Wg^Z[^c\ Wg^Z[^c\ cdiZ \ cdiZ LIBERALISM RETREATS IN CHINA By Charles Grant Most western governments have welcomed China’s peaceful rise and its contribution to global economic growth. In many ways China has become the “responsible global stakeholder” that World Bank President Robert Zoellick once asked for. This year China played a constructive role at the London G20 summit, provided $50 billion for the IMF and dispatched ships to catch pirates off the Somali coast. Optimists view such behaviour as part of a long-term trend for China to become integrated into the global economy and multilateral governance. The optimists can point to 30 years of economic reform, the steady growth of personal freedom within China and even modest moves towards democracy, with, for example, village elections. But events over the past year or two must give the optimists pause for thought. Within the Chinese system there is a constant battle between authoritarians and those who are relatively liberal over politics, economics and foreign policy. Neither side has been triumphant, but in the past few years the hard-liners have been winning more of the arguments. Both specific events and long-term trends account for this. The recent riots in Xinjiang – most of whose victims were Han Chinese – will strengthen the hand of those who believe in a firm grip. Last year’s protests in Tibet, the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square bloodshed and the fear that the economic crisis could lead to social instability had already made the party nervous of relaxing its authority. Notwithstanding recent events, the new strength of the authoritarians has longer-term causes. Several decades of economic success have led China’s leaders to believe in the wisdom of their own approach to politics and economics. And although they still repeat the mantra that China is a poor, developing country, they know that it is becoming a global power, and they are confident enough to 1 This briefing note is based mainly flex their muscles from time to time. Some leaders now talk about China’s on conversations in China in June ‘inevitable rise’. Meanwhile the financial crisis has – as far as the Chinese are 2009. I would like to thank Katinka concerned – exposed serious flaws in the western economic system. Worrying Barysch, Jonathan Fenby, Bobo Lo, that excessive American borrowing will damage the value of their dollar Clara O’Donnell, Simon Tilford, Zha Wen and Philip Whyte for com- holdings, the Chinese are looking seriously at alternatives to the dollar as a reserve currency. For all these reasons Chinese leaders are becoming less willing menting on earlier drafts. to bow to western pressure to change their internal or external policies.1
A tighter grip on politics The political system is becoming more authoritarian. The harassment of dissidents is getting worse. Liu Xiaobo, who led the Charter 08 pro-democracy petition at the end of last year, has been detained since December 2008. Chinese nationals have been banned from working as journalists for western news organisations. Families of earthquake victims who complain about the schools that collapsed are harassed. But at the same time blogger-driven campaigns – so long as they avoid politically sensitive subjects – sometimes shift government policy. The outcry over a young woman who killed a party official who had tried to rape her led to a court freeing the woman. There have been many cases of bloggers exposing corruption by officials or abuses in police stations which have led to the guilty being punished. Notwithstanding the growing importance of the internet as a medium for reflecting public opinion, the predominant trend is for firmer political control. Wu Bangguo, the influential chairman of the National
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