Think tank ‘cautious’ on PHL outlook amid ME war By Andrea E. San Juan @andreasanjuan
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ITHIN the Asean-5 bloc, Japan-based think tank Nomura said it remains “cautious” on how the conflict in Iran poses “significant” risks to the inflation outlook and external balances of the Philippines. Given the “surge” in oil prices due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, Nomura said its clients think the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) could now turn hawkish, likely being among the first to hike interest rates within the region.
WORLD » A6
TRUMP DEMANDS NAVAL COALITION AS IRAN STRIKES GULF STATES, OIL SURGES PAST $105
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“We remain bullish on Singapore and Malaysia but cautious on Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines,” Nomura said. The think tank divulged what sets apart the two Asean countries from Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines, saying “main differentiators” range from domestic drivers to “exposures to external factors.” As for the Philippines, Nomura pointed out: “The conflict in Iran poses significant risks to the inflation outlook and external balances.” The think tank said the nearterm growth outlook remains “weak” due to the ongoing corrup-
tion scandal, further stressing: “The resolution remains uncertain and domestic political risks are rising.” Nomura said its clients in London shared their cautious outlook on Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines. The think tank underscored that amid these developments, it sees “central bank divergence,” pointing out that the rate cutting cycles of BSP and BOT (Bank of Thailand) are over. Nomura said its clients agreed that the BSP could be among the first to deliver a hike on interest rates, likely earlier than (Bank Indonesia) BI, given the impact of
rising energy prices on inflation and BSP’s “orthodox” inflationtargeting mandate. “We received questions on why BSP recently changed to become more interventionist in FX markets and whether its reserve adequacy ratio is high enough to keep USD/PHP below 60.0. Some clients raised questions about rising domestic political risks,” Nomura said. In an earlier commentary, Nomura said it raised its inflation forecast for the Philippines for 2026. “Reflecting the changes to our oil price assumptions, we raise See “Cautious,” A14
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Tuesday, March 17, 2026 Vol. 21 No. 156
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By Andrea E. San Juan @andreasanjuan
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NALYSTS are wary over the “uncertainty” in remittance transactions and worker deployment amid the crisis in the Middle East and how these developments could jolt the Philippine economy. Despite the slight uptick in cash remittances in January 2026, analysts remained concerned over the path ahead as the ongoing war in the Middle East continues to impact economies, in this case the Philippines—a country reliant on migration and remittances. Institute for Migration and Development Issues (IMDI) Executive Director Jeremaiah M. Opiniano laid out to the BusinessMirror the potential impact of the “crisis” in the Middle East, which he pointed out houses the “biggest bulk of our migrant workers/temporary migrants population.” Opiniano pointed out: “January figures are just taking off from previous months. Levels of cash remittances in previous months have accounted for depreciating peso-dollar exchange rates. That may help explain the rises, in nominal dollar terms, of cash remittances to See “OFW,” A2
LAGUNA LEVELS UP ANILAG 2026 Laguna launches Anilag Festival 2026—“Level Up” at the provincial capitol grounds in Santa Cruz, with a solemn mass celebrated by Bishop Rev. Marcelino Antonio Maralit Jr. The annual Ani ng Laguna (Anilag) festival—held every March to showcase the province’s agricultural bounty, industries, and cultural heritage—opened with ceremonies led by Governor Sol Aragones. Joining the governor onstage was 5-year-old vendor Nathan “Kinse Five” Tulod, whose cheerful presence delighted the crowd. A towering papier-mâché horse, inspired by Paete’s famed “taka” folk art, adorned the grounds, highlighting Laguna’s long-standing tradition of craftsmanship and creativity. Story on Anilag in A14. BERNARD TESTA
Peso in new record low of ₧59.87 amid ‘fog of war’ TO PUSH REGIONAL GROWTH,
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HE Philippine peso plunged to a new record low as it closed at P59.87 against the dollar on Monday, with the “fog of war” keeping investors on the edge. Data from the Bankers’ Association of the Philippines (BAP) showed the peso closed at P59.87 per $1 on Monday. This is 13 centavos weaker than its previous finish of P59.735 on Friday. Jonathan L. Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co. said: “The peso weakened anew to 59.87 as the fog of war keeps investors on the edge.” Ravelas expects the currency to trade within 59.600-59.000 levels in the near term, “as uncertainty persists.” The peso hit an intraday high of P59.95 per dollar and traded for as low as P59.7 per greenback on
Monday. The local currency has weakened for the fourth straight trading day on Monday, March 16, due to continued elevation of oil prices and “fragile” global risk sentiment which emerged due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Prior to this downtrend, the peso took a one-day break from its eight-day losing streak against the greenback on March 10. Even amid the weakening of the local currency, Ravelas described the recent movements of the peso as “knee-jerk actions only,” adding that there would be no interventions needed. Meanwhile, Union Bank of the Philippines said in its latest commentary: “For now, the [Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas] BSP’s primary anti-inflation tool is foreign ex-
BSP Gov. Eli Remolona
change stabilization.” “By leaning against peso weakness and guiding USDPHP toward 58 or lower during risk-on rallies, the central bank is using its sizeable FX reserves and strong gold position to contain second-round effects and keep forward inflation expectations anchored,” it added. Michael L. Ricafort, chief econo-
mist of Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. (RCBC) noted that while the local currency weakened for the fourth straight trading day, this was “tempered in a more positive context by confirmed BSP intervention.” Ricafort said the central bank intervened in the foreign exchange market. BSP Gov. Eli Remolona was quoted in a Bloomberg report as saying: “Since the dollar is down, I assume some intervention can push the peso back down below 60.” Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) Senior Research Fellow John Paolo R. Rivera earlier said the Philippine peso could test the 60 level in the near term, especially if oil prices remain elevated and global risk sentiment stays “fragile.”
DEPDEV PUSHES MORE PPP’S By Justine Xyrah Garcia
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HE Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DepDev) is seeking stronger collaboration with the private sector through publicprivate partnerships (PPPs) to accelerate regional growth. DepDev Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said sustained coordination among national government agencies, local government units (LGUs), and private sector partners is crucial to advancing development across the regions. Balisacan said national development priorities must translate into concrete projects and investments in cities, provinces, and communities. He also noted that Regional Develop-
ment Councils (RDCs) play a key role in aligning national goals with local development needs. Through the preparation of Regional Development Plans and Regional Development Investment Programs, the councils help ensure that national priorities are reflected in regional strategies while strengthening the link between planning, budgeting, and investment programming. As the technical secretariat of the RDCs, DepDev’s regional offices assist in coordinating planning activities, policy development, and investment programming to support development initiatives across the regions. “Innovation must take root where opportunities and challenges are most visible— See “Growth,” A2
See “Peso,” A2
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 59.5540 n JAPAN 0.3733 n UK 78.8912 n HK 7.6089 n CHINA 8.6256 n SINGAPORE 46.4395 n AUSTRALIA 41.6640 n EU 68.0821 n KOREA 0.0397 n SAUDI ARABIA 15.8726 Source: BSP (March 16, 2026)