Report: SE Asia highly vulnerable to oil shock
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SIA-PACIFIC remains the “most exposed region” to energy shocks arising from tensions in the Middle East and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with Southeast Asian economies including the Philippines particularly vulnerable because of their dependence on imported fuel. In its latest Global Macro Outlook, Moody’s Ratings said many economies in the region rely heavily on imported oil and natural gas and host energy-intensive industries, increasing their exposure to supply disruptions and higher energy prices.
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“South and Southeast Asia remain highly vulnerable due to thinner buffers and greater sensitivity to imported energy costs. Vietnam [Ba2 positive], Thailand, the Philippines [Baa2 stable], Bangladesh [B2 negative], Pakistan and Sri Lanka [Caa1 stable] have either begun energy rationing and/or implemented austerity measures, while oil producers like Indonesia and Malaysia have relied on subsidies to cushion the shock thus far,” the credit rater stated. Moody’s also noted that the Philippines has around 24 days of crude oil inventory cover as of
February, lower than several larger economies across the world, increasing its exposure to prolonged supply disruptions. The report said countries across Asia are diversifying suppliers and drawing down reserves as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained. However, refinery configurations and shipping logistics complicate the shift because many Asian refineries are designed for medium-to-heavy crude from the Middle East. “Even so, heightened energy insecurity is likely to result in some degree of rationing and delayed
investment decisions, weighing on activity,” it added. Against this backdrop, Moody’s expects Brent crude oil prices to remain between $90 and $110 per barrel through much of 2026 as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue and oil supply normalization remains limited. Moody’s said prolonged energy disruptions could keep inflation elevated and increase costs for sectors such as shipping, logistics and aviation, while rising fertilizer and petrochemical prices could add pressure to industries globally. See “Oil shock,” A14
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‘UPHILL CLIMB TO REACH POVERTY GOAL BY 2028’ www.businessmirror.com.ph
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Wednesday, May 13, 2026 Vol. 21 No. 211
P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 22 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK
By Justine Xyrah Garcia
FTER three straight years of missing growth targets under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., economists said the government is now facing steeper odds of meeting its poverty reduction goals by 2028. The concern deepened after the Philippine economy expanded by a weaker-than-expected 2.8 percent in the first quarter of 2026, raising the risk that the administration could again fall short of its full-year growth target of 5 to 6 percent and limiting its ability to generate jobs and incomes needed to reduce poverty. Reducing poverty remains one of the administration’s key social commitments, with Marcos aiming to bring the poverty rate down to 9 percent—or roughly 11 million Filipinos—and eliminate hunger before the end of his term.
However, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Dante Canlas said achieving a single-digit poverty rate may no longer be possible if the conflict in the Middle East drags on and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. The latest available data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed the country’s poverty incidence eased to 15.5 percent in 2023 from 18.1 percent in 2021, with the number of poor Filipinos declining to 17.54 million from nearly 20 million. Canlas warned that the sharp See “Poverty,” A2
PALACE UPBEAT ABOUT TIMELY PASSAGE OF 21 PRIORITY BILLS By Samuel P. Medenilla
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ALACAÑANG is confident of the timely passage of the 21 priority bills of the Marcos administration despite the recent change in the leadership of the Senate and the ongoing impeachment proceedings against Vice President Sara Duterte. Last Monday, Senator Alan Peter S. Cayetano replaced Senator Vicente C. Sotto III as Senate President as the majority of the House of Representatives voted to transmit the articles of impeachment of Vice President
FUEL PRESSURE Tugboats guide a container ship into the Manila International Container Terminal in Manila as global shipping faces mounting pressure from soaring bunker fuel prices triggered by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption has squeezed supplies of the heavy fuel that powers most cargo vessels, sending costs sharply higher in Asia and threatening supply chains across import-dependent economies like the Philippines, where higher shipping and fuel costs could eventually affect prices of imported goods, food, raw materials, and consumer products. Industry players are now slowing voyages, revising schedules, and exploring alternative fuels as Singapore—the world’s largest bunker fuel hub—faces tightening supplies and surging prices. AP/AARON FAVILA
Sara Duterte to the Upper House of Congress. She said they expect the Senate, under the leadership of Cayetano, will continue to push for the passage of the said bills, which will benefit the public. “If we have 21 priority bills, which was discussed in the LEDAC [Legislative-Executive Development Advisory Council] under the leadership of Senate President Tito Sotto, then there should be no change [in the timeline for their passage] because it is for the people,” Palace Press Officer Claire Castro said
Bank loans, M3 growth seen easing By Andrea E. San Juan
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HILIPPINE economy remains sluggish despite the earlier rate cuts made by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) which propelled money supply and borrowing activity in March. Looking ahead, analysts said there may be some moderation in both lending and domestic liquidity growth as elevated inflation, tighter monetary policy and global risks temper borrowing appetite and liquidity expansion.
See “Palace,” A2
Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist of the Union Bank of the Philippines (UBP) explained to the BusinessMirror the “disconnect” between stronger financial indicators and modest first-quarter growth. “Liquidity was available and credit was flowing, but spending, investment, and confidence were slower to respond,” Asuncion told this newspaper on Tuesday. This, despite the double-digit growth rates seen in the domestic liquidity or the amount of money circulating in the economy and the loans
extended by universal and commercial banks. Preliminary data from the BSP showed that the amount of money circulating in the economy (M3) expanded by 12 percent to P20.4 trillion in March. Historical data from the central bank revealed that this is the fastest growth in domestic liquidity since September 2020, when M3 growth was at 12.2 percent. Meanwhile, loans from universal and commercial banks grew by 10.7 percent to P14.6 trillion in March. Data from the BSP indicated
this was the fastest growth of bank lending in seven months or since August 2025. Despite the faster expansion in liquidity and credit, Asuncion explained why the economy still weakened in the first three months of the year. “Because ample liquidity and faster credit growth do not translate into stronger output immediately,” he told this paper. “Demand-side transmission stayed weak as households and firms remained cautious amid still-elevated inflation early in the quarter, See “Growth,” A2
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 60.9670 n JAPAN 0.3881 n UK 82.9822 n HK 7.7886 n CHINA 8.9706 n SINGAPORE 48.0736 n AUSTRALIA 44.1950 n EU 71.8557 n KOREA 0.0413 n SAUDI ARABIA 16.2505 Source: BSP (May 12, 2026) TEAM GENERAL CLASSIFICATION TOP 3
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