Fact Sheet
States Pave the Way for ZET Adoption: Assessing the Impact of ACT and ACF Through 2030 By Jonah Kasdan and Jordan Steen August 2024
State-level regulations are one of the main drivers of zero-emission truck (ZET) adoption across the United States. As of May 2024, 11 states have adopted the Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) regulation, including California, which has also adopted the Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) regulation. These states comprise roughly 27 percent of the U.S. medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) market and 37 percent of national ZET deployments.¹
ACT and ACF at a Glance
This assessment projects the impact that ACT and ACF (together ACT/F) will have on ZET deployments in the states that have adopted these regulations to date through 2030. The results show that by 2030, ACT/F compliance will lead to the deployment of at least 461,000 ZETs in the 11 ACT/F states. A majority of these vehicles (or 66%) will be in the pickup, delivery, and straight truck classes, with Class 8 tractor demand starting to grow near 2030.
Key Findings and Observations
In addition, demand is concentrated geographically in key states with supportive state-level policies. These projections allow stakeholders to understand the market through the end of the decade and the need for focused infrastructure investment in key hubs, and to plan well in advance in areas with high anticipated Class 8 demand.
ACT is a supply-side regulation that requires original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to sell ZETs as an increasing percentage of their MHDV sales each year, with requirements varying by vehicle weight class and some use applications. ACF is a demand-side regulation that requires fleets to purchase ZETs, with the stringency of the purchasing requirements varying by fleet type and size.
The assessment projects that ACT/F will have a sizeable impact on ZET demand in the 11 ACT/F states (Figure 1); taken together, at least 461,000 Class 2b–8 ZETs will need to be deployed by 2030 to comply with the regulations, representing a nearly 2,500% increase in ZET deployments from 2023. The buildout of ZET charging and refueling infrastructure will need to be scaled up to meet this increase in demand, but as shown in CALSTART’s Phasing in U.S. Charging Infrastructure report, such a buildout can be affordably achieved by a strategically targeted and phased-in approach.
1 Please note that Zeroing in on ZETs: May 2024 Market Update does not include electric pickup trucks, while this assessment does include that vehicle segment.
CALSTART
Assessing the Impact of ACT and ACF Through 2030
calstart.org
1