Rebound in Q1, but momentum slow–UA&P
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IRAN SLAMS TRUMP’S THREATS AHEAD OF GENEVA TALKS IN FACE OF MAJOR US MILITARY DEPLOYMENT
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CONOMIC growth is expected to post a modest rebound in the first quarter of 2026, but momentum is likely to remain restrained following a weak end to last year, according to economists from the University of Asia and Pacific’s (UA&P). The latest UA&P Market Call report projected gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by 3.3 percent in the first quarter of 2026, with full-year growth seen settling at 4.2 percent. The updated outlook marks a notable shift from UA&P’s earlier projection that growth would exceed 5 percent in the first quarter and sustain that pace through the year. Economists said the revision reflects
the incorporation of the weaker-thanexpected fourth quarter GDP data, which showed the economy slowing to 3 percent at the end of 2025. Public construction plunged 41.9 percent in the final quarter, dragging gross capital formation down 10.9 percent and pulling full-year GDP to 4.4 percent—below the government’s target range. “More indicators revealed the impact of the flood control scandal, hurting economic growth in 2025 as sentiment points through a “muddling through” scenario for 2026,” the report noted. Despite the weak finish to 2025, UA&P expects the economy to register a slight pickup in the first quarter as inflation remains manageable and external demand
stays firm. The report noted that inflation is projected to stay within the lower half of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’s (BSP) 2- to 4-percent target range, providing a stable backdrop for household consumption. “We anticipate that consumer activity—including household spending, home purchases, car sales, equipment leasing, and other interest-sensitive outlays—will improve in the first quarter,” The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) earlier reported that headline inflation stood at 2 percent in January, while month-on-month price pressures remained subdued. Data from the PSA showed that inflation in housing, water, electricity, gas, and
other fuels index climbed to 3.3 percent in January, accounting for nearly half—or 45.9 percent—of the overall inflation acceleration last month. With inflation remaining within target despite some upward pressure from utilities, the economists said monetary authorities still have room to ease policy to support growth. In February, the BSP trimmed its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent, which the UA&P believes is a “well anticipated but much needed move.” “The change to its “nearing the end of the easing cycle” angle to one of “uncertainty” and “confidence” will likely lead to further cuts as early as April,” the economists added. Justine Xyrah Garcia
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‘WORLD OIL PRICES POSE RISK TO LOCAL INFLATION’ www.businessmirror.com.ph
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Friday, February 27, 2026 Vol. 21 No. 138
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By Justine Xyrah Garcia
LTHOUGH the Philippines is geographically far from geopolitical tensions abroad, rising global oil prices are emerging as a key upside risk to domestic inflation. National Statistician Dennis Claire S. Mapa said the sustained increase in pump prices over the past two months poses the biggest risk to inflation in February. “One possible risk for February is the price of oil because every week, oil prices are increasing. Those are the risks…But since we
measure it year on year, we will look at whether those increases are higher than during the same period last year,” Mapa told reporters in a chance interview. Earlier this week, the Department of Energy (DOE) said global developments are driving the See “Inflation,” A2
REGULATORY INCOME BOOSTS PPA’S RECORD P30-B REVENUE By Lorenz S. Marasigan
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HE Philippine Ports Authority (PPA) posted record revenues of P30.09 billion in fiscal year 2025, up 8.86 percent from the previous year, the agency reported Thursday. Jay Santiago, the agency’s general manager, said the figure is the highest in the history of the PPA, eclipsing the previous record of P27.64 billion posted in 2024. He added that the agency’s revenues have more than dou-
bled since 2016, when total revenues stood at P14.32 billion. Santiago attributed the revenue growth to sustained increases in vessel traffic and cargo throughput, higher storage revenues, strengthened regulatory income following tariff adjustments, and gains from dollar-denominated tariffs. Regulatory income has grown to P15.68 billion in 2024 from P6.82 billion in 2016. “With its consistent upward revenue trajectory, PPA is wellpositioned to fund ongoing and See “PPA,” A2
BLOOMING BEAUTY Floral artists in Baguio City meticulously arrange blooms on a majestic float featuring a pair of swans on Thursday, ahead of the Grand Float Parade for Panagbenga Festival
2026 on March 1 along Session Road; now in its 30th year, the festival began in 1995 to celebrate Baguio’s flower industry and uplift the city after the 1990 earthquake, showcasing artistry, culture, and community spirit through elaborate floral floats and street dances. MAU VICTA
NFA eases palay rules to be able to buy more By Ada Pelonia
T NGCP PULLS IT TOGETHER: EARLY COMEBACK FOR AKLAN LINE The National Grid Corporation of the Philippines energized the Unidos-Caticlan 69kV Line at 1:31 p.m. on February 13, 2026—nearly a month ahead of its March target—fully normalizing transmission services for Caticlan and Boracay in Aklan after completing the installation of a new 69kV XLPE underground cable and full reconductoring works across the mountainous line, despite disruptions from Tropical Storm Basyang and aviation safety restrictions from the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines. Story in B2 Companies. NGCP PHOTO
@adapelonia
HE National Food Authority (NFA) has eased its palay procurement rules to purchase more from local planters ahead of peak harvest season. The NFA enabled “more flexible” buying standards after a recent meeting with stakeholders to review and update its standard operating procedures ahead of the surge in harvest. The grains agency recalibrated what qualifies as dry palay by widening the acceptable moisture content range to 11 to 14 percent, from the narrower 12 to 14 percent benchmark that often led to rejected deliveries. Such an adjustment allows
more farmers to meet the higher procurement price without being downgraded on technical grounds, the NFA said. With further revisions including a refined pest standard now defined as “visibly free from pests,” the agency noted that fewer harvests would be rejected for minor or non-material defects. NFA Administrator Larry Lacson said the initiative’s timing was deliberate: “As harvest peaks, prices tend to soften because of oversupply.” “By widening our specifications now, we can absorb more volume and help farmers avoid distress selling. Every percentage point we adjust in moisture tolerance can mean more bags accepted and more income in farmers’ pockets,” Lac-
son added. The grains agency explained that for years, planters have complained that rigid procurement rules pushed them toward private traders offering lower farmgate prices but quicker cash. “The revised standards aim to make the NFA a more accessible and competitive buyer while preserving grain quality and rebuilding buffer stocks.” Despite certain changes, the NFA maintained its buying price at P17 per kilo for fresh or wet palay and P21 per kilo for dry. For his part, Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said the changes reflect a broader policy direction. “This is about aligning procurement policy with the realities faced
by our farmers,” Tiu Laurel, who chairs the NFA Council, said. “President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has been clear. We want farmers to be profitable, not perpetually vulnerable to price swings. A food-secure Philippines starts with farmers who earn fairly from their harvest.” The DA chief added that “smarter and more responsive” buying rules improve farmer incomes while also strengthening national food security by ensuring steady palay inflows into government stocks. “For rice farmers, [the NFA’s move] could mean fewer rejected sacks, steadier demand from a government buyer, and a more predictable income stream at the very moment supply is at its highest.”
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 57.5970 n JAPAN 0.3684 n UK 78.1131 n HK 7.3656 n CHINA 8.3971 n SINGAPORE 45.5961 n AUSTRALIA 41.0263 n EU 68.0336 n KOREA 0.0404 n SAUDI ARABIA 15.3559 Source: BSP (February 26, 2026)