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Saturday, May 9, 2026 Vol. 21 No. 207
ASEAN SUMMIT BUILDS CRISIS-READY REGION S
P25.00 nationwide | 12 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK
Oil aid to be set off if reserves fall below 80%–Asean summit
FROM left: Myanmar Ministry of Foreign Affairs Permanent Secretary Hau Khan Sum; Malaysia’s First Lady Wan Azizah Wan Ismail; Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim; Thailand prime minister’s wife Thananon Niramit; Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul; East Timor Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão; Vietnam Prime Minister Le Minh Hung; Philippine First Lady Maria Louise Marcos; Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.; Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong and his wife Loo Tze Lui; Brunei Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah and his son Prince Abdul Mateen; Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto; Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and his wife Pich Chanmony; and Lao Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone pose for a group photo during the opening ceremony of the 48th Asean Summit and Related Meetings in Cebu, Philippines, on Friday, May 8, 2026. AP/AARON FAVILA, POOL
By Malou TalosigBartolome
OUTHEAST Asian leaders moved Fri‑ day to shield the region from energy supply shocks triggered by the Middle East conflict. The 11 leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) pressed for the swift ratification and operationalization of the updated Asean Petroleum Security Agreement (Apsa), designed to assist any member state whose oil reserves fall below 80 percent. Meeting at the 48th Asean Summit in Cebu, the bloc agreed to activate the frame‑ work “on a voluntary and commercial basis” to bolster preparedness and reduce expo‑ sure to supply disruptions. Apsa, a 40‑year‑old pact first signed in Manila in 1986, has never been invoked. It expired in December 2025, but three months earlier energy ministers agreed to amend the instrument to expand coverage to natural gas, reflecting Asean’s rising dependence on LNG. Under Asean practice, each state must complete domestic approval before the up‑ date takes legal effect. As part of its priority action plans, de‑ tailed in a standalone joint statement, Asean leaders urged “the expeditious completion of national processes towards ratification of Apsa to ensure its earliest possible entry into force and take steps to operationalize the Apsa.” The leaders also called on the region to brace for worst‑case scenarios by estab‑ lishing emergency coordination mecha‑ nisms and strengthening information‑shar‑ ing systems that could minimize exposure to supply disruptions.
Emergency rulebook By Samuel P. Medenilla & Carmel Pedroza
P
RESIDENT Ferdinand Marcos Jr. pushed for a crisis-ready Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) during the concluded 48th Summit of the regional bloc in Cebu with proactive mechanisms on energy, food, trade, maritime security and migrant worker protection as it continues to reel from the economic impact of the Middle East conflict.
The chief executive also said there was a tacit agreement among Asean members during the summit to do more to help resolve the ongoing civil war in Myanmar. Briefing journalists at the summit’s International Media Center, Marcos said Asean must respond collectively to mounting global uncertainties, including rising oil prices linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict. “The global landscape has rarely been more complex or more consequential,” Marcos said, noting that escalating fuel costs have increased prices of basic goods across the region and placed Asean nationals abroad at greater risk.
The Philippine President said the summit focused on three urgent and interconnected priorities: regional energy security, food security, and the safety of Asean nationals overseas. On energy security, Asean leaders agreed to strengthen regional energy supply chains, accelerate renewable energy development, and reduce dependence on volatile external markets. Marcos highlighted two major initiatives discussed during the summit— the expedited ratification of the Asean Framework Agreement on Petroleum Security (Apsa) and the operationalization of the Asean Power Grid. Continued on A2
APSA functions as Asean’s standby mecha‑ nism for both shortages and oversupply. A “shortage” is declared when a mem‑ ber’s petroleum supply drops below 80 per‑ cent of normal consumption. Exporting members, after meeting domestic and contractual needs, are expect‑ ed to provide up to 10 percent more of their entitled supply to the distressed country. Energy ministers have three weeks to decide on activation once a distress notice is filed.
Crisis backdrop
THE push comes amid escalating geopo‑ litical tensions in the US-Israeli war against Iran.
FX intervention, external payments D behind 15-mo foreign reserves low
T
OREIGN exchange intervention to smooth peso volatility alongside routine external payments brought the country’s foreign reserves, or the buffer against external shocks, to its lowest in 15 months, economists said. Experts concurred that the drawdown in the country’s foreign reserves reflects “active” foreign exchange operations by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to smooth excessive volatility of the Philippine peso after the local currency plunged to new record lows in April 2026. This, they pointed out, after preliminary data from the central bank showed that the Gross International Reserves (GIR) settled at US$104.1 billion in April 2026. This is the lowest in 15 months or since January 2025. The latest figure is also 2.38 percent lower than the $106.64 billion recorded in end-March 2026. Year-on-year, the GIR fell by 1.15 percent from the $105.31 billion in
By Andrea E. San Juan
F
HE Philippine economy may be headed for a rougher year than previously expected as prolonged geopolitical tensions, stubborn inflation, and weakening domestic demand begin to weigh more heavily on growth. BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, slashed its 2026 Philippine growth forecast to 4.2 percent from 4.7 percent after the economy expanded by just 2.8 percent in the first quarter—the weakest pace since the pandemic recovery period in 2021 and well below the government’s 5 to 6 percent target. “The weak Q1 print, coupled with mounting spillover effects from the US-Iran conflict, has prompted us to revise down our 2026 growth forecast,” BMI said in a report on Friday. The research firm’s latest outlook showed that nearly all major growth drivers are expected to remain under pressure this year. Continued on A2
“Bottom line: the BSP is using its reserves as intended, the external position remains sound, and this move reflects prudent management amid global uncertainty, not a weakening of fundamentals.” —Jonathan L. Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co.
end-April 2025. Union Bank of the Philippines’ (UBP) chief economist Ruben Carlo Asuncion said: “The sharp decline in the foreign exchange component of the GIR in April likely reflects active BSP foreign exchange operations amid heightened peso pressure and a strong US dollar environment.” Similarly, Jonathan L. Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong
& Co., said the drop in the GIR to a 15-month low is “largely the result of active policy, not stress.” Broken down, BSP data showed the foreign exchange component dragged down the country’s foreign reserves in April by 73.37 percent to $464.9 million from the $1.746 billion in March. Foreign investments also plunged to $79.198 billion from the $80.09 billion in March while gold also declined by nearly 2 percent to $19.78 billion from the $20.18 billion in the previous month. Asked why a huge chunk of foreign exchange holdings was used up, Ravelas said the central bank likely sold dollars to smooth excessive peso volatility. Asuncion explained that when the peso experiences excessive volatility, “The BSP may deploy part of its FX reserves to smooth sharp market movements—not to defend a specific exchange rate, but to maintain orderly conditions.” Continued on A2
Leaders voiced “serious concern” over the Middle East crisis, warning of threats to civilians and global stability. While welcom‑ ing the ceasefire between the United States and Iran brokered by Pakistan, they urged restraint to ensure its full implementation. Beyond Apsa, Asean mapped out long-term resilience measures: diversify‑ ing supply, advancing clean and renewable energy, promoting biofuel blending, and exploring civilian nuclear power under inter‑ national safety standards. Cross-border projects—the Asean Power Grid and Trans-Asean Gas Pipeline— were also highlighted as strategic priorities.
Maritime security, trade
WITH the Strait of Hormuz at risk, leaders reaffirmed the need to guarantee safe and continuous passage of vessels and aircraft under the 1982 Unclos. To safeguard food chains, Asean will tap the Asean Plus Three Emergency Rice Reserve (Apterr) to reinforce supply during crises.
Humanitarian dimension
ACKNOWLEDGING the human toll, leaders committed to stronger consular cooperation and information-sharing to protect Asean nationals in conflict zones. Ministers of Energy, Economy, and Foreign Affairs were tasked to monitor de‑ velopments and fast-track implementation within the year. The leaders stressed the need for a “whole-of-Asean Community approach”— a buzzword that entails all pillars of society from political-security to economic, and socio-cultural as the bloc confronts a vola‑ tile multipolar environment.
Rate hike should remain priority despite slow growth–analysts
BMI cuts PHL growth forecast to 4.2% as Q1 data disappoints By Justine Xyrah Garcia
EAST Timor’s Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao, Vietnam’s Prime Minister Le Minh Hung, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong hold hands for a group photo during the opening ceremony of the 48th Asean Summit and Related Meetings in Cebu, May 8, 2026. AP/AARON FAVILA, POOL
ESPITE slow growth, the central bank should prioritize raising the key interest rate to address the “spillover” effects of higher fuel and food prices, analysts said. “In terms of monetary policy, we continue to expect the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to continue its tightening cycle despite growth falling well below potential,” HSBC Global Investment Research Senior Asean Economist Aris D. Dacanay said in a commentary on Friday. “This is because of the principle of who can best do what,” added Dacanay. The HSBC Senior Asean Economist explained that growth has weakened due to weak government spending after the alleged anomalies in flood control projects broke out. “Hence, the best way to bring growth back up is for government spending to go back up,” Dacanay said, asserting that keeping monetary policy accommodative will be a “less effective tool.” “What the BSP can best address is stemming the spillover effects of higher fuel and food prices by signaling its commitment to do all that it takes to keep inflation expectations anchored,” he underscored.
“What the BSP can best address is stemming the spillover effects of higher fuel and food prices by signaling its commitment to do all that it takes to keep inflation expectations anchored.” —HSBC Global Investment Research Senior Asean Economist Aris D. Dacanay
Dacanay emphasized this especially as the spillover effects of oil “have crept in quicker than initially expected.” Despite slow growth, he noted: “We think an outsize 50bp rate hike is still on the table for the BSP in June if oil prices remain at or above $100 a barrel by that time.” Another alternative is for the central bank to “smoothen” its tightening cycle by opting to do an off-cycle quarter point rate hike before the rate-setting meeting in June. Continued on A2 TEAM GENERAL CLASSIFICATION TOP 3
STAGE 9 May 8, 2026 (Friday)
ROAD RACE | MASS START
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8 Ryan Tugawin — EXN — +0:00:23 9 Aidan James Mendoza — G4G — “ 10 Antoine Huby — 7RP — “
STAGE 9 INDIVIDUAL CLASSIFICATION TOP FINISHERS:
1 Guld
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