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ANALYSTS SEE BSP DOING 50-BPS RATE CUTS IN H2 www.businessmirror.com.ph
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Monday, June 23, 2025 Vol. 20 No. 253
P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 20 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK
By Cai U. Ordinario
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OREIGN analysts expect the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to continue easing monetary policy in the second semester of the year even if it has already become the most dovish country in the region. 6.50 6.25 6.00
Actual RRP Rate Projected RRP Rate (Nomura)
5.75 5.50 5.25 5.00 4.75
06-27-24 08-15-24 10-16-24 12-19-24 02-13-25 04-10-25 06-19-25
WHY IT MATTERS:
When inflation is low, central banks may turn dovish to boost the economy. For borrowers, dovish policies can mean lower loan rates—but they can also weaken the currency.
Both Nomura and ANZ Research expect the BSP to deal a reduction of 50 basis points more for the rest of the year. The Monetary Board still has three meetings left for 2025, with the next one slated for August 28. See related story in B3 Banking, “Rising oil prices may bar BSP from rate cuts–Citi.” Nomura noted that with the recent reduction
08-25
“An escalation in the Middle East conflict that is accompanied by further increases in oil prices could keep BSP from cutting and instead prompt it to leave the policy rate unchanged in the near term.” —Nomura
10-25
Dovish vs. Hawkish Term
Stance
Focus
Dovish
Lower interest rates
Growth, jobs, spending
Hawkish
Higher interest rates
Inflation control, stability
BM Graphics: Ed Davad
RRP Rate (%)
RATE CUTS TIMELINE: BSP’S DOVISH TURN
in policy rates last June 19, the BSP has already slashed 125 basis points (bps) in its policy rate, the most in the region. “Considering its dovish tone today, especially on BSP’s still-benign inflation outlook amid rising oil prices, we maintain our forecast for BSP to cut by an additional 50bp this year, which would See “Analysts,” A2
SANGLEY INTL AIRPORT BEGINS CONSTRUCTION IN ‘25—JONVIC By Ma. Stella F. Arnaldo
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Special to the BusinessMirror
ANGLEY Point International Airport (SPIA) in Cavite intends to be a premier international airport after the end of life of the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (Naia). In an interview with the BusinessMirror, Interior Secretary Juanito Victor “Jonvic” Remulla said, “Yes, that’s what we are planning [for Sangley to be a premier aiport],” adding there won’t be any competition with the See “Sangley,” A2
TANK FULL, HOPE LOW With his hand on the steering wheel and eyes on the fuel pump meter, a jeepney driver watches as a gasoline attendant refuels his vehicle in Las Piñas City on Sunday, June 22, 2025. For many drivers, Tuesday’s expected P5-per-liter price hike is more than just a number on the screen; it’s a direct hit to their daily earnings. The increase is driven by global oil price spikes and escalating tensions in the Middle East. NONIE REYES
DOE, oil firms to meet on rising fuel prices By Lenie Lectura
REMULLA presents his plans before the HSMA. PHOTO COURTESY OF HSMA
Freshly Brewed
HEALING THE MIND IN A DIGITAL AGE MENTAL HEALTH EXPERT PROF. YENG GATCHALIAN UNPACKS THE QUIET CRISIS BEHIND OUR SCREENS »A12
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@llectura
HE energy department is set to meet petroleum companies on Monday to discuss ways to temper the impact of rising fuel prices, as global markets quoted steady increases with the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. An oil company said Sunday that pump prices are expected to further go up on Tuesday compared to previous estimates. Jetti Petroleum Inc. projected last Saturday that diesel prices to go up by as much as P5.10 per liter and gasoline by P3.4 per liter more. On Sunday, Jetti President Leo Bellas said pump prices will continue to soar after US forces bombed three nuclear sites in Iran at the weekend. “The estimated increase could rise further. Diesel could in-
JETTI President Leo Bellas PHOTO GRABBED FROM JETTI WEBSITE
crease more than P5 per liter,” said Bellas. On Sunday, estimates for June 24 of fuel price increases rose from the June 20 Department of Energy projections after the US intervention against Iran. The updated projections had diesel rising per liter by P5
to P5.20; gasoline by P3.30 to P3.50; and kerosene by P4.50 to P4.70. Oil companies adjust their pump prices every week to reflect movements in the world oil market. “The potential increase in premium and freight, which are projected to rise because of the expanded scope of hostilities, could be factored in the expected movement on domestic prices,” said Bellas. “We will know the effects on the freight and premium as soon as trading commences early tomorrow morning,” Bellas said. Last Friday, Department of Energy-Oil Industry Management Bureau (OIMB) director Rodela Romero said based on the four-day trading in Mean of Platts Singapore, the benchmark trading of oil importers, gasoline is already poised to increase from P2.50 to P3 per liter, diesel from P4.30 to P4.80 per liter and kerosene
from P4.25 to P4.40 per liter. The DOE is expected to meet the oil firms Monday to discuss proposals on how rising fuel prices could be tempered. For one, the agency will appeal for a staggered implementation of the price increase. “We will discuss the implementation of the price increase on staggered basis, promos and discount offerings of stations, among others,” Bellas commented. The DOE’s immediate priority is to ensure that fuel supply remains stable and sufficient, and that any local price adjustments are managed in a way that minimizes disruption to the economy, DOE officer-in-charge Sharon Garin said. Oil companies are currently mandated to maintain at least a 30-day inventory of crude oil and a 15-day inventory of finished petroleum products.
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 57.3270 n JAPAN 0.3942 n UK 77.1851 n HK 7.3030 n CHINA 7.9765 n SINGAPORE 44.5881 n AUSTRALIA 37.1135 n EU 65.9031 n KOREA 0.0416 n SAUDI ARABIA 15.2782 Source: BSP (June 20, 2025)