Briefing Paper
States Pave the Way for ZET Adoption: Assessing the Impact of ACT and ACF Through 2030 By Jonah Kasdan and Jordan Steen August 2024
CALSTART’s Trucks and OffRoad Equipment Initiative works to keep goods and services moving while reducing air pollution and climate change, growing jobs, and increasing energy security. The Trucks Initiative uses four strategies to drive change: helping fleets reduce the risk and cost of purchasing the cleanest trucks and equipment; partnering with industry and public agencies to develop the next generation of heavy-duty near-zero and zero-emission technologies; validating the performance and business case of clean vehicles to support fleet acceptance; and working with industry partners to craft smart regulations, policies, and funding for near-zero and zeroemission trucks and equipment.
Executive Summary This assessment projects the impact that the Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) and Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) regulations (together ACT/F) will have on zero-emission truck (ZET) deployments¹ through 2030 in states that have adopted the regulations to date. As of May 2024, 11 states have adopted ACT, including California, which has also adopted ACF. These states comprise roughly 27 percent of the U.S. medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV)² market and 37 percent of national ZET deployments. The results show that by 2030, ACT/F compliance will lead to the deployment of at least 461,000 ZETs in the 11 ACT/F states (Figure ES-1). Roughly two-thirds of these vehicles (306,000) will be in the pickup, straight truck, and delivery classes, with Class 8 tractor demand starting to grow near 2030. In addition, demand is concentrated geographically in key states with supportive state-level policies. These projections allow stakeholders to understand the market through the end of the decade and the need for focused infrastructure investment in key hubs, and to plan well in advance in areas with high anticipated Class 8 demand.
1 This assessment also includes vans and buses, but the authors have used the term ZET for simplicity. See the appendix for the full definition of ZET applied in this report. ² Commercial trucks in the United States are classified according to their gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR). For this assessment, MHDVs refer to vehicles in Class 2b (GVWR 8,501–10,000 lbs.) through Class 8 (GVWR 33,000 lbs. and above).
CALSTART
Assessing the of ACT and ACF Through 2030 EPA Phase 3 Impact Rule Overview
calstart.org
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