Base effects to cause faster inflation by mid-’26 By Reine Juvierre S. Alberto @reine_alberto
I
WORLD » A6
US PLAN FOR GAZA STRIP WON UN BACKING; CARRYING IT OUT COULD BE FAR MORE DIFFICULT
ROTARY CLUB OF MANILA JOURNALISM AWARDS
2006 National Newspaper of the Year 2011 National Newspaper of the Year 2013 Business Newspaper of the Year 2017 Business Newspaper of the Year 2019 Business Newspaper of the Year 2021 Pro Patria Award PHILIPPINE STATISTICS AUTHORITY 2018 Data Champion
NFLATION could climb to the upper end of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) target by mid-2026, driven by base effects and potential increases in global commodity prices, according to Metrobank. During the bank’s 2025 Market Movers briefing, Metrobank Chief Economist and Market Strategist Nicholas T. Mapa said consumer price index gains are expected to accelerate in 2026 and approach the 4-percent target ceiling of the BSP by mid-year. “This upward pressure will be driven mainly by base effects
on top of potential increases in global commodity prices, possibly fanned by US-imposed tariffs,” Mapa said. Still, Mapa said the average fullyear inflation is still likely to stay within the BSP’s target range. Despite the expected pickup in inflation, Mapa said the BSP is still poised to begin easing as early as December this year, with the Monetary Board maintaining a dovish stance through 2026. The Monetary Board has delivered a total of 175-basis-points rate cut from a high of 6.50 percent after its fifth policy meeting this year, last October 9, bringing the benchmark interest rate to 4.75 percent.
“With the price stability mandate still within reach, BSP will likely stay focused on supporting sagging growth momentum,” Mapa said. The anticipated rate cuts will feed directly into the bond market, with the Philippine yield curve expected to steepen next year. Mapa said the lower borrowing costs should keep the short end anchored, while long-term yields may drift higher as the government increases borrowing in the 10-year tenor and as inflation gradually rises. Expectations of further monetary easing would also reinforce downward pressure on short-term yields.
In terms of the peso, a weak local currency may continue next year as the US Federal Reserve continues its own easing cycle. Mapa said the peso is still likely to face sustained pressure as structural factors, including projected current account deficits in 2026 and 2027, could weigh on the currency even as global conditions turn more supportive. While the temporary “fiscal freeze” could slow the economy in the short term, Mapa said growth should rebound next year as capital formation and investments recover, aided by the resumption of public construction and the lagged boost from monetary easing.
BusinessMirror A broader look at today’s business
EJAP JOURNALISM AWARDS
BUSINESS NEWS SOURCE OF THE YEAR
(2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021) DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
2018 BANTOG MEDIA AWARDS
BIZ GROUPS SEE RELIEF IN FARM TARIFF LIFTING www.businessmirror.com.ph
P
n
Thursday, November 20, 2025 Vol. 21 No. 43
P25.00 nationwide | 3 sections 24 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK
By Andrea E. San Juan @andreasanjuan
HILIPPINE business groups said Washington’s lifting of tariffs on key agricultural products will provide “much-needed” relief to Filipino exporters and farmers, as this is seen to improve demand and stabilize prices of local products. “The exemptions will provide much-needed relief to exporters, help safeguard jobs, and strengthen the competitiveness of Philippine products in one of our most
important markets,” Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) President Enunina Mangio said in a statement on See “Farm tariff,” A2
TAP WORKING-AGE GROUP FOR ‘NEW GROWTH DRIVERS’: CHUA
T
HE Philippines should utilize its large workingage population in beefing up “new growth drivers”—the manufacturing, technology and productivity, and tourism sectors—instead of relying on the business process outsourcing (BPO) sector and remittances which are growing at a slow pace, according to former Socioeconomic Planning secretary Karl Chua. Chua, now the Managing Director for Data Science and Artificial Intelligence at Ayala Corporation, said, “For 25 years,
we have relied on BPO and remittance to fuel growth, and because of its massive size, P4.5 trillion as of last year, it really fuels a lot of growth but we cannot rely on that because remittance and BPO are growing at no more than 5 percent.” Chua spoke at the Beyond the Numbers: Year-End Review and 2026 Outlook forum organized by the Makati Business Club (MBC) on Wednesday. The former chief economist of the country said the Philippines should use its demographic See “Chua,” A2
PEELING BACK TARIFFS A banana vendor arranges his produce while a coconut seller selects coconuts at a public market in Las Piñas City, amid recent US tariff exemptions for the Philippines. The additional exemptions under Trump’s 19-percent reciprocal tariff cover selected agricultural exports such as coconuts, bananas, processed pineapples, and mangoes, affecting trade flows and export opportunities. Government reports indicate that these exemptions could represent over $ 1 billion in export value for Philippine farm products. However, several key sectors—including rice, corn, sugar, poultry, and fisheries—remain outside the concessions. NONIE REYES
Groups cheer, but wary of US tariff move By Ada Pelonia
CREEK CLEANUP TO CURB FLOODING MMDA Chairman Atty. Don Artes and
Mandaluyong City Mayor Menchie Abalos inspect ongoing cleanup operations at Buhangin Creek in Mandaluyong City on Wednesday, November 19, 2025. The activity involves clearing garbage and silt from the waterway as part of continued efforts to reduce flooding in Metro Manila, following weeks of heavy rainfall and recurring flood incidents that have prompted stronger calls for improved easement enforcement and better solid-waste management. NONOY LACZA
W
@adapelonia
ASHINGTON’S decision to exempt certain agricultural products from the reciprocal tariffs amid cost pressure in the United States will whet their appetite for local
produce and hike the Philippines’s domestic farm output, according to agriculture groups. This, after US President Donald Trump further modified the scope of the reciprocal tariffs, allowing certain farm goods to enter their country tariff-free, particularly those not locally produced in the
US. This includes bananas, coffee, tea, and coconuts, among others. The Philippine Chamber of Agriculture and Food Inc. (PCAFI) said the move bodes well for the country’s farm sector, which was previously levied a 19-percent tariff rate. “This is good news for us since our export products to the US
will be more competitive,” PCAFI President Danilo Fausto told the BusinessMirror on Wednesday. “We can anticipate increased demand, which will boost our local production.” While the US government’s move could buoy domestic confidence, See “US tariff,” A2
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 58.9750 n JAPAN 0.3793 n UK 77.5521 n HK 7.5760 n CHINA 8.2977 n SINGAPORE 45.3096 n AUSTRALIA 38.3691 n EU 68.3107 n KOREA 0.0404 n SAUDI ARABIA 15.7267 Source: BSP (November 19, 2025)