‘Pinoys may not feel rebound soon’ By Bless Aubrey Ogerio
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RUNNING LOW The water level at Angat Dam in Norzagaray, Bulacan, fell to 163.51 meters on Wednesday, June 24, 2026, significantly below
its normal high-water level of 210 meters. The reservoir supplies more than 90 percent of Metro Manila’s potable water and plays a vital role in power generation through its four hydroelectric turbines, which can produce up to 200 megawatts for the Luzon grid. Hydropower operations are suspended when the dam’s elevation drops below 180 meters. NONOY LACZA
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HILE the government expects stronger economic activity in the second half of the year, economists said a recovery in growth may not immediately translate into better conditions for ordinary Filipinos, with the impact depending on whether economic expansion creates more jobs and income opportunities. This comes after Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DepDev) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said on Monday that the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) is aiming to achieve economic growth of at least 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent in 2026. The government had earlier revised its 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) growth target to 5 percent to 6 percent from the previous 6 percent to 7 percent range. De La Salle University economics professor Maria Ella Oplas said the lower growth outlook itself
signals a slower pace of economic expansion than previously expected. “Target is very important because it signals what the government is expecting the economy to be,” Oplas explained. “Lower growth means lower employment opportunities, lower income opportunities.” She noted that while a 3.5-percent to 4.5-percent expansion is not the worst outcome, it still points to a slower recovery. “Expect the economy to move slow. While expectations improved, it is not a good picture for all of us,” Oplas said. Further, she said that slower economic activity could help keep inflation from accelerating sharply because weaker demand may limit price increases. Yet, lower inflation also does not necessarily mean consumers are better off, as subdued demand could also reflect weaker purchasing power. “Prices are low because there is not much buying and selling since people do not have money. That is due to lower employment and fewer in-
come opportunities,” Oplas said in Filipino. She also warned that external shocks, such as fuel price increases that the country has limited control over, could pose a bigger risk under a weaker growth environment. Oil firms will cut pump prices on Tuesday, which is among the largest fuel price rollbacks in recent weeks. Yet, a Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) report showed that even if local pump prices are expected to decline in the coming weeks amid easing tensions in the Middle East, the reduction may not immediately be reflected in lower inflation. For Ateneo de Manila University economics professor Leonardo Lanzona, the expected recovery is largely dependent on the government’s plan to accelerate spending after delays in previous quarters. “The recovery referred to by the Secretary hinges on the notion that increased government See “Rebound,” A2
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‘HIKING RATES TO CURE RUNAWAY INFLATION’ www.businessmirror.com.ph
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Thursday, June 25, 2026 Vol. 21 No. 254
P25.00 nationwide | 4 sections 28 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK
OPENING MOVES Members of the prosecution and defense panels attend the fourth day
of the pretrial conference in the impeachment case against Vice President Sara Duterte at the Senate in Pasay City on Wednesday, June 24, 2026. The proceedings focused on procedural matters, including the marking of evidence and other preparations ahead of the formal impeachment trial scheduled to begin in July. ROY DOMINGO
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By Andrea E. San Juan
IKING interest rates may be a “bitter pill to swallow” as it temporarily makes borrowing tougher, but it cures a worse disease: runaway inflation, which destroys the purchasing power of Filipino households, according to analysts. “Bringing interest rates back to normal, more sustainable levels is a bitter pill to swallow. It temporarily makes borrowing tougher, but it cures a worse disease: runaway inflation, which destroys everyone’s purchasing power,” Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri Jr. told the BusinessMirror in a Viber message on Wednesday. “This shift,” Neri added, “actually benefits both ordinary Filipinos and businessmen.”
Other analysts echoed this sentiment, saying raising interest rates would benefit ordinary Filipinos as well as savers, importers, and businessmen. Carlo Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, told this newspaper that while borrowing costs may rise in the near term, “savers benefit from higher deposit rates, and a more stable peso can help temper the cost of imports.” See “Inflation,” A2
SMALLER HOUSEHOLDS NOW BECOMING NEW PINOY NORM By Bless Aubrey Ogerio
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ILIPINO households are getting smaller, with the average household size falling to 3.8 persons in 2024 from 4.1 persons in 2020, according to data released by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). The latest results of the 2024 Census of Population showed that the decline continues a long-term trend observed since 2010, even as the number of households across the country has continued to grow. The PSA recorded 29.67 million households in 2024, up by 12.4 percent or 3.27 million from the 26.39 million households counted in 2020. Compared with 2015, the number of households increased by 29.1 percent, equivalent to an addi-
tional 6.69 million households. Despite the rise in households, the country’s average household size has steadily decreased over the years, reflecting changes in family composition and living arrangements. The household population reached 112.33 million persons in 2024, accounting for 99.6 percent of the Philippines’s total population. This was 3.4 percent higher than the 108.67 million household population recorded in 2020 and 11.7 percent above the 100.57 million reported in 2015. The remaining 0.4 percent of the population consisted of individuals living in institutional or collective quarters, including hospitals, orphanages, military camps and Filipinos assigned to Philippine embassies, consulates, See “Households,” A2
BMI: Fertilizer demand to grow strong in SEA By Bless Aubrey Ogerio
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OUTHEAST Asia is expected to remain one of the strongest sources of fertilizer demand growth in Asia, providing a bright spot for the regional market even as high production costs continue to weigh on farm profitability, according to a report by BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions. In its latest Asia Fertilizer Outlook, BMI said fertilizer consumption in several Southeast Asian economies is likely to expand over the long term, supported by steady gains in crop production and growing agricultural activity. The outlook could also have implications for the Philippines, where rice, fruit, vegetable and plantation crop production remains heavily reliant on fertilizer inputs and is closely tied to broader trends in the region. “We estimate that crop produc-
tion in the Southeast Asia region remained broadly healthy in 2023/24, as has been the case over recent seasons, with rice and palm oil output on a steady uptrend,” BMI said. The research firm identified Indonesia as one of the region’s strongest performers, while Vietnam is expected to lag due to constraints in agricultural expansion and what BMI described as excessive fertilizer application. BMI also cited Cambodia and Myanmar as emerging growth markets, noting that fertilizer demand in both countries is rising from a relatively low base as agricultural output expands. “We are particularly positive regarding long-term demand growth in Thailand, Indonesia and emerging agribusiness markets such as Cambodia and Myanmar, which are recording robust growth in crop output,” it said. See “Fertilizer,” A2
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 61.3550 n JAPAN 0.3799 n UK 81.0193 n HK 7.8256 n CHINA 9.0310 n SINGAPORE 47.3454 n AUSTRALIA 42.4454 n EU 69.8465 n KOREA 0.0401 n SAUDI ARABIA 16.3444 Source: BSP (June 24, 2026)