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2026 MARKET OUTLOOK

CHARLOTTE AREA

RALEIGH TRIANGLE REGION & COAST

Prepared for buyers, sellers, and homeowners navigating a changing residential real estate market.

WINSTON-SALEM & TRIAD

ASHEVILLE & MOUNTAINS REGION

TABLE OF CONTENTS 2

Executive Overview

National Outlook

Asheville & Mountains Region

Raleigh & Triangle Region

Winston-Salem & Triad Region

Charlotte Area

Disclaimer: This report is intended for general informational purposes only and is not a guarantee of future market performance. The insights, trends, and forecasts presented reflect data available at the time of publication, along with professional observations from ERA Live Moore based on national, regional, and local housing market activity. Real estate markets are influenced by many factors—including economic conditions, interest rates, local inventory, and individual circumstances —which may change over time. Nothing in this report should be construed as legal, tax, financial, or investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with qualified professionals regarding their specific situation before making real estate or financial decisions. Market conditions, pricing, and availability can vary significantly by location and property type. Local expertise and current data are essential when evaluating any real estate opportunity. Each ERA® office is independently owned and operated. Copyright ©2025.

EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW Over the past several years, housing has felt anything but steady. We’ve moved from the rapid acceleration of the pandemic and post-pandemic market, to historic affordability challenges, to a period many described as “frozen”—where buyers hesitated, sellers stayed put, and uncertainty shaped nearly every decision. As we look ahead to 2026, the data, and our day-to-day experience working in markets across North Carolina and the Carolinas, points to something different: We are entering a new era defined less by extremes and more by balance. This report was created to help buyers, sellers, and homeowners make sense of what comes next. Its purpose is not to predict headlines, but to provide clarity—grounded in national trends, regional insights, and local market realities, so you can make informed, confident decisions about your home and your future. Across North Carolina, the pause in housing mobility is beginning to thaw. Homeowners who postponed moves during years of rate volatility are slowly re-entering the market, driven by life changes rather than market timing alone. At the same time, inventory is gradually improving, giving buyers more choice and restoring a healthier rhythm to buying and selling. Pricing is no longer racing ahead, but it isn’t retreating either—placing greater importance on thoughtful strategy, accurate positioning, and strong local guidance. 2026 is not shaping up to be a boom or a bust. Instead, it reflects a return to equilibrium: a market where fundamentals matter, negotiations are more balanced, and success depends less on speed and more on preparation. For homeowners, this means a clearer understanding of equity and long-term value. For sellers, it means realistic pricing and purposeful marketing. For buyers, it means opportunity—paired with the need to be informed and decisive. Throughout this outlook, we’ll explore the trends shaping the national housing landscape, examine what those signals mean for North Carolina by highlighting how our regional markets across the Carolinas are positioned for the year ahead. Our goal is simple: to replace uncertainty with insight, and to help you move forward—whether that means buying, selling, or staying put— with confidence and clarity. As the New Year begins, we remain focused on what matters most—helping clients move up by empowering dreams through real estate, supported by insight, experience, and trusted guidance. Warm regards, Scott McKenzie Broker-In-Charge | REALTOR® Carolina Mountain Sales

CarolinaMountainSales.com | Info@CarolinaMountainSales.com | 828.277.5551

NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK

A Return to Balance.

For the first time in years, the national housing conversation is shifting away from extremes. No frantic bidding wars. No sharp corrections. No dramatic headlines. Instead, the data points to something far less exciting—and far more useful: a stable, functional housing market. After half a decade defined by volatility, 2026 is shaping up to be a steady year nationally. And for buyers, sellers, and homeowners alike, boring is a welcome change. Home prices have largely stopped racing ahead of incomes. Mortgage rates, while still elevated compared to the 2010s, are no longer fluctuating month to month. Inventory is finally rebuilding, and transaction activity is beginning to thaw after a long freeze. In short, the housing market is starting to behave like a market again.

Key National Forecasts for 2026. Home Prices National home prices are expected to be essentially flat in 2026, with a projected average change of approximately +0.5%. That doesn’t signal weakness—it signals normalization. After years of rapid appreciation, prices are pausing long enough for wages to catch up. This plateau creates breathing room for buyers while helping homeowners hold onto the equity they’ve built. Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates are stabilizing rather than falling dramatically. We expect most of 2026 to trade in a range between 5.9% and 6.9%, with an average near 6.4%. While this is higher than the historic lows of the pandemic era, it represents a return to predictability. Buyers can plan. Sellers can price with confidence. Refinancing expectations are becoming more realistic. Inventory Inventory is finally moving in the right direction. Nationally, homes for sale are projected to increase by roughly 10%, giving buyers options they haven’t had since before 2020. While supply remains below long-term historical averages, the imbalance that defined recent years is easing. Sales Volume With stability comes momentum. National home sales are expected to rise by about 5% in 2026 as pent-up demand begins to surface. Many households that postponed moves during the rate shock of 2022–2024 are re-entering the market—not out of urgency, but because life decisions can no longer be deferred.

CAROLINA MOUNTAIN SALES

2026 MARKET OUTLOOK

NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK The Three Big Trends Shaping 2026 1. Affordability Improves—Gradually Affordability is improving, but not because prices are collapsing. Instead, it’s improving the slow, sustainable way: through flat prices, modest wage growth, and fewer bidding wars. Buyers waiting for a dramatic 20% price drop are likely to remain on the sidelines. However, a market where inspections are normal again, negotiations are possible, and decisions don’t have to be made in 48 hours carries real financial value. 2. The Lock-In Effect Is Fading For years, homeowners were frozen in place by ultra-low mortgage rates. Trading a 3% loan for a 7% one simply didn’t make sense. That dynamic is changing. By the end of 2025, more homeowners nationally will hold mortgage rates above 6% than below 3%. As that shift takes hold, mobility returns. Moves driven by jobs, family needs, downsizing, or lifestyle changes are once again becoming feasible. 3. A Geographic Rebalancing Is Underway Northern and Midwest markets remain supply-constrained, but inventory growth is accelerating in the Sun Belt—including the Carolinas. This regional shift matters. It gives buyers more leverage, more time, and more negotiating power than they’ve had in years. Sellers still benefit from strong long-term demand, but the advantage is no longer one-sided. National Home Price Trends (FHFA) The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index provides a clear visual of this transition. After years of uneven regional growth, the latest FHFA data shows widespread moderation across the country—particularly in many Sun Belt markets—supporting the outlook for flat national pricing and improved balance in 2026.

NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK

What This Means Going Into 2026

The national housing market is not crashing—and it’s not overheating. It’s recalibrating. For buyers, that means choice and leverage. For sellers, it means pricing and presentation matter again. For homeowners, it means equity is holding steady while mobility gradually returns. This is a market that rewards preparation, local expertise, and thoughtful decision-making— exactly the kind of environment where good advice matters most.

North Carolina Metro Rankings: FHFA Top 100 Metro Areas (2025 Q3)

Several North Carolina metro areas remain among the FHFA’s Top 100 U.S. markets for yearover-year home price growth, though gains have moderated significantly compared to prior years — another signal of a more balanced market heading into 2026. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), 2025 Q3 HPI Metro Rankings

Rank

Metro Area

YoY Price Change

Greensboro–High Point, NC

4.70%

Charlotte–Concord–Gastonia, NC–SC

2.40%

Raleigh–Cary, NC

1.10%

What This Means for You

For Buyers The pace has changed—and that’s a good thing. You’ll see more options, fewer pressure-filled decisions, and a market that rewards thoughtful planning. While prices aren’t falling dramatically, the combination of stable pricing and calmer competition gives you more control than you’ve had in years. In many cases, the ability to negotiate and move at a measured pace can matter just as much as the interest rate itself. For Sellers Today’s buyers are more deliberate, but they’re still very much in the market. Homes that are priced well, prepared properly, and marketed thoughtfully continue to perform. The difference in 2026 is that success depends less on urgency and more on strategy. Sellers who understand current buyer expectations—and work with professionals who do—are well positioned to achieve solid, confident 6 outcomes.

REGIONAL MARKET OUTLOOK: ASHEVILLE & THE MOUNTAINS Regional Outlook: Asheville & the Mountains Region

Real estate in Western North Carolina doesn’t move to the rhythm of job announcements or office reopenings. It moves to the rhythm of place. The Asheville region has long attracted buyers looking for more than a commute — and that hasn’t changed. What has changed is who can act on that preference. Remote and hybrid work have quietly re-shaped demand here, allowing professionals to choose where they live without fully stepping away from careers rooted elsewhere. Asheville and the surrounding mountain communities continue to benefit from that flexibility — not as a boomtown, but as a steady lifestyle market. Homes here are often chosen as part of a broader life decision — downsizing, relocating, simplifying, or re-prioritizing. That tends to reduce panic selling and limit oversupply during periods of uncertainty. Remote Work as a Structural Support Unlike urban cores dependent on daily office attendance, Asheville benefits from buyers whose income is portable. That doesn’t make the market immune to economic shifts, but it does provide a durable baseline of demand. In 2025, Asheville showed signs of moderation relative to other North Carolina metros. That softness wasn’t driven by distress. Instead, it reflected a pause in discretionary buying as interest rates, equity markets, and national uncertainty encouraged patience. Importantly, owners didn’t rush for the exits, and long-term demand for the region remained intact. As we move into 2026, Asheville’s market is best described as selective rather than stalled. Buyers are intentional. Sellers who understand pricing, condition, and setting continue to find success. And homes that capture what people come here for — views, privacy, craftsmanship, proximity to town or trail — remain in demand. This is not a market chasing speed. It’s a market anchored by quality of life. Distinctive Properties Outlook — Asheville & the Mountains The Asheville luxury market is shaped by long-term lifestyle demand rather than short-term market cycles. Recent price adjustments reflect a period of recalibration, not retreat, as discerning buyers remain focused on quality, setting, and lasting value. Well-located properties offering privacy, views, and architectural character continue to attract attention, though decision-making is more deliberate. Looking ahead to 2026, the market favors sellers who align pricing and presentation with the expectations of a highly selective audience.

CAROLINA MOUNTAIN SALES

2026 MARKET OUTLOOK

REGIONAL MARKET OUTLOOK: ASHEVILLE & THE MOUNTAINS Second-Home Sensitivity — Without Volatility Yes, discretionary buyers pause when confidence dips. But unlike resort markets that swing sharply, Asheville’s mix of primary, secondary, and long-term owners smooths those cycles. What This Means for Buyers & Sellers in 2026 For Buyers: Opportunity lies in patience and preparation. This is a market where understanding microlocations matters more than timing headlines. For Sellers: Success hinges on realism. Homes that are priced and presented thoughtfully still sell — often to buyers who have been waiting for the right fit. 2026 Outlook: What to Expect Stable pricing for well-positioned homes, particularly those with views, privacy, or close-in locations Longer decision timelines for buyers — and more negotiation on homes that miss the mark with regards to pricing or features, finishes, and amenities Spring and early summer strength, with activity tied closely to confidence rather than urgency Continued appeal to those relocating, remote professionals, and downsizers seeking lifestyle alignment Asheville’s recent price moderation stands in contrast to nearby metros, highlighting the region’s sensitivity to discretionary and lifestyle-driven demand. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), All-Transactions House Price Index, Metro Areas (Q3 2025).

REGIONAL MARKET OUTLOOK: RALEIGH & TRIANGLE REGION Regional outlook: Raleigh & the Triangle (2026)

The Triangle doesn’t behave like “average America,” and that’s exactly the point. Raleigh– Durham–Chapel Hill is still anchored by research, healthcare, and tech, which tends to keep demand steadier than markets that rely more heavily on cyclical industries. At the same time, it’s not immune to the K-shaped split: households with stable, higher incomes (and equity/stock exposure) keep moving forward, while entry-level buyers remain more ratesensitive and payment-constrained. Nationally, the latest FHFA quarterly data shows price growth has cooled into a more modest gear—2.2% year-over-year as of 2025 Q3—signaling a market that’s normalizing rather than collapsing. That “cooling” backdrop is what makes local demand drivers (jobs, in-migration, and new construction) matter even more in 2026.

What we expect in 2026 (Triangle-specific)

1) Luxury market: likely to lead the pack In the Triangle, the $1M+ segment tends to be powered less by “monthly payment math” and more by equity, liquidity, and lifestyle choices (relocation, executive moves, second-home decisions, and move-up buyers who’ve already built wealth). That’s why luxury can remain comparatively resilient even when the broader market feels choppy. You can already see the shape of this: Raleigh prices have been inching up year-over-year while homes are taking longer to sell—classic “slower, not stopped.” 2) Inventory: more choices, and more leverage for prepared buyers Across North Carolina, active listings were up year-over-year as of November 2025. More supply doesn’t automatically mean falling prices—but it does change the tone of the market: buyers get room to be selective (layout, location, inspections, contingencies), sellers have to compete (presentation, pricing, strategic improvements), and “best house on the block” matters again. 3) A more “segmented” market, neighborhood by neighborhood In 2026, the Triangle is likely to feel like several mini-markets running at once: Turnkey homes in prime locations (and thoughtfully renovated properties) still draw strong interest. Homes that feel “overpriced for condition,” or that miss today’s wish-list items (office space, functional floor plan, energy efficiency), sit longer and invite negotiation. Newer construction and communities with amenities can pull demand—especially when builders offer incentives that resale sellers can’t match. CAROLINA MOUNTAIN SALES

2026 MARKET OUTLOOK

REGIONAL MARKET OUTLOOK: RALEIGH & TRIANGLE REGION What this means for you If you’re buying (especially in 2026): More inventory means you can prioritize fit—not just availability. Your advantage is preparation: strong underwriting, clarity on must-haves, and the ability to move quickly when the right home appears. In many cases, the “win” won’t be a dramatic price drop—it’ll be better terms (repairs, credits, rate buydowns, closing timelines). If you’re selling: Expect fewer “easy offers.” The best results will come from price discipline + presentation. The market is less forgiving of homes that are dated, cluttered, or priced ahead of the comparable set. If you’re in the luxury tier, invest in a launch that looks and feels premium—today’s highend buyers are picky, but they still pay for quality and scarcity. If you’re a homeowner (not moving): The story is stability and optionality. The Triangle’s fundamentals help protect long-term value, even as the market returns to a more sustainable pace. If you’re considering renovations, focus on improvements that hold value across cycles: kitchens, baths, functional space, and energy performance. Raleigh-Cary’s price growth moderated over the past year, reflecting a transition toward a more balanced market. While short-term appreciation has slowed relative to nearby metros, the Triangle continues to benefit from long-term demand drivers tied to research, healthcare, and technology employment.

REGIONAL MARKET OUTLOOK: WINSTON-SALEM & THE TRIAD Regional Outlook: Winston-Salem and the Triad (2026)

As the North Carolina housing market transitions into a more normalized phase, the Triad enters 2026 from a position of balance. Home prices remain accessible relative to many peer metros, inventory is gradually improving, and demand continues to be shaped by practical household decisions rather than speculative pressure. For buyers, sellers, and homeowners alike, this creates a market that feels more navigable—and more predictable—than in recent years. Affordability remains the Triad’s most consistent advantage. While higher-cost markets across the state have faced sharper affordability constraints, Winston-Salem and the surrounding Triad communities continue to attract buyers whose purchasing power stretches further here. That value proposition supports steady demand even as financing conditions fluctuate and keeps the region insulated from abrupt corrections. Mobility is improving, especially in mid-range housing One of the most meaningful shifts heading into 2026 is the gradual return of homeowner mobility. The “lock-in” effect that suppressed listings from 2023 through 2025 is easing as households adjust expectations around interest rates. In the Triad, this shows up most clearly in mid-range neighborhoods, where families who delayed upsizing, downsizing, or relocating are beginning to re-enter the market. The result is a healthier flow of listings without the imbalance that comes from sudden oversupply. Stability favors realistic pricing and informed decisions Statewide forecasts point to modest softening in some markets, but the Triad’s pricing dynamics tend to move in smaller increments. Demand here is driven less by momentum and more by fundamentals—commutes, school districts, space needs, and monthly affordability. That foundation supports more stable negotiations, fewer extreme price swings, and a market that rewards preparation over urgency. Recent FHFA data places Triad price growth in a moderate range compared with higher-volatility metros, reinforcing expectations for a measured 2026. What this means heading into 2026: Buyers Expect more options than in the past two years and improved negotiating leverage, particularly on homes that need updates or are priced aggressively. Well-positioned, move-in-ready homes can still attract strong interest, but the pace should feel more manageable. Sellers The market rewards preparation. Homes that are priced to current conditions and presented thoughtfully continue to perform, even without the urgency-driven bidding of prior years. Strategic pricing and transparency matter more than timing alone. Homeowners (not moving) The Triad continues to offer a steady equity environment—less dramatic upside, but fewer jolts. For many homeowners, 2026 looks like a year of consolidation and stability rather than disruption. CAROLINA MOUNTAIN SALES

2026 MARKET OUTLOOK

REGIONAL MARKET OUTLOOK: WINSTON-SALEM & THE TRIAD Why the Triad Behaves the Way It Does

The Triad’s housing market is shaped by structure rather than speed. A diversified economic base—including healthcare, education, logistics, manufacturing, and professional services— supports housing demand across income levels and reduces reliance on any single industry. This balance helps cushion the region from abrupt shifts tied to sector-specific slowdowns. Affordability anchors demand. Home prices across Winston-Salem and the broader Triad remain meaningfully lower than in Charlotte, the Triangle, and many coastal markets. That affordability widens the buyer pool and encourages longer-term ownership. Buyers here are more likely to focus on livability and value than short-term appreciation, which naturally tempers volatility. Turnover is returning without excess. As postponed moves resume, inventory is increasing in a constructive way. Listings are coming to market steadily rather than all at once, giving buyers more choice while allowing sellers to remain competitive—particularly when homes are priced realistically and well presented. Price growth reflects fundamentals, not hype. While some nearby metros experience sharper highs and lows, Winston-Salem’s recent price performance reflects consistent demand rather than speculative acceleration. That grounding supports confidence for homeowners and creates a more rational decision-making environment for buyers and sellers alike. While some nearby markets experience sharper highs and lows, Winston-Salem’s price growth remains grounded—supported by affordability, steady demand, and diversified local employment. Source: FHFA Purchase-Only HPI, Q3 2025.

REGIONAL MARKET OUTLOOK: CHARLOTTE AREA Regional Market Outlook: Charlotte, North Carolina

A closer look at one of the Carolinas’ most influential housing markets While national headlines tend to flatten the story, real estate in practice is intensely local—and nowhere is that more evident than in the Charlotte region. According to Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data and forward-looking forecasts, North Carolina is projected to rank near the bottom nationally for price appreciation in 2026, with an estimated –1.2% statewide cooling. That number understandably catches attention, but context matters. This is not a signal of distress. It reflects a market finding its footing after several years of rapid, outsized gains. What this means specifically for Charlotte Charlotte remains one of the Southeast’s most important economic engines. The metro continues to benefit from population growth, corporate relocations, a diversified employment base, and long-term infrastructure investment. Over the past two years, inventory has steadily increased as new construction, resale listings, and buyer hesitancy converge. This shift is visible in FHFA’s regional and metro-level House Price Index data, which shows appreciation slowing meaningfully across much of the Southeast, including the Charlotte–Concord–Gastonia metro area. Prices have not collapsed —but the pace has cooled, and volatility has narrowed. In practical terms, Charlotte is transitioning from an overheated seller’s market to a more balanced, more rational environment. Homes that are well-priced, well-presented, and welllocated continue to attract strong interest. Homes that miss the mark now linger longer and invite wider negotiation. For Sellers 2026 will reward realism. The era of “testing the market” with an aspirational price is largely behind us. With statewide values expected to flatten or dip modestly, pricing accurately from day one is the single most important decision a seller can make. Buyers are more informed, less emotional, and increasingly sensitive to value. Homes that launch correctly still sell efficiently; those that don’t often require price reductions that ultimately cost more than pricing right at the outset.

CAROLINA MOUNTAIN SALES

2026 MARKET OUTLOOK 13

REGIONAL MARKET OUTLOOK: CHARLOTTE AREA For Buyers This market offers something buyers haven’t had in years: choice and leverage. Expect to see more price reductions, longer days on market, and a greater willingness from sellers to negotiate—not just on price, but also on repairs, closing costs, and terms. While interest rates still matter, the balance of power has shifted enough that disciplined buyers can be selective and strategic without the fear of instantly losing out. The Bigger Picture Charlotte’s outlook for 2026 is best described as stable, maturing, and opportunity-rich. The fundamentals that made this market desirable haven’t disappeared. What has changed is the tempo. For buyers and sellers alike, success in 2026 will hinge less on momentum and more on strategy, preparation, and local insight—exactly where experienced guidance matters most.

Charlotte vs. Regional Peer Metros: 1-Year Home Price Change (FHFA, through 2025 Q3) This visual shows Charlotte’s +2.4% year-over-year appreciation versus select nearby/peer metros— highlighting that Charlotte remains positive and relatively steady while some large Sun Belt markets have moved into flat-to-negative territory.

CAROLINA MOUNTAIN SALES

2026 MARKET OUTLOOK

Your Next Steps for 2026: What to Look for in Our Markets Across NC For Our Homeowners & Sellers: • Pricing is Everything: With roughly 42% of listings nationally taking price cuts recently, you cannot afford to overprice. A flat market can have negative consequences for overly-ambitious pricing. • The Window is Open: If you have been waiting to move, 2026 offers a more predictable environment. You likely have significant equity, and with rates stabilizing, the financial shock of moving is lessening. For Our Buyers: • Mortgage Rates Trend Downwards: Mortgage rates may drift slightly lower (forecast average 6.4%), but waiting for "perfect" rates is risky. If you find the right home, you have negotiating power now that you won't have if rates drop to 5.5% and competition floods back in. • Look for "Shadow" Opportunities: Withdrawal rates have been high, meaning many sellers pulled their homes off the market in 2025. These homes are "shadow inventory"—they want to sell, and a skilled agent can help you find them before they hit the open market. CAROLINA MOUNTAIN SALES

2026 MARKET OUTLOOK

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