PHL economy to play catch-up: Moody’s Analytics
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HE Philippine economy is expected to play catch-up this year given the country’s first quarter GDP performance, according to Moody’s Analytics. In an economic brief, Moody’s Analytics said the economy’s 5.7 percent growth was a “decent trot” in the first three months of the year and is well within its 6 to 7 percent full-year growth target. Moody’s Analytics also expects the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to maintain key policy rates at 6.5 percent this week, but resolve to cut rates next quarter. “The economy will play catchup in 2024 from its deep pandemic downturn. Bangko Sentral ng
Pilipinas will likely stand pat on rates this month,” Moody’s Analytics said. “And while the inflation print for April settled within BSP’s 2 to 4 percent target range, it will likely bump around the upper limit over the next few months as dry weather hits food harvests. At the earliest, rate cuts could begin next quarter, which would ease the pressure on households,” it explained. In the brief, Moody’s Analytics said the economy benefited from gains in January and February which were enough to compensate for the sharp rise in inflation in March. The think tank also said “trade
was the star” of the country’s economic performance in the first quarter of 2024. Net exports turned positive given the faster rise in exports than imports. Goods and service exports buoyed the country’s trade performance while tourist arrivals also continued to grow, recovering 72 percent of the prepandemic levels. Moody’s Analytics also said labor market growth remained robust while remittances were able to buoy household consumption despite the slowdown to 4.6 percent. “High borrowing costs have weighed on household budgets and private investment growth,”
Moody’s Analytics stressed. “Government spending—always a wildcard in the Philippines—rose 1.7 percent reversing from a 1 percent drop in the prior quarter, largely due to officials’ front-loading expenditures,” it added. Moody’s Analytics also cited the contribution of the construction sector while mining and quarrying continued its decline for the fifth straight quarter. Services remained the largest contributor to GDP -- 62 percent— and got a significant boost from accommodation and food services in the first three months of the year. Cai U. Ordinario
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Tuesday, May 14, 2024 Vol. 19 No. 210
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‘RTL AMENDMENT SPELLS n
BIGGER DEBT, DEFICIT’ By Cai U. Ordinario
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MENDING the Rice Trade Liberalization (RTL) law could cause the government to incur more debts and prevent it from reducing the budget deficit, according to local economists. They aired their views as Speaker Ferdinand Martin G. Romualdez said the House of Representatives is committed to intensify efforts to expedite plenary debates and attain the approval of the bill to amend the RTL on second reading by Wednesday. (See: https://businessmirror . com.ph/2024/05/13/house-racingto-amend-rtl-to-cut-rice-prices/). However, some economists believe that geopolitics which encouraged trade protectionism through the imposition of embargoes necessitated a shift in the country’s rice policy. “The risk [of amending the RTL] is to create enormous liability for the government, or enlarge the government budget deficit, when NFA [National Food Authority] tries to control the market price. This is based on pre-RTL historical precedent,” Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) Senior Research Fellow Rhoelano Briones told BusinessMirror. See “RTL,” A2
SUMMER DELIGHT Amidst the sweltering summer heat, the sudden downpour on Monday (May 13, 2024) afternoon brings a delightful respite for children in Parola, Cainta, Rizal. BERNARD TESTA
MALLS THAT DON’T INNOVATE Court junks 12-yr-old libel RISK EXTINCTION–COLLIERS case vs BM’s publisher
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F malls do not innovate and make their spaces attractive for future retailers, they “risk extinction,” according to the latest report from Colliers. In a Flash Report, Colliers said the country’s first quarter economic performance indicates that the Philippine economy is primed for growth. This was despite the slowdown in household consumption to 4.6 percent, the slowest in 14 years, discounting the pandemic years. (See: https://businessmirror. com.ph/2024/05/10/spending-cutbacks-to-continue-say-experts/). “Mall developers and retailers need to ramp up space renovation
and innovation to quell extinction,” Colliers said in a brief. “Retailers should consider locking in spaces in business districts that continue to record strong office and residential leasing activities,” it added. Colliers said, however, that many malls are undergoing renovation and are upgrading their retail spaces to attract more consumers. “Philippine and foreign brands continue to occupy mall space, with some retailers even making a comeback to the Manila retail landscape by locating both in stand-alone malls and transit-oriented shopping centers,” Colliers said. Continued on A5
By Joel R. San Juan @jrsanjuan1573
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HE Regional Trial Court (RTC) of Quezon City has dismissed the three counts of libel cases filed against BusinessMirror publisher T. Anthony C. Cabangon by businessman Reghis Romero II over a series of columns published in the newspaper 12 years ago. In a 22-page ruling issued by QC RTC Branch 87 Presiding Judge Louie Brian Sze, the trial court held that the prosecution failed to present evidence to prove Cabangon’s guilt for the crime of
libel under Article 353 of the Revised Penal Code. The provision mandates the prosecution to prove the presence of four elements of libel—(1) the allegation of a crime; (2) the publication of the charge; (3) identity of the person defamed; and (4) existence of malice—in order to secure a conviction. In this case, the trial court held that the prosecution failed to establish the presence of the first and fourth elements. “Upon careful consideration of the testimonies of the witnesses, the admitted documentary See “Court,” A2
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 57.3200 n JAPAN 0.3682 n UK 71.7876 n HK 7.3355 n CHINA 7.9314 n SINGAPORE 42.3276 n AUSTRALIA 37.8369 n EU 61.7623 n KOREA 0.0418 n SAUDI ARABIA 15.2837 Source: BSP (May 13, 2024)