After Duterte arrest, business leaders carry on By Andrea E. San Juan and Reine Juvierre S. Alberto
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HILIPPINE business leaders are staying in their lane as they lure more investments and strengthen trade ties with other economies while it is still “too early” to gauge the impact of the arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte on the country’s business climate and image. “To be honest, what happened was unexpected. So because it’s unexpected, it’s still too early to tell. Well, life goes on,” George Barcelon, Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) Chairman, told reporters on the sidelines of the PCCI-Slovenia Business Forum on Wednesday in Taguig City. “In our case, we’re on the business side. As you can see, we’re very active trying to attract missions from other countries para both ways they
invest in us and we export our Filipino products,” Barcelon added. See related story in B2, “‘Investors unfazed by arrest of ex-president.” While the arrest warrant for Duterte may cause short-term market disruptions, an economist said this reinforces the Philippines’ legal integrity and potentially attract more investments in the long run. During the Management Association of the Philippines’ (MAP) general meeting on Wednesday, New York-based think tank GlobalSource Partners Country Analyst Diwa Guinigundo said Duterte’s arrest could actually boost the local economy. “[The arrest] will encourage people to invest here because such kind of extrajudicial killing is [not] something that we tolerate. There is a rule of law. And when there is rule of law, there is stability of investment and production,” Guinigundo said.
However, in the short-run, Duterte’s arrest may cause volatility in the financial markets as investors react to political uncertainties, Guinigundo noted. If Duterte’s arrest will attract a big crowd, such as a people power movement, Guinigundo said financial markets will be upset and disturbed. On Tuesday morning, Duterte was arrested for his crimes against humanity case before the International Criminal Court (ICC) over his bloody war against illegal drugs. (See: https:// businessmirror.com.ph/2025/03/11/ duterte-seeks-sc-relief-as-interpol-servesicc-warrant/). In the afternoon, the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) dropped sharply by 2.42 percent and closed at 6,206.55 on Tuesday while government bond yields also fell. “Over time, [investors] will realize that
something can be done here in the Philippines. We don’t tolerate these kinds of offenses,” Guinigundo said. “The issue of good governance will surface, and people will start realizing that this is something good because if indeed a crime was committed, it has to be prosecuted,” he added. The former Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) deputy governor said the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals will continue to hold while correct public policies will continue to be formulated and implemented by the authorities. However, while the Philippines’ growth performance surpassed the global average in 2022 and 2023 of 3.5 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively, the country still has a lot of catching up to do, Guinigundo said. See “Duterte,” A2
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BSP: PHL MUST EXIT FATF n
GREY LIST FOR GOOD
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By Reine Juvierre S. Alberto @reine_alberto
HE Philippines is undertaking a new national risk assessment to stay out of the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) grey list as money laundering proliferates in digital technology. In a forum on Tuesday, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr. said just because the Philippines has exited the grey list, it does not mean it’s over. “We have to make sure we do not get back into the grey list. In the past, we go in, we go out. This time, we are determined to stay out of the grey list,” Remolona said. The Philippines recently exited the grey list on February 22, after nearly four years, but was urged to sustain improvements in its antimoney laundering and counter-terrorism financing measures. (See: https://businessmirror.com. ph/2025/02/22/phl-exits-fatfsdirty-money-grey-list/). Remolona said the central bank is monitoring potential threats in the economy and reassessing risks that could lead to money laundering and terrorism financing. The next big threat, according
to the central banker, is the rise of digital technology as the evolving digital space is the “preferred means” for money launderers to take money in. “We have to look at digital technology and what it’s doing. These guys are very innovative,” Remolona said. “It’s essentially an arms race between us and them so we have to keep up with the arms race. That’s why we’re doing a risk assessment,” the governor added. The next FATF evaluation of the Philippines is set for 2027, and Remolona said the Philippines is preparing to ensure it will meet all the requirements to pass the assessment. In an email response to BusinessMirror, the BSP said it remains committed to sustaining risk-based anti-money laundering, counter-terrorism financing and counter-proliferation financing supervisory strategies See “BSP,” A2
DRUG WAR TO COURTROOM WAR Supporters of former President Rodrigo Duterte light candles and wave Philippine flags during a protest at Villamor Air Base in Pasay City on March 11, 2025, hours after Duterte was detained and flown to The Hague. His arrest follows an International Criminal Court (ICC) investigation into alleged crimes against humanity during his administration’s war on drugs. Duterte is expected to challenge the ICC’s jurisdiction as he faces possible trial in the Netherlands. ROY DOMINGO
GOVT TO RECKON WITH CAUSES OF HUGE FDI DROP IN ’24 Moody’s keeps ‘stable’ By Samuel P. Medenilla @sam_medenilla
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ALACAÑANG has vowed to address the gaps which caused the significant drop in foreign direct investments (FDI) last year. In a press briefing on Wednesday, Palace Press Officer Claire Castro said they are now verifying the cause of the decline stated by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). “For now, we are now determining the cause [of the decline] of the foreign investments. Because sometimes there are records, which show
that investments in the Philippines are rising,” Castro said in Filipino. In its preliminary data, BSP reported that the amount of FDI in December plunged to US$110 million from US$743 million in the same period last year. Economists attributed the decline to policy uncertainty and global economic risks. Full-year FDI inflows for 2024 only reached US$8.93 billion, which is below its projected US$9-billion target for the year. Meanwhile, the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) reported last December to its Philippine Board of Investments that its approved invest-
ments from January to November 2024 reached P1.62 trillion, which is higher compared to P1.1 trillion year-on-year. “We will find out if there are any shortcomings, and business experts and our heads of agencies will immediately take steps to address whatever impact this may have,” Castro said. According to Philippine Institute for Development Studies Senior Research Fellow John Paolo Rivera, “Policy uncertainty and global economic risks may have dampened investor sentiment, leading firms to delay or scale down expansion plans in the Philippines.” Although Donald Trump’s
influence on the drip in FDI inflows is “indirect at best,” Rivera said investor sentiment is forward-looking and his presidency is a factor in global investment decisions. The sharp decline in net FDI inflows is also “concerning,” Rivera said, as this indicates both short-term financial pressures on local firms and potential shifts in investor sentiment toward the Philippine economy. The BSP had said the FDI declined due to increased debt repayments by resident corporations to their nonresident direct investor. The higher debt repayments See “Govt,” A2
outlook for PHL banking
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NTERNATIONAL credit watcher Moody’s Ratings maintained a “stable” (Baa2) outlook for the Philippine banking system on the back of strong economic growth. “Strong economic growth underpinned by further rate cuts and stabilized inflation in 2025 will drive credit demand and support loan quality,” the rating agency said. According to Moody’s Ratings, the Philippine economy is “one of the fastest-growing economies” in Asia and is projected to grow by 6 percent in 2025 and 2026. Despite global uncertainties posing upside risks to inflation, Moody’s Ratings expect it to remain between 2 percent and 4 percent— similar to the government’s target range—and will improve domestic consumption and investments. Moody’s Rating said the easing inflation will
also support a further reduction in key policy rates this year to drive economic growth and credit demand as well as support loan quality. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr. said the central bank is still on the easing cycle as a 25-basis point rate cut (bps) at a time could be delivered this year. However, should the Philippine economy fall into a recession, rates could be reduced by as much as 50 bps in its next ratesetting meeting. (See: https://businessmirror.com.ph/2025/03/11/hard-landingcould-spur-a-50-bps-rate-cut/). The BSP announced that the next Monetary Board meeting on the review of the BSP’s monetary policy stance was moved to April 10 from the original schedule of April 3, to take into account—in its decision—the March inflation See “Moody’s,” A2
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 57.3590 n JAPAN 0.3883 n UK 74.2799 n HK 7.3816 n CHINA 7.9362 n SINGAPORE 43.1012 n AUSTRALIA 36.0960 n EU 62.5959 n KOREA 0.0395 n SAUDI ARABIA 15.2949 Source: BSP (March 12, 2025)