Easing to go on despite faster inflation By Cai U. Ordinario
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US FACES PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY AS GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN BEGINS
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HE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) may see faster inflation in September, but local economists believe this is not enough reason to exit its easing cycle when the Monetary Board meets next week. On Wednesday, the BSP said it projects that September 2025 inflation will settle within the range of 1.5 to 2.3 percent. If the high end of the outlook is reached, this will be the second fastest inflation on record this year. The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) will release the lat-
est inflation print on October 7, ahead of the October 9 policy meeting at the BSP. “Upward price pressures for the month are likely to arise from higher prices of rice and fish. Elevated domestic fuel costs likewise contribute to upside price pressures for the month,” the BSP said. “These pressures could be partially offset by the decline in vegetables and meat prices along with lower electricity rates,” it added. Ateneo de Manila University economist Luis F. Dumlao told BusinessMirror on Wednesday that the inflation projection was still within the 2 to 4 percent inflation target of the BSP.
This means, Dumlao said, the BSP has “space to be dovish.” He said any reduction in policy rates will help support the country’s GDP growth. Dumlao said the country’s GDP growth is growing slower than its natural growth of around 6.2 percent. Reducing policy rates can help boost the country’s economic performance this year. “The only way they will raise interest is if they see inflationary pressure over 4 percent the next 6 months,” Dumlao told this newspaper. Should the BSP decide to reduce rates next week, Jonathan Ravelas, senior adviser at professional services firm Reyes Tacandong & Co., said the impact on the econo-
my could last for a year. Ravelas said the Monetary Board is expected to maintain policy rates in December, unless there is another reduction in United States Federal Reserve rate cuts. He also does not see any off cycles and increases in policy rates any time soon. However, former Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Dante B. Canlas said that if there is a surge in inflation in September due to the recent typhoons, there is a chance for an off cycle. “The MB [Monetary Board] may still stick to its announced plan to cut interest rates. The GDP growth is at risk; ADB [Asian Development See “Easing,” A2
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Thursday, October 2, 2025 Vol. 20 No. 354
P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 24 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK
CEBU AFTER 6.9-MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE A magnitude 6.9 earthquake struck Cebu late Tuesday, killing at least 31 people and injuring dozens. The powerful tremor toppled homes, triggered landslides, damaged roads, and left northern towns without power. In Bogo City, a McDonald’s outlet sustained major structural damage, while the historic Archdiocesan Shrine of Santa Rosa de Lima in Daanbantayan—a stone church completed in 1886—partially collapsed and has been cordoned off for inspection. Rescue operations continue, with the Philippine Red Cross deploying teams to treat the injured and assist survivors. PHILIPPINE RED CROSS; RUFINO ALUB, VINCE SYLVAN A. TORING AND JACQUELINE HERNANDEZ VIA AP
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By Andrea E. San Juan @andreasanjuan
HE Philippine manufacturing sector has slipped into “negative territory” for the first time since March as goods producers saw fresh drops in output and new orders, according to the S&P Global Market Intelligence. The country’s Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) score plunged to 49.9 in September from 50.8 in August. The country’s PMI score in September was the lowest since the 49.4 PMI score in March. “While signaling just a fractional deterioration in the health of the manufacturing sector, this was only the third time in just over four years where the headline index has
been in contraction territory,” S&P Global said. S&P Global said “weaker operating conditions” were mainly attributed to a “renewed” drop in order intakes in September. It also noted that the decline in sales was the first in six months, as surveyed businesses noted lower customer numbers. See “Fewer,” A10
TARIFF IMPACT ON EXPORTS COULD DERAIL GROWTH: IMF
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IGHER tariffs that could undermine the country’s export earnings and investment growth will prevent the Philippines from attaining its growth targets until next year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In a briefing in Manila on Wednesday, IMF Mission Chief for the Philippines Elif Arbatli Saxegaard told reporters that the Washington-based lender projects GDP to average 5.4 percent in 2025 and 5.7 percent in 2026. The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC)
GDP target is at 5.5 to 6.5 percent in 2025 and 6 to 7 percent in the 2026 to 2028 period. “Risks to the growth outlook are tilted to the downside. The main external risks stem from prolonged global trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and disruptive financial market corrections,” Saxegaard said. “On the domestic front, more frequent and intense climate shocks would cause notable macroeconomic losses.” Saxegaard also said these new projections emanating from the completion of IMF’s 2025 Article IV Consultation with the See “Tariff,” A2
Govt agencies urged to use ₧8-B QRF for calamity relief By Reine Juvierre S. Alberto
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TOTAL of P8.008 billion in calamity funds may be accessed by government agencies to provide relief and rehabilitation in light of the 6.9-magnitude earthquake that hit Cebu on Tuesday night, according to the Department of Budget and Management. In a statement on Wednesday, Budget Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman urged government agencies to activate their Quick Response Funds (QRF). This comes after the directive of President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. to ensure immediate relief and rehabilitation for communities af-
fected by the earthquake, which claimed at least 20 lives, injured dozens, damaged heritage churches and other structures and disrupted power in several parts of the Visayas. Related stories on the Cebu earthquake in Nation and Economy pages. The QRF is an emergency standby fund lodged under the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Fund (NDRRMF), also known as the calamity fund. It enables frontline agencies to immediately provide assistance to areas stricken by disasters and emergencies. Government agencies with builtin QRFs include the Departments See “Govt,” A10
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 58.1490 n JAPAN 0.3933 n UK 78.2162 n HK 7.4720 n CHINA 8.1649 n SINGAPORE 45.1117 n AUSTRALIA 38.4307 n EU 68.2553 n KOREA 0.0414 n SAUDI ARABIA 15.5060 Source: BSP (October 1, 2025)