Experts: Inflation still benign despite strong USD By Justine Xyrah Garcia
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NFLATION in January may have hit an 11-month high, but economists are not pressing the panic button just yet—even with the government projecting a weaker peso in the coming years. The cautious tone comes as the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) on Wednesday released its updated medium-term macroeconomic assumptions, projecting the peso to trade between P58 and P60 against the US dollar from this year until 2028. The Philippine Statistics Au-
A TAP TOWARD JOBS: TESDA LAUNCHES SKILLS APP The Technical Education and
Skills Development Authority (TESDA) on Thursday, February 5, 2026, officially launched the TESDA Skills Passport, a mobile-first, all-in-one digital app linking Filipinos to training, certification, scholarship, and employment services. The launch, held at the Makabagong San Juan Theater, featured President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. as keynote speaker, with TESDA Director General Kiko Benitez introducing the app as part of the agency’s push to modernize technicalvocational education and training (TVET) and widen access to skills development for Filipino learners and workers. Story below. ROY DOMINGO
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thority (PSA) reported on Thursday that headline inflation averaged 2 percent in January 2026, faster than the 1.8 percent recorded in December 2025, but still slower than the 2.9 percent posted in January 2025. The January print marked the highest inflation rate in 11 months, or since the 2.1 percent logged in February 2025. Despite the pickup, former Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Dante B. Canlas said inflation is likely to remain within the central bank’s target range in the nearterm, barring major shocks to food and energy prices.
He noted that weaker aggregate demand is also helping temper price pressures, creating a “moderating effect” on inflation. “Unless profound input price shocks in food and energy materialize, I don’t see a surge in inflation…For subsequent months, we go by the data, that is, we wait if there are fresh shocks to the economy to assess inflationary impacts,” Canlas told the BusinessMirror. Canlas said the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) should also “go easy” in cutting interest rates to “avoid further weakening of the peso against the US dollar.”
For Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) Senior Research Fellow John Paolo R. Rivera, a possible weakening of the peso to P60 per dollar could result in a mild but persistent pass-through to inflation, mainly through higher import costs for “fuel, transport, and some food items.” “But the impact this year should remain manageable as global commodity prices are relatively stable and domestic demand is still subdued, meaning currency driven inflation will likely be incremental rather than sharp,” Rivera told the BusinessMirror. See “Inflation,” A2
BusinessMirror A broader look at today’s business
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PESO WEAKNESS SEEN PERSISTING UNTIL 2030 www.businessmirror.com.ph
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Friday, February 6, 2026 Vol. 21 No. 117
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By Reine Juvierre S. Alberto
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@reine_alberto
HE Marcos Jr. administration’s economic managers are bracing for a prolonged period of peso weakness, as they have projected that the local currency could reach P60 per dollar over the next 5 years. The peso is expected to hover at P58 to P60 against the greenback starting this year until 2030, according to the Development Budget Coordination Committee’s (DBCC) macroeconomic assumptions in its 192nd meeting, which were disclosed on February 4. According to experts, the economic managers are just “being realistic” when they assume that the local currency will further depreciate. “The P58 to P60 range looks more like prudent budgeting than a surrender to weakness,” Robert Dan J. Roces, SM Investments Corporation group economist, told the BusinessMirror. “Planners are being realistic, not pessimistic.” With this range, Roces said it provides the government a cushion against a strong US dollar and higher global interest rates. However, Jonathan L. Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., told the BusinessMirror that a weaker peso would exert pressure on consumer prices. “A weaker peso is basically an imported‑inflation engine—food, fuel, and even power costs rise because so much of what we consume is priced in dollars,” he said. Roces shared the same sentiment, but noted that the pass-through will be gradual and not sudden. “It stays manageable if policy remains tight.” On the positive side, Roces said exporters, and the business process outsourcing and tourism sectors will benefit. Remittances from overseas Filipinos will also increase in peso terms, he added. However, these gains can be offset by higher costs of imports and capital spending. As to its fiscal drag, Ravelas said a weaker currency makes the government’s foreign debt more expensive, which tightens its fiscal space. “[A weaker peso] squeezes households, slows business spending, and ultimately drags on gross domestic product [GDP],” he added. See “Peso,” A2
US, PH LAUNCH OFFICIAL LOGO FOR 80TH ANNIVERSARY OF DIPLOMATIC TIES US Embassy in the Philippines Chargé d’Affaires Robert Ewing and Philippine Ambassador to the United States Jose Manuel Romualdez
unveiled the official logo commemorating the 80th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the United States and the Philippines. The launch, held February 5, 2026, at the SM MOA Globe in Pasay City, marks the beginning of a yearlong campaign led by the US Embassy in the Philippines, together with the Philippine Embassy and Consulates General in the United States, celebrating the enduring partnership, friendship, and alliance between the two nations. ROY DOMINGO
TESDA USES BLOCKCHAIN ‘BSP path to easing gets tougher’ FOR SKILLS MOBILE APP By Samuel P. Medenilla
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@sam_medenilla
RESIDENT Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said the new blockchain-secured, onestop mobile application of the Technical Education and Skills Development Authority (TESDA) will enhance the connectivity of jobseekers to training as well as employment opportunities. The chief executive led the launch of the TESDA Skills Passport Mobile Application at the Makabagong San Juan National Government Center in San Juan
City last Thursday. This is Marcos’ first public appearance outside of the Malacañang Palace since he was hospitalized last month after being diagnosed with diverticulitis, a medical condition where the large intestine suffers from inflammation. “Through the TESDA Skills Passport Mobile Application, we now have an all-in-one digital platform,” he said in Filipino in his speech during the event. TESDA trainees can view scholarship, employment opportunities, TESDA-accredited See “Blockchain,” A2
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ITH January’s inflation print above market expectations, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) path to further monetary policy easing may have become “murkier,” according to HSBC Global Investment Research. In a commentary, HSBC Asean economist Aris Dacanay said the rise in core consumer price index (CPI), driven by higher water and restaurant service prices, as well as rising costs in restaurants, recreation, personal care, and health, could “complicate” the BSP’s plans for more rate cuts. The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Thursday that inflation averaged 2 percent in January 2026, faster than
the 1.8 percent recorded in December 2025, but still slower than the 2.9 percent posted in January 2025. (See: https://businessmirror.com.ph/2026/02/05/housing-utilities-push-inflation-upto-2-in-january/). “All in all, we think January’s CPI has made the path to further rate cuts rougher,” Dacanay said. While economic growth has slowed to its slowest pace since 2011, Dacanay said inflation has not been as benign as warranted over the past two months. Despite the upside surprise in headline inflation, Dacanay said HSBC still expects the BSP to cut its policy rate in February, as it expects growth concerns to outweigh inflation.
“Being outlook-dependent is important,” Dacanay said, pointing to factors, such as rice policy adjustments following the lifting of the rice import ban and cooling demand from weak household consumption and decline in public spending. “If the BSP were to decide to pause its easing cycle, we think it would only be a postponement of easing, not a complete derailment,” Dacanay added. Meanwhile, after the January inflation print was released, the BSP reiterated that the Monetary Board, its highest policy-making body, sees the monetary policy easing cycle nearing its end. “Any further easing is likely to See “BSP,” A2
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 58.9680 n JAPAN 0.3760 n UK 80.5444 n HK 7.5482 n CHINA 8.4907 n SINGAPORE 46.3549 n AUSTRALIA 41.2599 n EU 69.6294 n KOREA 0.0403 n SAUDI ARABIA 15.7248 Source: BSP (February 5, 2026)