Developing Indicators of Climate Change Risk in the US Caribbean

Developing Indicators of Climate Change Risk in the U.S.

Caribbean

Tarsila Seara, NEFSC, Social Sciences Branch

Matt McPherson, SEFSC, Social Science Research Group

Why do we need community climate change indicators?

Climate change impacts species distribution and productivity of fishery resources.

Fishers and fishing communities will need to adapt to changes in the marine fishery ecosystems.

Include the U.S. Caribbean in National Community Climate Risk project.

https://www.seaaroundus.org/climate-change/climate-change-fisheries/

How concerned are you about climate change on a scale of 1 to 10?

Puerto Rico 2016/2018

Puerto Rico 2016/2018

Objectives of this Presentation

• Present indicators of climate change risk at the community level (Seara et al. 2022; Seara et al. in prep).

• Exemplify the use of these indicators using a NE fishing community (New Bedford MA).

• Explain steps needed to develop indicators –focusing on the biological vulnerability assessment.

• Discuss CFMC support for developing indicators.

Outline of the Presentation

• Community Climate Change Risk Indicators outputs and methods

• Climate VulnerabilityAssessment (biological) outputs and methods

• Next steps for U.S. Caribbean

Example: New Bedford MA

Atlantic sea scallops: • Temperature: 2.44 • Stock Size/Status: 1.8 • Ocean Acidification: 4

CVA Methods

Community indicators are developed using species level climate change vulnerability classification first developed by Hare et al. 2016.

Climate Vulnerability Assessment (CVA).

• NE Region: 82 species

• 12 Exposure Factors + 12 Sensitivity Attributes.

• Scored by species based on expert knowledge.

CVA Methods

Steps used in the Northeast Fisheries CVA:

Example: New Bedford MA

Atlantic sea scallops: • Temperature: 2.44 • Stock Size/Status: 1.8 • Ocean Acidification: 4

CCCRI Methods

Community Climate Change Risk Indicators

Where,

a=speciesclimatevulnerabilityscore(CVA)

b=%speciescontributiontototalvaluelandedby community

Example: New Bedford MA

Next Steps for the U.S. Caribbean

• Conduct Climate VulnerabilityAssessments (CVAs) at the species level using the Hare et al. methodology, i.e., using expert knowledge scoring for an agreed upon list of commercially, recreationally and ecologically important species.

• From current CCCRI national project, we can provide coordination, technical support and some funding to support this effort for the Caribbean.

• Work closely with SEFSC Caribbean Branch to plan and execute project.

• Support requested from council includes:

• Create list of species and experts for biological assessment.

• Assist with meeting organization (virtual).

• Communicate effort to different stakeholders.