Saudi Arabia Residential Market Performance Q3 2025 by cavendish_maxwell

Saudi Arabia Residential Market Performance Q3 2025

Executive Summary Saudi Arabia's economy continued to deliver robust performance in 2025, with real GDP expanding by 4.3% in the first nine months of the year, driven primarily by the non-oil sector, which grew by 5.1% year on year. Reflecting this strong momentum, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its 2025 growth forecast for the Kingdom upward to 4%, with a similar expansion projected for 2026. The Kingdom's residential real estate market, however, exhibited varied performance across its major cities during Q3 2025, reflecting differing supply and demand dynamics. In Riyadh, transaction volumes rebounded by 18.7% quarter on quarter to reach approximately 13,000 sales, though they remained 44.3% lower compared to the same period last year due to affordability pressures following the rapid price appreciation seen in 2024. Rental rates also climbed sharply, rising 11.8% for apartments and 10.7% for villas year on year, prompting the Government to introduce a five-year rental freeze in late September 2025 to address affordability concerns.

6,000 expected by year end. Jeddah added roughly 3,000 units, with 2,000 more anticipated by year end, while Dammam's supply grew modestly by 500 units with 1,300 units expected in Q4 2025. Looking ahead, Saudi Arabia's residential market is expected to expand further in 2026, supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals, continued Government investment, and the rollout of Vision 2030 initiatives. A key catalyst for growth will be the introduction of foreign/ non-Saudi ownership rules, which are expected to unlock signiﬁcant demand from foreign residents and regional investors, particularly in Riyadh and other major cities.

In Jeddah, the residential market showed signs of recovery, with transaction volumes rising 10.3% quarter on quarter to approximately 7,500 sales, though they remained 19.3% lower compared to Q3 2024. Price growth remained moderate, with apartment and villa prices averaging SAR 4,360 per sqm and SAR 5,140 per sqm respectively, reflecting annual increases of 1.6% and 3.1%. Dammam emerged as one of the Kingdom's most dynamic residential markets in Q3 2025, recording approximately 3,000 transactions, its highest level in recent years. Transaction volumes surged 37% quarter on quarter and 58.5% year on year, driven by the city's relative affordability and robust demand from both end users and investors. On the supply side, Riyadh delivered approximately 10,000 residential units in the first nine months of 2025, with a further

Market Snapshot for Q3 2025 Riyadh

Jeddah

Dammam

Apartment Sales Price

Y-on-Y

+7.5%

Villa Sales Price

+10.1% Y-on-Y

Saudi Arabia Residential Market Performance Q3 2025

+1.6%

Villa Sales Price

+3.1% Y-on-Y

+5.8%

Villa Sales Price

+3.2% Y-on-Y

Residential Supply in Riyadh, Jeddah, and Dammam 2025

8,800

Under Construction

13,100 Completed

Macroeconomic Overview and Outlook Saudi Arabia's economy continued to demonstrate strong

Looking ahead, the macroeconomic outlook for Saudi Arabia

performance, with real GDP expanding by 4.3% in the ﬁrst nine

remains positive, supported by both oil and non-oil activity.

months of 2025, supported largely by the non-oil sector, which

Additionally, the continued rollout of Vision 2030 initiatives, major

grew by 5.1% year on year. Reﬂecting this momentum, the IMF

international events, and extensive investment in infrastructure,

once again revised its outlook for the Kingdom, raising its 2025

logistics, and public services will be key contributors to medium

growth forecast from 3.6% to 4%, with a similar 4% expansion

term economic expansion.

projected for 2026. The Kingdom's broader economic activity is also reflected in its expanding transport and tourism sectors. In the first three quarters of 2025, 103.1 million passengers travelled through Saudi airports, while total flight movements reached 713,000, marking annual increases of 9% and 5%, respectively. Saudi Arabia currently connects to over 170 international destinations, highlighting the rapid development of its aviation and tourism infrastructure. Labour market conditions have continued to strengthen as well, with unemployment rates declining further, driven by strong private sector hiring and the ongoing labour market reforms aimed at increasing participation and mobility.

Real GDP

Oil Activities

SAR 3.63 Trillion +4.3% (Y-on-Y)

SAR 0.95 Trillion +3.9% (Y-on-Y)

Non-Oil Activities

Government Activities

SAR 2.02 Trillion +5.1% (Y-on-Y)

SAR 0.47 Trillion +1.7% (Y-on-Y)

Saudi Arabia Residential Market Performance Q3 2025

Riyadh Sales Transactions: By Volume and Value Riyadh recorded approximately 13,000 residential sales transactions in Q3 2025, marking an 18.7% increase from Q2 2025, signalling a short-term rebound in market activity. However, compared to the same period last year, transaction volumes declined by 44.3%. The year-over-year decline was primarily driven by aﬀordability pressures following the rapid price appreciation seen during 2024’s exceptional growth phase, coupled with higher ﬁnancing costs. Despite these challenges, the quarter-on-quarter improvement indicates that demand continues to persist; buyers, however, are becoming increasingly selective and price-sensitive as the market continues to adjust to elevated pricing levels.

Riyadh Transactions - By Volume 30k

26.6k 24.6k

23.4k

25k 20k

18k 14.4k

15k

11k

13k

10k 5k 0k

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

Ministry of Justice Sales Transactions

Q4 2024 Real Estate Registry Sales Transactions

Q1 2025

Q2 2025

Q3 2025

Total Residential Sales Transactions

Source: MOJ, RER, Paseetah, Cavendish Maxwell

Residential sales transaction values in Riyadh reached SAR 17.6 billion in Q3 2025, up 3.5% from the previous quarter. However, compared to the same period last year, values fell by 45.4%, consistent with the year-on-year decline in sales activity.

Riyadh Transactions - By Value (SAR) 60B 48.7B

50B 37.2B

40B 30B

32.3B

21.5B 18.9B

20B

17B

17.6B

Q2 2025

Q3 2025

10B 0B

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

Ministry of Justice Sales Transactions Source: MOJ, RER, Paseetah, Cavendish Maxwell

Saudi Arabia Residential Market Performance Q3 2025

Q4 2024 Real Estate Registry Sales Transactions

Q1 2025

Total Residential Sales Transactions

Jeddah Sales Transactions: By Volume and Value Jeddah's residential market demonstrated an uptick in Q3 2025, with transaction volumes increasing 10.3% to reach approximately 7,500 sales transactions. This recovery coincided with stabilising price conditions, which appeared to support renewed buyer activity as aﬀordability pressures eased slightly. However, when compared to the same period last year, transaction volumes declined 19.3%, albeit at a more moderate pace than Riyadh's 44.3% contraction. If sales prices continue to stabilise further, this could provide support for transaction activity in the coming quarters.

Jeddah Transactions - By Volume 9.3k

10k

8.9k

8.4k

6.8k 6.3k

7.5k

5.9k

2k 0k

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

Ministry of Justice Sales Transactions

Q4 2024

Real Estate Registry Sales Transactions

Q1 2025

Q2 2025

Q3 2025

Total Residential Sales Transactions

Source: MOJ, RER, Paseetah, Cavendish Maxwell

In terms of sales value, Jeddah recorded approximately SAR 8.7 billion in residential transactions during Q3 2025, reﬂecting a 9% increase from Q2 2025 and a modest 1.7% rise compared to the same period in 2024.

Jeddah Transactions - By Value (SAR) 10.4B 9.5B

10B

8.7B

8.5B 8B

6.7B

2B 0B

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

Ministry of Justice Sales Transactions Source: MOJ, RER, Paseetah, Cavendish Maxwell

Saudi Arabia Residential Market Performance Q3 2025

Q4 2024 Real Estate Registry Sales Transactions

Q1 2025

Q2 2025

Total Residential Sales Transactions

Q3 2025

Dammam Sales Transactions: By Volume and Value Moving to Dammam in the Eastern Province, the city recorded around 3,000 residential sales transactions in Q3 2025, its highest level in recent years, with volumes up 37% quarter-on-quarter and 58.5% year-on-year. This surge highlights strong demand from both end-users and investors, supported by the city's relative aﬀordability compared with other major Saudi cities.

Dammam Transactions - By Volume 3.5k

3k 2.4k

2.5k

2.3k 2.1k

2.2k

1.9k 1.7k

1.5k 1k 0k

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

Ministry of Justice Sales Transactions

Q4 2024 Real Estate Registry Sales Transactions

Q1 2025

Q2 2025

Q3 2025

Total Residential Sales Transactions

Source: MOJ, RER, Paseetah, Cavendish Maxwell

In terms of sales value, Dammam recorded approximately SAR 3.2 billion in residential transactions in Q3 2025, marking a 9.9% increase from Q2 2025 and a 67.8% rise compared with the same period in 2024.

Dammam Transactions - By Value (SAR) 3.2B

3.5B 2.9B

2.5B

2.5B 2.3B

2.5B

1.9B

1.5B

1.5B 1B 0B

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

Ministry of Justice Sales Transactions Source: MOJ, RER, Paseetah, Cavendish Maxwell

Saudi Arabia Residential Market Performance Q3 2025

Q4 2024 Real Estate Registry Sales Transactions

Q1 2025

Q2 2025

Total Residential Sales Transactions

Q3 2025

Existing and Future Supply: Riyadh In the ﬁrst nine months of 2025, Riyadh delivered approximately 10,000 residential units, with a further 6,000 units expected by year-end. Looking ahead, the capital’s residential pipeline remains strong, with around 57,000 units scheduled for delivery across 2026 and 2027. However, actual completions may be impacted by shifting market dynamics, evolving buyer preferences, and potential construction delays. At the same time, the recently amended White Land Tax is expected to stimulate market activity by encouraging vacant landowners to either develop or release their plots to the market, bringing additional supply into the pipeline. This regulatory push should help narrow the gap between Riyadh’s housing demand and supply, potentially easing price pressures and improving overall aﬀordability.

Riyadh Supply - Number of Units

1,994k

1.990k

1,969k

25k

1,970k 1,937k

1,950k 1,922k

1,930k 1,910k

1,850k

6k 10k

1,894k

1,899k

1,969k 1,937k

1.890k 1,870k

32k

1,894k

2022

1,922k

1.922k

2024

2025 (F*)

1,899k

2023 Existing Supply

Projected Supply

Completed Supply

Upcoming Supply

2026 (F*)

2027 (F*)

Total Units

Source: General Authority for Statistics, MEED Projects, Cavendish Maxwell *The projected supply is based on the information available at the time of preparing the report and may diﬀer from other projections. It is subject to revision as additional details about these projects become available in the future.

Saudi Arabia Residential Market Performance Q3 2025

Existing and Future Supply: Jeddah Jeddah's residential supply grew by approximately 3,000 units in the ﬁrst nine months of 2025, with a further 2,000 expected by year-end and an additional 36,000 projected for delivery across 2026 and 2027. The steady expansion of supply has moderated price growth, supporting a healthier balance between demand and supply while oﬀering buyers greater choice and improving overall market accessibility.

Jeddah Supply - Number of Units 1,133k

1.140k 1,130k 1,113k

1,120k 1,110k 1,092k

1,100k 1,090k

1.082k

1,097k

16k

2k 3k

1,084k

1,113k

1,080k 1.070k

20k

1.082k

1,084k

2022

2023

1,092k

2024

2025 (F*)

1,097k

1,060k 1,050k

Existing Supply

Projected Supply

Completed Supply

Upcoming Supply

2026 (F*)

2027 (F*)

Total Units

Saudi Arabia Residential Market Performance Q3 2025

Existing and Future Supply: Dammam Dammam’s residential supply has experienced modest growth so far in 2025, increasing by approximately 500 units and bringing the city’s total stock to around 430,000 units. Looking ahead, about 1,300 units are expected to enter the market in Q4 2025, with an additional 12,000 units projected for delivery across 2026 and 2027. This steady pipeline of new supply is likely to provide buyers with greater choice and negotiating power, while helping to moderate price growth.

Dammam Supply - Number of Units 445k

443k

440k 435k

435k 430k

430k

426k

427k

435k

425k

420k

431k

426k

427k

2022

2023 Existing Supply

Projected Supply

430k

2024

2025 (F*)

Completed Supply

Upcoming Supply

431k

2026 (F*)

2027 (F*)

Total Units

Saudi Arabia Residential Market Performance Q3 2025

Sales Price and Rental Rates Change – Riyadh Sales prices in Riyadh continued to rise amid limited inventories. By the end of Q3 2025, apartment sales averaged SAR 6,160 per sqm, while villa prices stood at SAR 5,500 per sqm, reflecting 12-month increases of 7.5% and 10.1%, respectively. Looking ahead, demand is expected to accelerate as the market prepares to allow foreign/ non-Saudi ownership. At the same time, the Government is encouraging increased development by taxing vacant land, a measure aimed at incentivising landowners to either sell or develop their plots, which should help boost supply in the medium term. Rental rates for both apartments and villas also continued to climb, rising 11.8% and 10.7% year-on-year, respectively. To address affordability concerns, the Government introduced a new regulation in late September 2025 to freeze rental rates in Riyadh for the next five years. While this measure aims to improve housing affordability, it may also reduce landlords’ incentives to maintain properties and could create short-term pressure on future developments. It will be important to track how these regulations influence market dynamics in the near term.

Riyadh Sales Price Change (%) 12%

10.1%

10% 7.5%

8% 6% 4%

2.7% 2% 1%

2% 0%

Apartments

Villas

Past 12 Months % Change

Past 6 Months % Change

Past 3 Months % Change

Source: Cavendish Maxwell

Riyadh Rental Rates Change (%) 14% 11.8%

12%

10.7%

10%

8.6% 7.1%

8% 6%

4.7%

4% 1.4%

2% 0%

Apartments Past 12 Months % Change

Source: Cavendish Maxwell

Saudi Arabia Residential Market Performance Q3 2025

Villas Past 6 Months % Change

Past 3 Months % Change

Sales Price and Rental Rates Change – Jeddah Despite a growing pipeline of new residential supply, Jeddah’s market has held ﬁrm, maintaining a balanced dynamic between buyers and sellers that has supported steady price growth. By the end of Q3 2025, apartment prices averaged SAR 4,360 per sqm and villa prices reached SAR 5,140 per sqm, marking 12 month increases of 1.6% and 3.1%, respectively. The rental market, however, showed mixed performance, with apartment rents rising 5.6% year on year while villa rents experienced a slight decline of 2.1% over the same period.

Jeddah Sales Price Change (%) 12% 10% 8% 6% 3.1%

4% 2%

1.6%

1.3% 0.1%

0.4%

-0.4%

0% Apartments

Villas

-2% Past 12 Months % Change

Past 6 Months % Change

Past 3 Months % Change

Source: Cavendish Maxwell

Jeddah Rental Rates Change (%) 8% 5.6%

6% 3.8%

1.2%

1.2% -2.1%

0% Apartments

Villas

-2% -4% Past 12 Months % Change

Source: Cavendish Maxwell

Saudi Arabia Residential Market Performance Q3 2025

Past 6 Months % Change

Past 3 Months % Change

1.7%

Sales Price and Rental Rates Change – Dammam In Dammam, the residential market continued to strengthen through Q3 2025, supported by steady demand from both end users and investors alongside limited new supply. As a result, apartment prices rose by 5.8% year on year while villa prices increased by 3.2% over the same period. The rental market also recorded solid gains, with apartment rents climbing 4.8% year on year and villa rents rising 2.2%.

Dammam Sales Price Change (%) 12% 10% 8% 5.8%

6% 3.2%

1.2%

0.7%

0.2%

Apartments

Villas

Past 12 Months % Change

Past 6 Months % Change

Past 3 Months % Change

Source: Cavendish Maxwell

Dammam Rental Rates Change (%) 12% 10% 8% 6%

4.8%

2.9%

2.2% 1.3%

1.2% -0.6%

0% Apartments

Villas

-2% Past 12 Months % Change

Source: Cavendish Maxwell

Saudi Arabia Residential Market Performance Q3 2025

Past 6 Months % Change

Past 3 Months % Change

Real Estate Market Outlook Saudi Arabia’s residential real estate market is expected to expand further in 2026, supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals, continued Government investment in infrastructure, and the ongoing implementation of Vision 2030 initiatives. While overall sentiment remains positive, market dynamics continue to vary across major cities. In Riyadh, the residential market is gradually stabilising after a period of rapid growth. Although transaction activity slowed earlier in 2025 due to affordability pressures, demand remains resilient, particularly for high-quality apartments and villas. The introduction of foreign/ non-Saudi ownership rules is expected to unlock significant demand both in the capital and across the Kingdom, especially from expatriates and regional investors, potentially boosting transaction volumes. Meanwhile, the amended White Land Tax is likely to encourage landowners to release plots or proceed with development, gradually easing supply constraints that have contributed to price growth in recent years. However, the five-year rental freeze introduced in late 2025 may reduce landlords’ incentives to maintain properties or invest in future rental stock, potentially placing short-term pressure on new developments. Jeddah’s residential market outlook remains stable and broadly positive, supported by a more balanced relationship between supply and demand compared with Riyadh. The steady pipeline of new units scheduled for delivery through 2026 and 2027 is expected to keep price growth moderate, provide buyers with a wider range of options, and enhance overall affordability. Dammam is emerging as one of Saudi Arabia’s most dynamic residential markets, driven by strong buyer demand, relative affordability, and robust economic activity in the Eastern Province. Transaction volumes and values have surged in recent quarters, reflecting heightened interest from both end users and investors seeking growth opportunities. With a manageable supply pipeline planned for 2026 and 2027, the city is well positioned to absorb new inventory without significant oversupply risks. Over the medium term, continued economic expansion, demographic growth, and ongoing policy reforms are expected to support continued residential market activity across the Kingdom, while gradually improving affordability and enhancing long-term accessibility for a broad range of households.

Saudi Arabia’s residential market in Q3 2025 reﬂects a transitional phase marked by strong macroeconomic fundamentals and evolving regulatory measures. While Riyadh

faces

aﬀordability

challenges

following rapid price growth, demand remains resilient, supported by upcoming foreign/ non-Saudi ownership reforms and incentives like the amended White Land Tax. Jeddah demonstrates stability with balanced supply-demand dynamics, and Dammam stands out as a growth hotspot

driven

aﬀordability

and

investor interest. Looking ahead, Vision 2030

initiatives

and

infrastructure

investments will be pivotal in sustaining momentum

and

unlocking

opportunities across all major cities.

Sean Heckford

Director, Built Asset Consulting

Saudi Arabia Residential Market Performance Q3 2025

new

Authors Julian Roche

Ali Siddiqui

Chief Economist Cavendish Maxwell julian.roche@cavendishmaxwell.com

Research Manager ali.siddiqui@cavendishmaxwell.com +971 50 877 0190

Key Contacts Kevin Duﬃeld

Sean Heckford

Director, Head of Built Asset Consulting kevin.duﬃeld@cavendishmaxwell.com +971 56 344 2177 / +966 59 496 3815

Director, Built Asset Consulting sean.heckford@cavendishmaxwell.com +966 53 674 0411

Zacky Sajjad

Siraj Ahmed

Director, Business Development and Client Relations zacky.sajjad@cavendishmaxwell.com +971 50 644 5089

Director, Head of Strategy and Consulting siraj.ahmed@cavendishmaxwell.com +971 50 382 4409

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