BSP seen cutting rates on tepid GDP growth in Q4
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N interest rate cut on February 19 is likely as economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2025, with weaker consumer spending and investment strengthening the case for monetary easing. In its latest forecast, Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. (Metrobank) said the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) could reduce the key policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent, as softer economic conditions outweigh nearterm inflation concerns. Metrobank said economic growth “moderated sharply” in the fourth quarter of 2025, with
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GDP expanding by 3 percent, bringing full-year growth to 4.4 percent. It attributed the slowdown to weaker household spending and muted private investment, both of which remain critical drivers of the Philippine economy. “Household expenditure continues to face headwinds, and this softness in domestic demand strengthens the case for monetary easing,” Metrobank said in its latest market outlook published on Wealth Insights. “A timely rate cut could provide the necessary support to reinvigorate growth momentum.”
While economic activity is expected to gain traction in the second half of 2026, Metrobank noted that near-term vulnerabilities warrant a “proactive response” from the BSP. BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr. recently signaled that the monetary easing cycle may not be nearing its end yet, as the seven-member Monetary Board continues is scrutinize various data points. (See: https://businessmirror.com.ph/2026/02/12/ bsp-signals-easing-may-notend-yet/). Remolona said the Monetary Board prioritizes inflation data
over growth figures. “If we succeed with inflation, it should help growth.” Meanwhile, Metrobank said inflation remains manageable despite a slight uptick at the start of the year. Consumer prices rose to 2 percent in January from 1.8 percent in December, driven largely by higher utility costs, even as food inflation continued to ease. Metrobank expects inflation to edge higher toward the lower end of the central bank’s 2 to 4 percent target range this year due to base effects, although the See “GDP,” A2
BusinessMirror A broader look at today’s business
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‘SUPPLY SHOCKS DULL RATE TWEAKS’ IMPACT’ www.businessmirror.com.ph
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Monday, February 16, 2026 Vol. 21 No. 127
P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 20 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK
By Reine Juvierre S. Alberto @reine_alberto
ECURRENT food and oil price shocks are weakening the effectiveness of interest rate transmission, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said, as it urged the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to strengthen its monetary policy framework. In its Economic Survey and Action Plan of the Philippines, the OECD said frequent supply shocks—such as higher food and oil prices, and natural disasters— pose challenges to the conduct of monetary policy. “Monetary policy cannot effectively counteract supply shocks, but repeated supply
shocks nonetheless require central bank attention,” OECD said. “The BSP would need to react by tightening monetary policy, although this would depress domestic demand at a time when economic activity is already weakened by the adverse supply shock.” See “Supply,” A2
EL AL DIRECT SERVICE TO PHL SEEN ENTICING MORE ISRAELI TOURISTS By Ma. Stella F. Arnaldo Special to the BusinessMirror
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ETTER air connectivity will not just encourage more tourists from Israel to visit the Philippines, but also diversify the types of visitors. In an interview with the BusinessMirror, Yoav Golan, Business Development Manager of Flyeast Philippines said, “I really hope the direct flights between Israel and the Philippines will happen…because it will open the door to people who couldn’t come because they don’t do connecting flights like families and
their children, and companies who do incentive tours. This will also increase the market definitely especially for Filipinos going there [for Holy Land tours].” This developed as Israel’s flag carrier El Al announced in early February thrice-weekly nonstop flights to Hanoi, Seoul, and Manila from Tel Aviv, although it had yet to say when exactly the flights to Manila will start. Philippine Airlines had previously announced plans to fly direct between Manila and Tel Aviv twice a week starting October 2021, but the route failed to materialize. See “El Al,” A2
COUNTING ON GOOD FORTUNE Visitors view a giant wooden abacus, its golden beads dominating the frame, inside a Binondo mall on the eve of the Chinese New Year in Manila. The display
highlights the Philippines’s deep-rooted trade and cultural connections with China, from centuries-old Chinese-Filipino businesses in Binondo—the country’s historic Chinatown—to modern economic partnerships. NONIE REYES
Govt, industries seek to end port utilization woes
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USTOMS authorities are stepping up efforts to improve overall port operations, following industry players’ complaints of rising yard congestion and slow container turnover. The Bureau of Customs (BOC) said on Sunday that it convened a stakeholders’ meeting last Friday at the Manila International Container Port (MICP) to come up with immediate and long-term solutions to address port utilization issues. According to the BOC, stakeholders raised operational concerns and offered suggestions on how the bureau can further support the industry in identifying practical and sustainable approaches to reduce yard utilization pressures.
Discussions centered on the need for closer coordination, data-driven strategies and responsive policies to ensure faster cargo movement while optimizing efficiency across the supply chain. Among the immediate potential solutions included reassessing actual yard capacity, reviewing the buildup of idle containers and improving systems for real-time monitoring of space utilization. Customs officials said they are studying possible adjustments to operations, regulations and digital systems to better match evolving industry needs. Customs Commissioner Ariel F. Nepomuceno ordered concerned offices to conduct further studies and review existing systems and benchmark global best prac-
tices to identify ways to boost efficiency while protecting revenue collection. MICP also presented trends in yard utilization rates covering 2024, 2025, and 2026 during the meeting, outlining key variables affecting operational capacity, cargo dwell time, vessel traffic volume and overall port efficiency. The data showed evolving operational demands and the factors influencing yard management, particularly during peak seasons. Nepomuceno told BusinessMirror earlier that despite the month of January being a lean season, congestion persisted as the ports became clogged in December last year. (See: https://businessmirror.com.ph/2026/02/11/boc-
to-meet-stakeholders-to-tackle-port-congestion/). This is also on top of the early shipment of Chinese exporters, anticipating the Chinese New Year. As of February 13, the overall yard utilization rate at MICP is at 84.23 percent, while it’s at 86.62 percent in the Port of Manila. Both the BOC and industry groups agreed to sustain dialogue and collaboration to address bottlenecks, align strategies and support smoother trade flows. The BOC said the meeting is the first of a series of consultations and will continue to hold regular engagements with industry partners to strengthen coordination and improve overall port operations. Reine Juvierre S. Alberto
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 58.1800 n JAPAN 0.3810 n UK 79.2819 n HK 7.4437 n CHINA 8.4278 n SINGAPORE 46.1088 n AUSTRALIA 41.2380 n EU 69.0713 n KOREA 0.0404 n SAUDI ARABIA 15.5138 Source: BSP (February 13, 2026)