Q1 2026 Market Report | Heinrich Brooksher Real Estate Group

Q1 2026 Market Report

Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point ◆ Greater Carmel ◆ Carmel Valley ◆ Pebble Beach

Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast ◆ Pacific Grove ◆ Monterey & Del Rey Oaks

Dear Clients and Friends,

We at the Heinrich Brooksher Real Estate Group are proud to be a part of Carmel Realty Company and to serve our incredible clients and friends throughout the Greater Carmel and Monterey Peninsula areas. As we reflect on Q2 2025, we want to take a moment to thank you for your continued trust and support. Your referrals, loyalty, and kind words fuel everything we do, and we’re deeply grateful to be your resource for real estate guidance in such a dynamic market within this beautiful place we get to call home.

As we move through the early months of 2026, the real estate market both nationally and here on the Monterey Peninsula continues to navigate a dynamic and evolving landscape. Ongoing volatility in the financial markets, coupled with uncertainty around interest rates and broader economic policy, has led many buyers and sellers to proceed thoughtfully. Despite these headwinds, our market remains grounded in long-term fundamentals, with many recognizing the enduring value of owning property along this unique and beautiful stretch of coastline. As in years past, we continue to adapt alongside our clients, providing guidance through changing conditions while focusing on long-term opportunity.

As winter transitioned into spring and the longer sunlit days of early summer, the Monterey Peninsula real estate market entered its active selling season. The second quarter traditionally brings heightened energy to the market, and the early part of the quarter delivered, driven by fresh inventory, strong buyer interest, and the unmistakable allure of life along the Monterey Peninsula’s iconic coastline. However, the momentum briefly paused as global economic uncertainty—sparked by newly announced tariffs and a sharp dip in the stock market—led to a temporary slowdown in transactions. Still, the resilience of the market quickly reasserted itself. By June, activity picked up once again, closing out the quarter with strength and signaling renewed confidence as we head into the heart of the summer season.

Entering April, the Monterey Peninsula’s real estate market was easily outperforming 2024 numbers, with 12% more sales transactions and 21% more sales volume. When the US announced it was placing new tariffs on countries across the globe in early April, the country saw the US stock market plummet. The real estate market also saw an extreme slowdown in homes going into escrow during the month of April. Because of so few homes entering escrow in April, May 2025 saw 44 less transactions on the peninsula than May of 2024. As tariffs were quickly taken off and the stock market rapidly recovered, the real estate market also bounced back and June 2025 outperformed June 2024. Looking at the first six months of the year, 2025 has now seen one less sale than 2024, but is up 4.28% in average sales price and total sales volume is up 4.08% year-over-year.

The Monterey Peninsula market delivered a strong start to the year. In fact, Q1 2026 marked the best first quarter in the past four years, with 246 total sales, an average sales price of $2.02M, and total sales volume reaching $499M. Across the Peninsula’s premier coastal markets, luxury demand reemerged as a defining theme of the quarter. Carmel-by-the-Sea saw a notable increase in high-end transactions, with 35% of all sales closing above $5M, driving a sharp rise in both average price and overall volume. Pebble Beach saw the return of ultra-luxury activity, including two sales above $20M, the first seen in over three years in the area, along with another $10M transaction and several others above $5M. In Carmel Highlands and Big Sur, a limited number of transactions once again produced meaningful pricing strength, reinforcing the enduring appeal of these highly sought-after, low-inventory coastal properties. Together, these markets continue to demonstrate how a relatively small number of high-value transactions can significantly influence overall market performance on the Peninsula.

Most areas across the Peninsula experienced good, but not great, sales levels during Q2. One of the top performing areas of the quarter was the Greater Carmel area, which doubled its number of sales and saw a 58% increase in sales volume versus Q1. Carmel Highlands and Big Sur combined for nine sales during the quarter, a strong number for the area. While Carmel-by-the-Sea saw a typical number of sales, the average sales price in the area jumped back up above $4.5M for the first time in over a year thanks to three large sales over $13M. Carmel Realty Company Agents were proud to have represented five of the six transaction sides on these three luxury sales. Two of these were double-ended sales that occurred off market, putting on display the access and powerful network our Agents bring to the table when assisting their clients.

Each of the nine markets we serve navigate a constant balancing act between supply, demand and pricing. This makes it essential to have experienced, local, expert representation when buying or selling a home.

Greater Carmel also experienced increased sales activity, due to a higher concentration of transactions in communities such as Del Mesa and Hacienda Carmel. In addition, the slower moving inventory in the Carmel Woods neighborhood saw several closures which contributed to longer days on market. Carmel Valley remained steady overall, with consistent transaction volume and a well-distributed mix of sales across price segments, while activity accelerated toward the end of the quarter, positioning the area for a strong spring.

As always, we are here as a trusted partner—whether you’re exploring a move, considering an investment, or simply have a question about real estate. If you know someone who may benefit from our service, we would be honored to help them. Thank you for being part of our community. We look forward to staying in touch and continuing to serve you with integrity, insight, and care.

We hope you find this perspective helpful and would be glad to connect as you consider your next steps.

We hope you enjoy the following detailed analytic view of our market.

Warm regards,

Warm regards,

Ben, Carole, Zach, Isabel, and Courtney

Ben, Carole, Zach, Isabel, and Courtney

Market Update

Market Update

Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point

Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point

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Carmel-by-the-Sea saw a typical start to the year in terms of number of transactions, with 20 home sales closing during the quarter. While the number of sales was par for the course, the average sales price spiked this quarter, totaling $4.86M, which was the highest over the past five quarters. This was thanks to an above average number of $5M+ sales to begin the year. Seven out of the 20 sales (35%) came in over $5M in sale price. As a result, total sales volume was up 46% year-over-year. Carmel Realty Company and partner brokerage Monterey Coast Realty, saw Agents represent clients on at least one side of the five highest priced transactions during Q1. Overall, 13 different Agents in our family of brokerages represented 18 out of 40 total transaction sides (40%) and over 46% of total sales volume in Carmel-by-the-Sea and Carmel Point during Q1 2026. These totals were each over double the nearest competing brokerage.

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Q1 2026 Quarterly Market Breakdown

Average vs. Median Sales Price in millions

Total Sales Volume By Quarter in millions

Number of Closed Sales By Quarter

Did You Know?

Median Sales Price in millions

Carmel-by-the-Sea is known for attracting various celebrities and artists. Clint Eastwood served as mayor of the village from 1986-1988. Other notable celebrities, artists and writers who have called Carmel home include Doris Day, John Denver, Ansel Adams and Jack London.

“Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020

Greater Carmel

Carmel Woods, Mission Fields, Hatton Fields, Carmel Hills, High Meadows, Jacks Peak, Carmel Meadows, Carmel Views/ Rancho Rio Vista, Carmel Rancho, Hacienda/Del Mesa

The Greater Carmel area had a nice quarter with 25 sales, after just 20 sales in Q1 last year. Twelve of the 25 sales during the quarter came from Del Mesa or Hacienda Carmel, which brought average sales price down year-over-year, coming in at $1.78M for the quarter. Six additional sales came from the Carmel Woods neighborhood, which was nice to see as the neighborhood was having a slower time selling during 2025. These Carmel Woods sales did contribute to the average days on market during the quarter rising to 80 days, the highest since Q1 2020. Carmel Realty Agents represented clients on five of these six Carmel Woods sales.

Days on Market 80 Average Selling Price $1,785,016

25% versus Q1 2025 versus Q4 2025 24.2% versus Q4 2025 3.3% versus Q1 2025 37.9% versus Q4 2025 70.2% versus Q1 2025 2.7% versus Q4 2025 27.7% versus Q1 2025 22.1%

Q1 2026 Quarterly Market Breakdown

Average vs. Median Sales Price in millions

Total Sales Volume By Quarter in millions

Number of Closed Sales By Quarter

Median Sales Price in millions

Did You Know?

Robert Louis Stevenson modeled Treasure Island’s Spyglass Hill after Point Lobos State Reserve near Carmel. “Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020

Market Update

Carmel Valley

Including Santa Lucia Preserve

Carmel Valley had an average start to the year with 26 sales during Q1, just one below 2025’s Q1 number. The average sales price just topped $2M for the quarter, up 16.8% from Q4, but down 7.4% from last year’s Q1 average. The average days to sell in this area remains higher than most others across the Peninsula, totaling 90 for Q1, about the same as last year’s average of 94 days. The sales by segment found a balance during Q1 with 10 sales in the $1M-$2M range and 10 sales also in the $2M-$3M range. There were also a balanced 3 sales below $1M and 3 sales above $3M during the quarter. After just 12 closed sales over the first two months of the quarter, March saw 14 sales close in Carmel Valley with another 15 in escrow, showing promise for a nice spring bump moving into Q2.

Average Days on Market

90 Average Selling Price $2,012,852

Units Sold

26 Sales Volume $52,334,150

3.7% versus Q1 2025 versus Q4 2025 16.1% versus Q4 2025 2.1% versus Q1 2025 2.3% versus Q4 2025 34.3% versus Q1 2025 10.8% versus Q1 2025 7.4% versus Q4 2025 16.8%

Q1 2026 Quarterly Market Breakdown

Average vs. Median Sales Price in millions

Total Sales Volume By Quarter in millions

Number of Closed Sales By Quarter

Median Sales Price in millions

Did You Know?

Monterey County has 349 vineyards, 82 bonded wineries and 65 tasting rooms. The wide range of climates allow Monterey County to grow over 30 different wine grape varietals.

“Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020

Pebble Beach

The first quarter of 2026 saw the return of the $20M buyer to Pebble Beach, with two such sales occurring during the quarter, after over three years without a $20M sale (since November 2022). In addition, one other $10M home sold, along with four more sales in the $5M-$9M range. The area saw 21 sales during the quarter, which was lower than any quarter last year, but beat out three of the four quarterly totals during a quiet 2024. Carmel Realty and Monterey Coast dominated the Pebble Beach market, representing at least one transaction side on 15 of the 21 sales during Q1, four of which were double ended. In total our family of brokerages represented 19 out of 42 transaction sides (45%), and 50% of total sales volume during Q1. The average days to sell was high in the area, totaling 84 days during Q1. This number continues to inch back to the 100+ average days we saw in the years leading up to 2020.

$6,004,310

Average Days on Market

84 Average Selling Price

21 Sales Volume

Statistics Units Sold

8.7% versus Q1 2025 versus Q4 2025 27.6% versus Q4 2025 31.8% versus Q4 2025 no change versus Q1 2025 58.5% versus Q1 2025 92.7% versus Q1 2025 111% versus Q4 2025 82%

$126,090,500

Q1 2026 Quarterly Market Breakdown

Quarter

Number of Closed Sales By Quarter

“Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020 Did You Know?

17-Mile Drive through Pebble Beach is one of only nine private toll roads in the country, and the only one west of the Mississippi.

Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast

The Carmel Highlands and Big Sur area saw five sales during Q1 2026, the same as the previous year’s total. Four of these sales occurred in Carmel Highlands with the fifth taking place down the Big Sur Coast near Notley’s Landing. The average sales price for the quarter was $3.7M, up 6.3% year-over-year. Three sales occurred in the $2M-$3M range, with the other two falling between $5M-$5.5M. With 23 active listings, there is a good amount of inventory for this low transaction volume area. Our family of brokerages was pleased to represent both sides of two of the five sales during the quarter, each taking place in the Carmel Highlands.

Average Selling Price $3,703,000

versus Q1 2025 6.3% versus Q4 2025 48.5%

Average Days on Market

127

versus Q1 2025 2.4% versus Q4 2025

$18,515,000

versus Q1 2025 6.3% versus Q4 2025

Units Sold

5 Sales Volume

no change

versus Q1 2025 versus Q4 2025

Q1 2026 Quarterly Market Breakdown

Average vs. Median Sales Price in millions

2 homes 3 homes

Total Sales Volume By Quarter in millions

Number of Closed Sales By Quarter

Median Sales Price in millions

Did You Know?

Local settings from around the Monterey Peninsula have provided the backdrops for more than 180 films and television shows. You’ll recognize many scenes in HBO’s award winning mini-series Big Little Lies in Big Sur and the Carmel Highlands.

“Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020

Pacific Grove

After an incredible Q4 2025 which saw 52 sales and almost $82M in sales volume, Pacific Grove had a quiet Q1 2026. The area saw just 27 sales, the lowest number since Q1 2024. A slower than usual month of February contributed to this drop in sales, but March rebounded nicely with 16 sales in the month alone. In addition to low transaction numbers, the average sales price for the quarter came in at $1.43M, the lowest since Q4 2022. 21 of the 27 sales during the quarter fell in the $1M-$2M price range, with just two sales over $2M during the quarter. While the sales numbers were not up to last year’s numbers, the average number of days to sell remained low at just 38 days. This was the second lowest of all areas across the Monterey Peninsula (trailing only Marina), showing demand is still very high in this area. Inventory is also strong in Pacific Grove, with 33 listings moving into Q2, the most seen in the area at the time dating back to 2020. With good inventory and several homes in escrow, Pacific Grove is primed for a bounce-back second quarter.

$1,429,828

Average Days on Market

38 Average Selling Price

versus Q1 2025 5.6% versus Q4 2025 13.6% versus Q1 2025 15.7% versus Q4 2025 9.3%

$38,605,350

Units Sold

27 Sales Volume

15.6% versus Q1 2025 versus Q4 2025 48.1% versus Q1 2025 28.9% versus Q4 2025

Q1 2026 Quarterly Market Breakdown

Did You Know? Point Pinos Lighthouse in Pacific Grove is the oldest continually operating lighthouse on the West Coast.

“Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020

Monterey & Del Rey Oaks

Quarter 1 of 2026 in Monterey saw 49 closed sales, which topped the previous year’s Q1 total of 45. The average sales price was down 6.9% year over year, as the top priced sale during the quarter came in under $2.5M, and an increased number of sales below $800K took place (35% of Q1’s transactions). As a result, the median sales price also fell below $1M for the first time over the last five quarters. The total sales volume for the quarter of $55.3M, just edged last year’s number. While the Carmel areas are seeing inventory down year-over-year, Monterey is showing solid inventory, with 59 homes on the market heading into Q2, after having 52 at the same time last year.

Average Selling Price $1,130,003

Average Days on Market

60

49 Sales Volume

Units Sold

8.9% versus Q1 2025 versus Q4 2025 22.2% versus Q4 2025 31.9% versus Q1 2025 1.4% versus Q1 2025 22.4% versus Q4 2025 17.8% versus Q1 2025 6.9% versus Q4 2025 12.4%

$55,370,165

Q1 2026 Quarterly Market Breakdown

“Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020 Did You Know?

Nearly a quarter million tons of sardines were processed on Cannery Row in 1945, the year John Steinbeck’s Cannery Row was published. Cannery Row was previously named Ocean View Avenue but was renamed to honor John Steinbeck’s well-known novel.