‘PHL to suffer Mideast war fallout until 2028’ By Justine Xyrah Garcia
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HE economic fallout from the Middle East conflict could linger well beyond this year, with economists from De La Salle University (DLSU) projecting Philippine growth to remain below government targets until 2028. In its June report on the Philippine economy, the DLSU further trimmed its 2026 growth forecast to 3.08 percent from 3.11 percent previously. It expects gross domestic product (GDP) growth to reach 3.4 percent in 2027 and 3.6 percent in 2028, down from its earlier projections of 3.9 and 5.7 percent, respectively.
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TENTATIVE DEAL REACHED TO END IRAN WAR; TRUMP ORDERS STOP TO US NAVAL BLOCKADE
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These updated projections also fall well below the government’s growth targets of 5 to 6 percent for 2026, 5.5 to 6.5 percent for 2027, and 6 to 7 percent for 2028. Should these forecasts materialize, the Marcos administration would miss all of its annual economic growth targets since taking office in 2022. “We do not see faster growth under the current domestic and international conditions. Unless the US/ Israel-Iran war ends soon (the two parties just agreed to end it) and the world economy recovers fast and the domestic mood turns around, this state of affairs will remain until the
end of this Administration,” the report stated. DLSU said the downgrade in its 2026 growth forecast was driven largely by the prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which it described as the “single largest negative shock” weighing on the country’s growth prospects. The university said these risks are being compounded by domestic political uncertainties, including the unresolved flood control controversy, leadership changes in the Senate, the International Criminal Court case involving Senator Ronald dela Rosa, and the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte.
According to DLSU, these developments could further dampen investor confidence in the country. The report noted that after expanding by 2.8 percent in the first quarter, the economy is expected to slow further to 2.5 percent in the second quarter and 2.2 percent in the third quarter before rebounding to 4.81 percent in the final quarter of the year. DLSU said the expected slowdown in the coming quarters also reflects the full impact of the energy shock on the domestic economy, tighter monetary conditions, and mounting risks to food production arising from higher fertilizer costs and the anticipated See “War,” A2
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By Justine Xyrah Garcia
NY drop in global oil prices following the announced peace agreement between the United States and Iran is unlikely to translate into immediate price relief for Filipino consumers, with economists warning that food prices may take longer to adjust as the looming El Niño poses fresh risks to supply. On Monday, US President Donald Trump announced that the two countries had agreed to sign a frame-
work agreement on June 19 to end the more than three-month conflict. See “Price,” A2
PBBM TO LEAD ASEAN TALKS WITH MOSCOW ON ENERGY By Samuel P. Medenilla
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@sam_medenilla
RESIDENT Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will lead efforts of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) in seeking greater cooperation on energy and culture with Moscow as well as economic engagements with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) during the Asian regional bloc’s commemorative summit with Russia this week, according to the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA). The chief executive, who is currently the chair, will also
hold bilateral talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss energy and food security, while deferring any defense-related issues in time for the 50th anniversary of their diplomatic relations. Asean will hold its commemorative summit with Moscow in Kazan, Russia on June 17 and 18 to celebrate the 35th anniversary of their relations. Among the outcome documents, which are expected to be finalized in the meeting is the Kazan 2026, which will give details on the shared vision of both parties, as well as joint See “Moscow,” A2
LEAVING FOR A LIVING Pedestrians and motorists pass a mural honoring Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) on the walls of the Department of Migrant Workers in Mandaluyong City on Monday, June 15, 2026. Results of the March 19–25, 2026, Tugon ng Masa survey conducted by Octa Research showed that 57 percent of adult Filipinos would choose to live or work abroad if given the opportunity, citing better job opportunities, higher wages, and an improved quality of life as their primary motivations. Story in Second Front Page, A16. NONOY LACZA
Cash remittances hit 11-month low By Andrea E. San Juan
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SUMMER’S LAST WAVE Low tide at noontime exposes a wider stretch of Laiya Beach
in Barangay Laiya Aplaya, San Juan, Batangas, where small bancas are stationed along the shoreline. Once a popular peak summer destination, the beach now sees fewer visitors as June signals the onset of the rainy season in many parts of the Philippines, with the southwest monsoon beginning to bring more frequent rainfall. Despite the seasonal shift, some beachgoers still take the opportunity to swim and cool off at midday heat. ROY DOMINGO
IGHTER budgets among overseas workers made them send less money back home as cash remittances plunged to the lowest level in 11 months. Data from Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed cash remittances or the money sent home by Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) reached $2.72 billion in April 2026, up 2 percent from the $2.66 billion inflows in April 2025. On a month-on-month basis, however, the $2.72-billion remittance inflows in April were 5.23 percent lower than the $2.87 billion sent home by overseas Filipino workers in March 2026 or in the previous month. The cash sent home by Filipinos working abroad in April was also the lowest amount since May 2025 when OFWs sent home $2.66 billion.
Ruben Carlo Asuncion, chief economist at the Union Bank of the Philippines (UBP) explained: “Cash remittance growth remained positive but softened notably, pointing to more cautious household flows amid global uncertainty and tighter budgets among overseas workers.” Asuncion said the “sequential drop” in April suggests some normalization after earlier front-loading, but the slower year-on-year pace highlights “emerging headwinds to income and deployment conditions.” Moving forward, however, the private bank economist noted that the recent signing of a peace deal in the Middle East could help “stabilize” employment prospects and support remittance flows from the region, reducing downside risks in the near term. “Overall, remittances should remain resilient, but growth is likely to stay modest as elevated inflation
continues to constrain both senders and recipients,” added Asuncion.
‘Not a structural slowdown’
JONATHAN L. RAVELAS, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said April’s remittance data points to “temporary headwinds, not a structural slowdown.” Ravelas said the latest data release on the money sent home by Filipinos working abroad presents: “A mix of seasonality after a strong first quarter, normalization from elevated post-pandemic flows, and some softness in key host economies.” He also noted that the Middle East tensions may have had a marginal effect, but given the “diversified” employment of Filipino workers, this is not the main driver. Looking ahead, the foreign exchange analyst said the recent slowdown in growth could linger in
the near term, but the fundamentals remain intact—steady global demand for Filipino labor, ongoing deployment, and a gradual shift to higher-skilled, better-paid jobs. “We typically see stronger inflows in the second half due to seasonal factors,” Ravelas said. Ravelas said remittance growth may look softer and more uneven month-to-month, but it remains a “stable and reliable” backbone for the Philippine economy. For his part, John Paolo Rivera, Senior Research Fellow at Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS), said remittances should remain a “key source” of resilience for the Philippine economy but growth may stay modest for the rest of the year. Historically, however, Rivera said OFWs tend to prioritize supporting their families during periods of uncertainty, which should help keep remittance flows “relatively stable.”
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 61.3260 n JAPAN 0.3838 n UK 82.4467 n HK 7.8268 n CHINA 9.0664 n SINGAPORE 47.8362 n AUSTRALIA 43.4372 n EU 71.1872 n KOREA 0.0404 n SAUDI ARABIA 16.3427 Source: BSP (June 15, 2026)