception culturelle which protects the French language and the film industry. The vast majority of the French media and the mainstream political parties all support the treaty. So why could the French reject the treaty? French opposition to the treaty is fuelled by two trends: a rising disenchantment with the EU, and a sense of crisis at home. First, enlargement has made it increasingly difficult for France to exercise its traditional leadership within the EU. Many French voters fear that the country’s influence and vision of Europe is becoming diluted in a larger, looser and more liberal EU. In particular, many voters fear that immigrants from the new memberstates and, in the future Turkey, could steal their jobs. They are also anxious that French companies could relocate to low-cost Central and Eastern European countries. The passionate debate about the draft services directive that enflamed France in February revived all these fears. French voters are concerned that the liberalisation of services across the EU will undermine their cherished social rights Second, French fears about the direction of the EU are compounded by a deep-rooted pessimism about the country’s economic and political future. Unemployment has remained stubbornly high for nearly two decades. One in ten French workers is out of a job, exactly the same rate as in 1983, while more than one in five of the under-25s are unemployed. Governments from both sides of the political spectrum have failed to get to grips with the labour market’s problems, leading to growing disillusionment with mainstream politics. The current centre-right government has carried out some painful social security and pension reforms, but without securing widespread public support. As a result, many French voters see the constitutional treaty referendum as a welcome opportunity to give President Chirac a bloody nose.
The impact of a No on French politics A French No vote is unlikely to force President Chirac to resign, although his credibility would be greatly damaged. But it would almost certainly end any lingering hopes the President might have of running for a third term in office in 2007, thereby clearing the way for Nicolas Sarkozy to become the centre-right
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