BSP projects April inflation at 5.6% to 6.4% T
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US BLOCKADE TIGHTENS ON IRAN’S OIL EXPORTS, THREATENING PRODUCTION CUTS WITHIN WEEKS
HE country’s April inflation print could hit the highest in three years as the increase in the prices of fuel and key food items such as rice, fish, meat, alongside electricity charges has “intensified.” In a statement on Thursday, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said it projects April 2026 inflation to be within the range of 5.6 to 6.4 percent. “Inflation risks have intensified amid upward price pressures from significantly higher domestic petroleum prices, rising prices of key food items such as rice, fish, and meat, increased electricity charg-
IN this photo released by Tasnim News Agency, Revolutionary Guard Navy (IRGC) armed men climb aboard the cargo ship MSC Francesca during what state media described as the seizure of one of two vessels accused of violations in the Strait of Hormuz, April 21, 2026. MEYSAM MIRZADEH/TASNIM NEWS AGENCY VIA AP
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es, and the peso depreciation,” the central bank said. “The anticipated decline in vegetable and fruit prices may help temper inflation, but sources of upside price pressures continue to warrant close monitoring,” it also noted. Historical data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that Consumer Price Index (CPI), the measurement of the country’s headline inflation, was last seen settling within the 5.6 to 6.4 percent three years ago or in 2023. In particular, should the country’s inflation print hit 5.6 per-
cent in April, the lower end of the central bank’s forecast range, this could be the highest recorded in 31 months or since September 2023 when headline inflation stood at 6.1 percent. But if inflation stubbornly accelerates to 6.4 percent, the ceiling of BSP’s month-ahead inflation forecast range, it could hit the highest in three years or since April 2023 as inflation three years back was seen at 6.6 percent. Looking ahead, the central bank said it “will remain vigilant and guided by incoming data, specifically on inflation and growth prospects.”
“We will continue to monitor recent developments in the Middle East for their implications on inflation and economic activity,” the BSP underscored. Earlier this week, HSBC Senior Asean Economist Aris D. Dacanay told reporters that higher prices of food are seen to drive the country’s headline inflation to a peak of 8.1 percent in the fourth quarter of this year on the assumption that the conflict in the Middle East would persist beyond May. Dacanay emphasized that the Philippines may not be the most vulnerable country when it comes See “Inflation,” A5
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HIGHER Q1 IMPORT BILL WIDENS TRADE DEFICIT www.businessmirror.com.ph
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HE country’s import bill rose by 8.9 percent year-on-year and continued to exceed export receipts, widening the trade deficit in the first quarter. Latest data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that the trade gap reached $12.8 billion in January to March, surpassing the $12.46 billion recorded in 2024 and $11.26 billion in 2023. Imports amounted to $35.5 bil-
lion during the period, while export receipts reached $22.7 billion. This imbalance remained evident in March alone, when imports stood at $12.68 billion, exceeding the $8.17-billion export receipts, which resulted in a See “Trade,” A2
BRENT CRUDE TOPS $125 PER BARREL ON IRAN WAR WORRIES
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ONG KONG—The price of Brent crude oil surged past $125 a barrel early Thursday as stalled US-Iran talks raised doubts over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a permanent end to the Iran war. Brent crude to be delivered in June jumped 6.2 percent to $125.36 and Brent to be delivered in July rose 3.1 percent to $113.85. Benchmark US crude climbed 2.3 percent to $109.38 per barrel. Before the start of the war in late February, Brent crude was trading around $70 per barrel. The Iran war, which is in its ninth week, still sees no clear path to an end. The US has continued its blockade of Iranian ports while the Strait of Hormuz, is closed, pushing oil prices higher. Reports Thursday suggesting an possible escalation by US President Donald Trump doused hopes for a quick end to the conflict.
STAGE 2 April 30, 2026
TEAM TIME TRIAL
“The breakdown of talks between the US and Iran, along with President Trump reportedly rejecting Iran’s proposal for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, has the market losing hope for any quick resumption in oil flows,” ING Bank strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a research note. Oil prices vary depending on the type of crude oil, where it is being traded and under what terms, for futures contracts. By some measures, Brent has hit its highest level since its peak of $147.50 per barrel in 2008 during the global financial crisis. With the war rattling world markets, the US dollar surged to 160.51 Japanese yen, its highest level in nearly two years. It closed at 160.44 yen on Wednesday. The dollar has gained against other major currencies partly due to its status as a haven for See “Crude,” A2
1 Seoul Cycling Team (SCT)
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BRUSH WITH RESISTANCE A mural artist applies finishing touches to “Pandaigdigang Pakikibaka, Dudurog sa Imperyalista” during an open house in Quezon City on Thursday, April 30, 2026. The
piece depicts workers’ resistance against imperialism, state violence, and economic hardship, echoing mounting labor concerns in the Philippines—from calls for wage hikes and job security to protests over rising living costs ahead of Labor Day. NONOY LACZA
DepDev: Wage boards to handle pay hike By Justine Xyrah Garcia
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MID renewed calls for an across-the-board minimum wage increase during the ongoing oil crisis, the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DepDev) maintained its position that any adjustment should still be coursed through regional wage boards. “Our position has always been that wages have to be determined
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at the local level because there are regional wage boards,” Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan told reporters in an interview. Balisacan noted that existing law already mandates regional wagesetting and stressed there is “a very good economic reason for that.” Under Republic Act 6727 or the Wage Rationalization Act, the authority to set minimum wages is lodged with the Regional Tripar-
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tite Wages and Productivity Boards (RTWPBs), meaning wage adjustments are determined at the regional level rather than through a single national rate. In exercising this mandate, RTWPBs are required to weigh several criteria when adjusting wages across regions. These include the demand for living wages, changes in the consumer price index and cost of living, workers’ and families’ needs, and
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encouraging rural industry investment. They must also account for improvements in living standards, prevailing wages, employers’ capacity to pay, fair returns on capital, effects on employment and family income, and fair income distribution. Balisacan emphasized that economic conditions vary widely across regions, making a uniform wage hike impractical. See “Pay hike,” A5
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PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 61.5060 n JAPAN 0.3836 n UK 82.8978 n HK 7.8490 n CHINA 8.9882 n SINGAPORE 48.0178 n AUSTRALIA 43.7492 n EU 71.8206 n KOREA 0.0413 n SAUDI ARABIA 16.3998 Source: BSP (April 30, 2026)